Liberals Drop to New Low (24%) under Ignatieff as
NDP (19%) in the Hunt for Grit Votes

Toronto, ON - After taking repeated hits from the right flank by the Harper Conservatives, it now appears that the NDP are moving in to attack Michael Ignatieff's Liberals on the left flank, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television. In a political pincer attack, the NDP have charged ahead to 19% support nationally while the Liberals have retreated to 24% support, a new low for the Grits under Michael Ignatieff.

A relatively poor showing in the recently-held by-elections underscores the problems that Opposition Leader Michael Ignatieff is having resonating with the public. Recent attacks on the government for partisan appointments and stimulus hand-outs, as well as allegations that Canadian Forces knowingly handed over Afghani detainees to certain torture, have failed to propel the faltering Liberals.

If an election were held tomorrow, 37% of decided voters would support Prime Minister Harper and the Conservative Party, down 3 points from last month. Still struggling to convince voters that his Party is the government-in-waiting, only 24% of Canadians would vote for Michael Ignatieff's Liberal Party (down 1 point).

The NDP under Jack Layton has surged 6 points over the last month and would now receive the support of 19% of decided voters nationally, bringing them to within only 5 points of the Liberal Party. The Green Party led by Elizabeth May would receive 10% support (down 1 point), while Gilles Duceppe's Bloc would receive 9% of the vote nationally (down 2 points). Seven percent (7%) of voters are undecided.

The change in the national figures are being driven by shifting preferences in the seat-rich province of Ontario:

• The Tories would receive 39% of the vote in Ontario (-2), while the Liberals would garner 29% support (-3) if an election were held tomorrow. The NDP have surged 8 points to 21% support, while the Greens have dropped to 8% support (-6).

Quebec is also a key battleground due to the large number of seats in that province, but the Bloc still maintains a dominant lead:

• The Bloc would receive 38% support in Quebec if a vote were to be held tomorrow (-4), while the Grits (24%, +2) and the Tories (20%, +2) are well back. The NDP (12%, unchanged) and Green Party (7%, unchanged) lag.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television from November 17 to 19, 2009. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,003 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
President and CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]

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