Liberal Juggernaut Appears Headed Towards Majority Government . . . With Liberals (48%) Leading Conservatives (31%) and NDP (15%) in Decided Voter Support in Post-Debate Poll
The Liberals (48%, down 2 points from the pre-debate Ipsos-Reid poll released on Monday, September 22) continue to hold a 17-point lead over Ernie Eves and the Progressive Conservatives (31%, down 2 points), while Howard Hampton and the NDP (15%, up 3 points) and Frank de Jong and the Green Party (3%, down 1 point) remain far behind and out of the race. One in eight (13%, down 2 points) Ontarians are undecided as to which party they plan on supporting, while one percent say they will not vote.
A seat projection model*, provided exclusively by G.P. Murray Research Limited, a government relations and information services company located in Toronto, indicates that if these polling numbers hold to election day, the seat distribution in the Ontario Legislature could translate into Liberals 72, Progressive Conservatives 22 and the NDP 9.
As for why people are voting Liberal, of the 48% who express support for the Liberals, a majority (52%) say they are planning to vote for the Liberals more `because they personally support the Liberal platform and what the Liberals are promising', than they are voting Liberal `not so much for what the Liberals stand for, but because they just want to vote the Conservatives out of office' (36%). One in ten (9%) say that it is actually due to `both reasons'.
History has shown that debates can be the defining point in an election campaign. The 1960 Kennedy-Nixon debate, the 1984 Turner-Mulroney debate and the 1999 Ontario debate with Howard Hampton, Dalton McGuinty and former Premier Mike Harris are just some examples. This past Tuesday, four in ten (42%) of the Ontario electorate, report watching all or some of the leader's debate in which Dalton McGuinty, Howard Hampton and debate newcomer Ernie Eves squared off against each other for 90 minutes. According to Ontarians who actually watched the debate, the verdict is split, with 25% feeling that Mr. Hampton was the winner, 24% identifying Mr. McGuinty as the victor, and 22% saying the winner was Mr. Eves. Twenty-three percent of viewers say that no leader won the debate.
However, when Ontarians who did not watch the debate, but may have been influenced by the news coverage in the days following, are added in with those that did watch, and based on what they have seen, read or heard of the debate, a different view emerges. One in four (25%) Ontarians in total say that none of the leaders emerged as the winner of the face-off. Just as many however, feel that Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty (23%), in fact, won the debate. Of the other two leaders, an equal number believe that NDP leader, Howard Hampton (16%) or Progressive Conservative leader, Ernie Eves (16%) was the winner of the debate.
When asked which of the three main party leaders would make the `best Premier' of Ontario, the incumbent, Mr. Eves (33%, down 4 points from the pre-debate poll) continues to lead Mr. McGuinty (28%, down 2 points), while Mr. Hampton (16%, up 3 points) remains in third spot on this measure. One in four (24%, up 5 points) say they `don't know' which leader would make the `best Premier'.
And finally, asked if Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals are elected on October 2nd, and they discover that the province's finances are in worse shape then they expected, how they should proceed with their election promises, six in ten (59%) feel they "should not increase taxes or the deficit and should find additional savings within the system of current government services in order to fulfill their campaign promises". This compares to one in five (18%) that would approve a Liberal government increasing taxes to fulfill their campaign promises and one in ten (11%) who feel a Liberal government should not increases taxes, but increase the provincial deficit, in order to fulfill their campaign promises if they find that the provincial finances are in worse shape than previously thought.
These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CFTO/CFRB/Globe and Mail poll conducted between Wednesday, September 24th and Thursday, September 25th, 2003. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,001 adult Ontarians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontario population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontario population according to the 2001 Census data.
*The seat projection formula was developed by Alan Hall, an experienced electoral statistician, for the G.P. Murray Research Ontario Election Almanac 2003 and provided exclusively to Ipsos-Reid for this latest poll. The model does not attempt to project actual results on a regional or individual riding basis, but projects strictly on the basis of published province-wide polling results. The model has been customized to take into account of Ontario's three-party system and comparative historical vote efficiency strengths of each of the parties.
To view the complete media release including regional and demographic information, and the detailed tables, please open the attached PDF files.
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For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
