Lower Number of Canadians Believe Economy Will Improve Over Next Year Than In March (33%; Down 9 Points)

Toronto, ONTARIO - Confidence in the Canadian economy is not as strong as that recorded in March of this year, according to a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today. While one-third (33%) of Canadians believe the economy will improve over the next year, this represents a drop of nine points when compared to the level recorded in March. A plurality of just under half (46%; up 2 points) believe the economy will remain about the same, while one in five (19%; up 5 points) say things will worsen for the Canadian economy over the next 12 months.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between July 16th and July 18th, 2002. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

Confidence in the Canadian economy is not as strong as recorded in March of this year. While one-third (33%) of Canadians believe the economy will improve over the next year, this represents a drop of 9 points when compared to the level recorded in March.

• Optimism in the economy is strongest in Ontario (38%), British Columbia (37%), and Atlantic Canada (36%), followed by Quebec (29%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (24%) and Alberta (23%).
• Canadians in upper income households (38%) are more likely than those in middle (30%) or lower (29%) income households to believe the economy will improve over the next year.
• Canadians 55 years of age and older (38%) are more likely than those under 55 (31%) to express this view.

A plurality of just under half (46%; up 2 points) believe the economy will remain about the same over the next year.

• Residents of Quebec (53%) are the most likely to believe things will remain about the same over the next year. This compares to 41% who feel this way in Ontario.
• Younger (50%) and middle aged (48%) Canadians are more likely to express this view than older (38%) Canadians.

One in five (19%; up 5 points) say things will worsen for the Canadian economy over the next 12 months.

• Albertans (30%) appear to be the largest pessimists regarding the Canadian economy. This compares to Saskatchewan/Manitoba (23%), British Columbia (20%), Ontario (19%), Quebec (17%), and Atlantic Canada (15%).
• Canadians in lower income households (26%) are more likely than those in middle (18%) or upper (14%) income households to feel pessimistic regarding the economy.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900