Liberals Lead over Conservatives in Week One of Campaign

As the 2025 federal election campaign kicks off, the Liberal party led by Mark Carney continues to enjoy a national lead (44%, +2 pts vs. earlier this month) over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives (38%, +2 pts), extending to key regions such as Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. Support for Jagmeet Singh’s NDP (9%, -1 pt) continues to diminish as the progressive vote aligns under Carney. Twenty four percent of Quebec voters say they support the Bloc Québécois. Eight percent of voters say they are undecided. Half (52%) of decided voters say they are absolutely certain of their vote choice; Conservative voters (58%) are slightly more likely than Liberal voters (54%) to express certainty of vote, while NDP (37%) voters are less likely.

Nearly half (46%, +4 pts) say the Carney Liberal government has done a good job and deserves re-election. This is a figure that typically tracks closely to the proportion of the popular vote the incumbent government receives on Election Day. Conversely, 50% say it’s time for another federal party to take over in Ottawa, continuing the downward trend established once Carney took over the Liberal leadership. Four percent (4%) are either undecided or refused to answer. 
When asked about their opinion of the Liberal government, 48% of Canadians express approval, while 50% express disapproval, with 2% undecided or refused.
 

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between March 24 and 26, 2025, on behalf of Global News.  For this survey, a sample of n=1,500 eligible voters in Canada aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n=1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. A sample of n=500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed by live-interview telephone interviewers by landline and cellphone, using random-digit dialing. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/ 

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

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