Majority (66%) of Canadians Support
Long-Gun Registry

Toronto, ON - Despite the Harper government's ill-fated attempt to shoot down the Federal `long-gun registry', a new poll conducted for Postmedia/Global Television by Ipsos Reid indicates that two thirds (66%) of Canadians personally support the gun-registry which requires all owners of long-barrelled guns to register their firearms on a national database. One third (34%) of Canadians are opposed to the registry.

In the vote in the House of Commons, Conservative MPs and a few NDP MPs supported the abolition of the gun registry, while members of the Liberal Party, Bloc Quebecois and most NDP MPs opposed its abolition. The opposition MPs narrowly won the vote. Based on what they've seen, read or heard about the issue and the vote in the House of Commons, support (40% strongly/26% somewhat) for the long-gun registry is highest in Quebec (81%) followed by Ontario (66%), British Columbia (61%), Atlantic Canada (59%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (57%).

In Alberta, the only place where a majority oppose the registry, the public is split and with half (53%) in opposition and the other half (47%) in support.

Support or opposition to the long gun registry based on current political party preference indicates that outside of Conservative voters who split, all other parties have a full majority of registry supporters:

And when asked whether the upholding of the long gun registry vote in the House of Commons could affect the way they would vote in the next, three quarters (77%) of Canadians said it would not influence them to change their mind on which party they would vote for; however, almost a quarter (23%) of Canadians indicated they could change their mind on which party to vote for as a result of the long gun registry vote.

On the face of it, the result of party vote switching could, in the end, be a bit of a wash: of those who would change their mind, roughly half (12%) said they will vote for a party that supports the abolition of the long-gun registry while the remainder (10%) said they will vote for a party that wants to keep the long-gun registry.

But the results based on current party preference show that while it's safe to say most Conservative candidates are likely to simply strengthen their base by the position their party has taken, and most Liberal and Bloc candidates should also be in relatively good shape, it's NDP candidates who will likely be most vulnerable to the issue with the split in supporters and opposers, but to a less degree than the embattled ranks of Green Party voters.

On a regional basis, Albertans (23%) are the most likely Canadians who would plan to vote for a party that supports the abolition of the registry, followed by those from Atlantic Canada (18%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (12%), British Columbia (13%), Ontario (11%) and Quebec (8%).

On the other hand, one in ten (13%) living in Saskatchewan/Manitoba say they could change their party vote for the party that wants to keep the long-gun registry, followed by 12% in each of British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec, and five percent (5%) of Atlantic Canadians and Albertans.

Canadians apparently not allowing this issue to influence their vote are most likely from Quebec (80%) followed by 78% of residents in Ontario, 77% of those living in Atlantic Canada, 74% in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and 72% of Albertans.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between September 27 and October 4, 2010, on behalf of Postmedia/Global Television. For this survey, a sample of 1,064 adults from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in Canada been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please see detailed tables in the right column or contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2009, Ipsos generated global revenues of e943.7 million ($1.33 billion U.S.).

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