Liberals (36%, +3) Bounce ahead of Conservatives (31%, -1) After Throne Speech and PM’s Televised Address

Toronto, ON, October 7, 2020 – The Liberals have enjoyed a modest bounce in the national popular vote following the Liberal government’s Throne Speech and the televised address made by the Prime Minister, breaking the statistical tie between themselves and the Conservative party.

According to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News, if an election were held tomorrow 36% of decided voters would vote for Prime Minister Trudeau’s Liberal party (up 3 points), while 31% (down 1 point) would vote for the Conservative party led by Erin O’Toole. The NDP under Jagmeet Singh (18%) has slipped slightly (down 2 points), while support for the Green Party (6%) has also declined (down 2 points). The Bloc Quebecois, led by Yves-Francois Blanchet, has 7% of the vote nationally (up 1 point), or 28% of the vote within Quebec. One percent (1%) of Canadians would vote for some other party, while two in ten either don’t know (16%) who they would vote for or say they wouldn’t vote (4%).

While the national picture is positive for the Liberals, the regional data is more mixed. However, such a significant lead in Ontario bodes well for the incumbent government.

• In Ontario, the Liberals (41%) have a double-digit lead over the Conservatives (29%), while the NDP (21%) and Green party (7%) trail.
• In Quebec, The Liberals (29%) and Bloc (28%) are running even, with the Tories (20%), NDP (14%) and Greens (6%) behind.
• In British Columbia, the Liberals (42%) have pulled out ahead of the Conservatives (27%), NDP (21%) and Green Party (9%).
• In Alberta, the Conservatives (58%) enjoy their traditional lead over the Liberals (23%), NDP (13%) and Greens (3%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (54%) also lead the Liberals (26%), NDP (16%) and Greens (3%).
• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (50%) have a large lead over the Conservatives (30%), NDP (16%) and Green Party (4%).

Notably, the while the Conservatives have traditionally done the best among Canadians aged 55+, the Liberals presently have the advantage among this demographic:

• Among those aged 55+, the Liberals (41%) are ahead of the Conservatives (35%), NDP (11%), Bloc (6%) and Greens (6%).
• Among those aged 35-54, the Conservatives (34%) and Liberals (33%) are tied, with the NDP (19%) Bloc (7%) and Greens (6%) further behind.
• Among those aged 18-34, the Liberal party (34%) has a solid lead ahead of the NDP (27%), Conservatives (23%), Bloc (8%) and Greens (7%).

While the Conservatives have a slight lead among men, the Liberals have a double-digit lead among women:

• Among men, the Conservatives (36%) are ahead of the Liberals (34%) only slightly, while the NDP (14%), Bloc (9%), and Greens (6%) are further behind.
• Among women, the Liberals (39%) are preferred, well ahead of the Conservatives (26%), NDP (23%), Greens (6%) and Bloc (4%).

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 29 and October 1, 2020, conducted online among a sample of n = 1000 Canadians aged 18+ via the Ipsos I-Say panel. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

© 2020, Ipsos Limited Partnership

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