Hudak's Ontario PCs Advance Smartly as Potential Election Looms

Toronto, ON - Tim Hudak and the Ontario PC Party are smartly advancing their vote support in all the right places (in the 905 and 519), increasing their provincial lead to 5 points, according to a new Ipsos Reid Poll conducted for CTV News, CP24 and Newstalk 1010.

A lingering gas-plant scandal and recent allegations that Premier Kathleen Wynne's office was involved in deleting emails and computer data appears to have driven motivated voters to the Tories, while Liberal support is lacklustre as the Liberals move left to try and capture NDP votes and the NDP moves towards the centre to counter the maneuver. Given the Liberal's relative weakness, NDP Andrea Horwath will have to consider whether the time is right for her to bring down the government once the budget is tabled.

If a provincial election were held tomorrow, the Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak would receive 37% support among decided voters (up 3 points), while Premier Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals would receive 32% of the vote (up 1 point). Andrea Horwath and her NDP are very much in the hunt at 27% support (down 4 points), while some other party (including the Green Party) would receive 5% of the vote (up 1 point). Two in ten (20%) Ontarians remain undecided, which is a very high percentage.

With a relatively tight national race among the three major parties, each party draws its core support from different areas of the province.

• The Liberals (40%) show the most strength in Toronto proper (416 area code), followed by the NDP (33%), the PCs (24%), and others (4%).
• In the equally seat-rich 905 area code of the GTA, the Tories (47%) have a commanding lead over the Liberals (27%), NDP (21%) and others (5%).
• In Southwestern Ontario, the race is tighter, but the PCs (37%) have built a lead over the Liberals (30%), NDP (27%) and others (5%). This is where the movement has occurred. In Ipsos' last poll in February, the NDP (43%) were well up on the Liberals (29%) and the Tories (22%).
• In Eastern Ontario, the Tories (39%) also lead the Grits (34%), NDP (24%) and others (3%).
• In Northern Ontario, the NDP (43%) have a clear advantage over the Liberals (31%), PCs (18%) and others (8%).

Liberal Vote Poised to Stay Home, Tories Most Motivated...

While the overall figures present a picture of a horserace that is still fairly tight, examining the vote among committed voters presents a drastically different story. Among the 49% of Ontarians who say that `nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote', the Tory vote strengthens, while the Liberal vote collapses. In short, a low turnout suggests Liberal voters are staying home. Among likely voters:

• The Tories strengthen to 42% of the vote (up 5 points)
• The Liberals soften to 27% of the vote (down 5 points)
• NDP support remains solid at 27% of the vote (unchanged)
• Support for other parties weakens to 4% (down 1 point).

While an election has not been called, if these figures hold true, the Liberals would likely be crushed on their right flank while trying to fend off an attack from an emboldened NDP which is putting up a strong fight for centrist ground historically occupied by the Liberals, who have veered left.

It remains to be seen whether the Liberal government will readjust their trajectory again to be more centrist to compete with the Tories, or if they'll continue to bear left and do battle with the NDP. The NDP, on the other hand, will have to convince Ontarians that they are a viable alternative to a PC government in order to woo disenchanted Liberals to their camp.

One in Three (32%) Believe Wynne Government Deserves Re-Election...

A figure that often closely mirrors the vote support the incumbent receives on Election Day, one in three (32%) Ontarians believe that the `Wynne government has done a good job and deserves re-election', up 1 point since the last sounding in February. In contrast, two in three (68%) Ontarians more closely believe that it is `time for another provincial party to take over'.

Further, just four in ten (42%) believe that `Ontario is currently on the right track', although this is up 2 points. Conversely, six in ten (58%) believe it is `headed in the wrong direction', down 2 points).

Hudak Creeps Marginally Ahead as Choice for Best Premier...

While still polling behind his party, PC Leader Tim Hudak has been chosen by 32% of Ontarians as the party leader who would make the best Premier of Ontario (up 4 points). However, it remains a three-way race with Premier Kathleen Wynne (31%, unchanged), and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath (28%, down 4 points). One in ten (9%) believe Green Party leader Mike Schreiner would make the best Premier of Ontario (unchanged).

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These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between April 15 to 17, 2014, on behalf of CTV, CP24 and Newstalk 1010. For this survey, a sample of 813 Ontarians, from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/-4 percentage points had all adults in Ontario been surveyed.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]

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