If Election Were Held Tomorrow, Liberals (40%) Would Be Poised for Majority with 10-Point Lead over Conservatives (30%)

Toronto, ON, April 12, 2021 – If a federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would be poised for a majority victory, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.

The results of the poll reveal that the incumbent Liberals under Justin Trudeau would receive 40% of the national decided popular vote (up 5 points since last month), while Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives would receive 30% of the vote (up 2 points) from last month. The progressive vote appears to be consolidating behind the Liberals as Jagmeet Singh and the NDP are losing steam and would garner only 13% of the vote (down 3 points), while the Green and other parties would receive 8% of the vote collectively, down 5 points since month.  The Bloc led by Yves-Francois Blanchet would receive 35% of the vote within Quebec, which translates to 9% of the vote nationally (up 2 points). Nearly two in ten Canadians either would not vote (7%) or remain undecided (12%).

The key to the rising Liberal fortunes is a very strong performance for the federal government within Ontario:

• Within Ontario, the Liberals (49%) have a commanding lead over the Conservatives (33%), with the NDP (12%), Greens (5%) and others (2%) trailing.
• Within Quebec, the Liberals (35%) and Bloc (35%) are in a dead heat, ahead of the Conservatives (17%), NDP (8%) and Green Party (4%).
• Within British Columbia, the Liberals (41%) have a strong lead over the Conservatives (29%), NDP (17%), Green Party (10%) and others (3%).
• In Alberta, the Conservatives (46%) remain well ahead of the Liberals (25%), NDP (21%), green parties (1%) or others (7%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (48%) have a large lead over the Liberals (23%), NDP (17%), Green Party (5%) and others (7%).
• In Atlantic Canada the Liberals (56%) have a commanding lead over the Conservatives (24%), NDP (11%), Green Party (3%) and others (7%).

The Liberals are also in the driver’s seat among most of the gender and age segments studied. Importantly, the Liberals are 15-points ahead of the Conservatives among Boomers, which is driving underlying support for the Prime Minister higher:

• Among women, the Liberals (42%) have a double-digit lead over the Conservatives (28%), NDP (16%), Bloc (8%), Greens (4%) and others (3%).
• Among men, the Liberals (39%) also lead the Conservatives (32%), NDP (11%), Bloc (10%), Greens (5%) and others (3%). This is a segment that the Conservatives traditionally have need to own in order to be competitive.
• Among those aged 18-34, the Liberal (40%) lead over the Tories (27%) is strong. The NDP (18%) has its strongest performance among this segment, as does the Green Party (10%), while other parties trail (3%). By contrast, the Bloc does not do as well (2%).
• Among those aged 35-54, the Liberals (36%) are statistically tied with the Tories (34%), with the NDP (13%), Bloc (13%), Greens (2%) and others (2%) well behind.
• Among those aged 55+ -- the segment typically most likely to show up at the ballot box – the Liberals have a 15-point lead over the Tories (29%), with the NDP (10%), Bloc (10%), Greens (3%) and others (4%) well behind. With vaccinations well underway for most of his age group, they now appear to be rewarding the Prime Minister with their vote intentions.

Underscoring the strong national vote intentions for the incumbent Liberal government are strong underlying fundamentals:

• Half (51%) of Canadians approve (10% strongly/41% somewhat) of the performance of the Liberal government under the leadership of Justin Trudeau. When examining approval ratings in July of 2019, a few months prior to the fall General Election that year that saw the Prime Minister re-elected with a minority government, the Prime Minister’s approval rating was only 39%.
• Over four in ten (44%) Canadians believe that the Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has done a good job and deserves re-election (a figure that typically tracks within a few points of the popular vote the incumbent receives on Election Day), while 56% believe it’s time for another party to take over. By comparison, in July 2019, only 33% believed that the Prime Minister deserved re-election, while 67% said it was time for another party to take over.
• Justin Trudeau is chosen by 42% of Canadians as the party leader who would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, running slightly ahead of his party’s vote support. Only one quarter (25%) would say the same about Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, who is running behind his party’s vote support by 5 points. Fewer believe that Jagmeet Singh (17%), Yves-François Blanchet (8%) or Annamie Paul (7%) would make the best Prime Minister. By comparison, in August of 2019, Andrew Scheer (32%) had a slight advantage over Justin Trudeau (30%) on being picked as the best Prime Minister.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 7-9, 2021, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

© 2021, Ipsos Limited Partnership

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