Liberals Down But Not Out as Majority (56%) of Canadians Believe Liberals Will Some Day Return to Power under Next Leader

Toronto, ON - Most Canadians are confident that the Liberals -- once Canada's natural governing party--will return to power sometime under the reign of its next leader, according to a new poll conducted by Ipsos Reid on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television. A majority (56%) of Canadians `agree' (13% strongly/44% somewhat) that `the Liberal Party, led by the person who wins the current leadership race, will someday return to power as Canada's government'. A minority (44%) of Canadians, on the other hand, `disagree' (12% strongly/31% somewhat) that the next Liberal leader will one day be Prime Minister.

Atlantic Canadians (72%) are most likely to `agree' that the Liberals will return to power someday under their next leader, followed by Quebecers (63%), Ontarians (58%), British Columbians (50%), residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (46%), and Albertans (42%).

Canadians recognize a front-runner from among five Liberal candidates already registered for the race at the time of fielding (Dec 7-12, 2012). Seven in ten (69%) Canadians say they expect Justin Trudeau, son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, to win the race and become the next leader of the Liberal Party. Two in ten (19%) expect Marc Garneau, the Liberal critic for Natural Resources, to win the upcoming leadership race. One in twenty expect Martha Hall Findlay (5%) or Joyce Murray (5%) to be victorious in the leadership contest, while 2% expect Deborah Coyne to win.

These expectations line up closely with the candidate Canadians believe has the best chance of beating the Harper Conservatives in the next federal election. A majority (62%) believe that Justin Trudeau has the best chance to beat the governing Harper Conservatives in 2015, while one-quarter (24%) believe Marc Garneau has the best chance. One in ten (6%) believe former leadership candidate Martha Hall Findlay would have the best chance of beating the Harper Conservatives, while 4% believe either Joyce Murray or Deborah Coyne would be best able to dethrone Prime Minister Harper and the Conservatives.

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Many Canadians, however, aren't confident that any party can defeat the Conservatives without cooperating with each other at some level, due to vote splitting on the centre-left and the presence of a united right. Half of Canadians (51%) `agree' (14% strongly/37%) that `in the end, the three parties in opposition - the NDP, Liberals and Greens - will not be able to beat the Harper Conservatives on their own, so they should work out an arrangement so they don't compete against each other and split the anti-conservative vote'. Conversely, the other half (49%) `disagree' that the three opposition parties should have such an agreement.

Quebecers (69%) are the most likely to `agree' that the opposition parties should enter into a non-compete agreement, followed by Atlantic Canadians (60%), Ontarians (47%), residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (46%), Albertans (39%), and British Columbians (38%).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between December 7th to 12th, 2012, on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television. For this survey, a sample of 1,021 Canadians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case the poll is accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points of the entire Canadian adult population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Public Affairs
416.324.2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world's third largest market research company.

With offices in 84 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,363 billion (1.897 billion USD) in 2011.

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