From the Heir of Pierre Trudeau to the Heir Apparent:
The Justin Trudeau Juggernaut Enigma

Toronto, ON - Despite the fact that a majority (70%) of Canadians believe the Liberals will rule again someday and that six in ten (61%) think the Grits under Justin Trudeau have the best chance of beating Prime Minister Harper's governing Tories (a majority of current NDP voters think so too), a strong majority (73%) believe that if he wasn't his father's son he would not be where he is today. A majority (65%) of Liberal voters think so too.

Further, the Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Postmedia and Global Television reveals that, with the election of Justin Trudeau expected to be a landslide victory, most (69%) say that `the leadership race has been too easy for Trudeau, and it's turning into a coronation in which he has not had to prove himself.' Even a majority (57%) of Liberal supporters think this.

And while half (50%) of Canadians say they think they know where Justin Trudeau would lead the country, only one in ten (11%) identify strongly with this sentiment. This may be the Achilles Heel of the new leader that will be pounced upon by the Conservatives: great looking "Burgermeister", but where's the beef?

Yet, none of this seems to matter just yet as an Ipsos poll released yesterday reveals a statistical tie between the Tories (31%) and Grits (32%). It appears, however, that many Canadians might be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and let him grow into his new position. Hope alone might win the day, but that hope will be tested in the lead up to the next election.

Despite the public adulation, support for a merger among the Liberals and the NDP has edged higher among supporters of both parties.

A Return to Power for the Liberals Under Trudeau?

Most believe that the Liberals will someday rule again, when just four months ago only 56% thought that they would (an increase of 14 points). Fully seven in ten (70%) Canadians `agree' (24% strongly/46% somewhat) that `the Liberal Party will someday return to power as Canada's government', while just three in ten (30%) `disagree' (9% strongly/21% somewhat).

It appears that most think Justin Trudeau is the only way to counter Harper-Tory dominance, with six in ten (61%) Canadians `agreeing' (19% strongly/41% somewhat) that `a Liberal Party under the leadership of Justin Trudeau is the best chance of beating the Harper Conservatives in the next federal election'. Four in ten (39%) though `disagree' (15% strongly/24% somewhat) that a Trudeau-led Liberal Party is the best chance to defeat the Tories. Interestingly, six in ten (59%) NDP supporters `agree' (12% strongly/47% somewhat) that they believe Trudeau stands the best chance, suggesting that more of the anti-Harper vote that has recently been with the NDP might move towards the Liberals.

Trudeau Popular Despite Apparent Lack of Substance...

The fact that he is the son of a charismatic former Prime Minister appears to be helping Justin Trudeau gain credibility. Three quarters (73%) of Canadians `agree' (28% strongly/45% somewhat) that `if Justin Trudeau weren't Pierre Trudeau's son nobody would be interested in his political views and he wouldn't be seriously considered for the leadership of the Liberal Party'. Even two thirds (65%) of current Liberal supporters believe this to be true. Overall, just three in ten (27%) Canadians `disagree' (6% strongly/21% somewhat) that nobody would pay attention to Justin if Pierre weren't his father.

Canadians are split on whether the buzz surrounding Trudeau is legitimate or just hype. Half (53%) `agree' (20% strongly/33% somewhat) that `Justin Trudeau is nothing but media hype', but the other half (47%) `disagree' (15% strongly/32% somewhat).

In fact, just half (50%) of Canadians also `agree' (11% strongly/39% somewhat) that they `know what Justin Trudeau stands for and where he would lead Canada'. The other half of Canadians `disagree' (15% strongly/35% somewhat) that they know what Trudeau stands for. In fact, one quarter (25%) of Liberal supporters say they don't know what he stands for, yet would still cast a ballot for him.

Trudeau and the Liberal Leadership Race...

With the election of Justin Trudeau expected to be a landslide victory, seven in ten (69%) Canadians `agree' (25% strongly/44% somewhat) that `the leadership race has been too easy for Trudeau, and it's turning into a coronation in which he has not had to prove himself.' Even a majority (57%) of Liberal supporters think this is the case. One in three (31%) Canadians overall, though, `disagree' (7% strongly/25% somewhat) with this sentiment.

The data suggest that his popularity might be more about his style than substance: six in ten (57%) `agree' (16% strongly/41% somewhat) that `Justin Trudeau represents a refreshing new way of doing politics that we desperately need these days', while four in ten (43%) `disagree' (18% strongly/26% somewhat) that he brings a fresh approach.

Support for Liberal-NDP Merger Edges Higher Among Liberal/NDP Voters...

When it comes to agreement on whether or not `the federal NDP and the Liberal Party should merge to create a new national party with a new, commonly-elected leader, to defeat the Harper Conservatives in the next federal election', nearly half (45%, 15% strongly/30% somewhat) of current Liberal voters, and half (51%, 14% strongly/36% somewhat) of NDP voters `agree' that they should merge. For the Liberals, this represents an increase of 4 points among their own voters, and an increase of 7 points among NDP voters. But among Liberal voters, the `strongly disagree' faction is strong at 25%, with another 30% somewhat disagreeing with the idea of a merger (55% disagree in total). Among NDP supporters, 15% strongly disagree with another 35% somewhat disagreeing with the idea of a merger (49% disagree in total).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between March 28th to April 3rd, 2013, on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television. For this survey, a sample of 1,053 Canadians, from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the samples composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.4 percentage points had all Canadians adults been surveyed. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world's third largest market research company.

With offices in 85 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,789 billion (2.300 billion USD) in 2012.