Leading Up to August 1st Deadline, Canadians Split on Whether Trump is Bluffing on Tariffs

A new Ipsos poll finds that Canadians are split on whether President Trump is bluffing about his stated plan to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods by August 1st. Prime Minister Carney now must navigate a difficult political landscape; responding to a rapidly shifting global order while contending with a divided public at home. Ultimately, the prime minister’s leadership will be tested by his ability to protect Canada’s economic prosperity and deliver on his election promises in an era of unprecedented trade uncertainty.  With other countries accepting a base tariff in exchange for a deal, the prime minister faces the choice of either betting that the president is bluffing or following other nations in getting the best deal he can before August 1st, and convincing Canadians that this was the right approach.
 

A demographic divide emerged on the issue. On one side, those who felt the president was bluffing were typically from Ontario (40%), university-educated (43%), or earned over $100k (48%). In contrast, those who believed he was serious were more likely to be from Quebec (40%) or have a middle-class income (40%). Men were more likely to hold a firm view either way than women, and GenZ (21%) and those with a high school education or less (21%) were more likely to not know enough to say.
 
 

As the United States secures trade deals with the European Union and Japan, Canada could find itself increasingly isolated. 

This international pressure is mirrored by uncertainty at home, with these polling results showing Canadians divided on whether the president's tariff threat is a serious intention or simply a negotiation tactic. 

This split reflects a broader climate of economic and political unease, leaving the government without a clear public mandate on how to proceed.

Now, President Trump is warning that Canada may be left out, forcing the country to pay a heavy tariff. Taking the president at his word means the pressure is on Prime Minister Mark Carney to salvage a deal and protect Canada's interests.

Canada's window to act is closing fast. It must now choose whether to make a deal, play for more time, or forge a new path.
 

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between July 14 and 16, 2025 as part of our Trump, Tariffs and Turmoil syndicated study.  For this survey, a sample of n=2,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

For more information, please contact:
Gregory Jack
Senior Vice President, Public Affairs (Canada)
[email protected]
 

Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing nearly 20,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 business solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

“Game Changers” – our tagline – summarizes our ambition to help our 5,000 clients navigate with confidence our rapidly changing world.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120, Mid-60 indices, STOXX Europe 600 and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).
http://www.ipsos.com/