Issues and Attitudes in a 1998 POST-ELECTION Quebec
Issues and Attitudes in a 1998 POST-ELECTION Quebec
Quebecers' views on the referendum questions? NO and NO
Quebecers focus more on Canadian renewal, less on sovereignty
The results presented here are taken from telephone surveys conducted during the Quebec election campaign. All samples were of 1,000 Quebec residents. The first source is a SRC/ CBC/Le Devoir/Angus Reid Group survey, conducted between November 4 and November 9, 1998 (released on November 12th and 13th), while the second source is a SRC/Angus Reid Group survey, fielded between November 18 to the 23, 1998 (released on the November 24th).
These data are representative of the distribution of the Quebec population along all key demographic variables including Mother Tongue. As well, the distribution of the interviews across the province is representative of the geographic distribution of the population.
Samples of this size are said to be representative of the Quebec voting population +3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Smaller sub-samples will have a larger margin of error.
On November 30, 1998 Quebecers re-elected the Parti Quйbйcois to their second majority government: PQ - 75 seats; Liberals - 48 seats; and, the ADQ - 1 seat. In doing so, they sent mixed messages to Premier Bouchard on the issue of Quebec sovereignty. Two separate surveys conducted by the Angus Reid Group during the run-up to the Quebec election provide the following insights.
The Constitutional issue in Quebec: The YES trails the NO in referendum voting intentions; however, the status quo is not satisfactory...
If a referendum on sovereignty-partnership had been held at the time of this survey, 47% of decided voters would have voted YES, while 53% would have voted NO. If the referendum had been on the issue of independence, 33% would have voted YES, compared to 67% of respondents who would have supported the NO side. Finally, 71% of respondents believe that Quebec should remain a province of Canada, compared to 27% who do not. (Table 4)
What about the "ideal" political system for Quebecers? When asked to choose between four options, sovereignty-partnership (37%) and a decentralized federation (26%) were preferred over the status quo (18%) or independence (16%). (Table 5)
Quebecers want Bouchard to renew the federation, but don't think he will try...
When asked what Premier Bouchard should do if re-elected, 73% of respondents said he should "try to improve Quebec's position in the Canadian federation", while only 24% answered "start working on establishing the winning conditions necessary for a referendum on sovereignty". This also includes 60% of PQ supporters who hope for renewal. However, when Quebecers were asked what they believe Premier Bouchard would actually do, 32% felt he would try to improve the federation, while 64% thought he would try to start working at establishing the winning conditions for a referendum. (Table 2)
Reforming the federation: It is possible.
Close to two in three (63%) felt it is "possible" to renew the federation in a way that satisfies both Quebec and the rest of Canada, while 35% believed this was "impossible". In total, 41% of PQ supporters believe renewal is possible compared to 89% of Liberal supporters and 65% of ADQ supporters. (Table 3)
For more information please contact:
Bob Richardson
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900
Christian Bourque
Senior Research Director
Angus Reid Group
(514) 877-5550
