Majority (71%) of Canadians Believe Election Call On Same-Sex Issue Not Justified

Toronto, Ontario - Despite the sabre-rattling and call to arms for a potential federal election over the same-sex marriage issue, a new poll shows that there is not much of an appetite for an election to be fought on the matter but, if there was, the Liberal Party could emerge with the most support.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted from January 25, 2005 to January 27, 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1012 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

No Appetite For Vote...

After being told that: "Over the past few days some people have suggested that the federal government should call an election on the issue of same sex marriage. Specifically, they think the election should be about whether or not the government should legislate same sex marriage allowing it to occur everywhere in Canada, even though it would not force religious institutions to perform this if they don't want to. Now, do you think having a federal election called on this issue is justified or not justified?"-- A full majority (71%) of Canadians say that calling an election is NOT justified compared to just 28% who believed that it IS justified. The remaining 1% "don't know" whether an election on this issue is justified or not.

• Those who believe an election is NOT justified are most likely to be from Quebec (78%), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (73%), British Columbia (71%), Atlantic Canada (70%), Ontario (68%) and Alberta (67%).

• As for respondent profiles, all age groups believe an election is NOT justified but are more heavily weighted to middle aged (77%) and older (78%) Canadians rather than younger (56%) Canadians.

• Canadians who are more educated (74% post-secondary/university vs. 63% with a high school diploma or less), and those with higher annual household income levels (74% with $30,000 or more vs. 61% with less than $30,000) are more likely to say that an election is NOT justified compared to their counterparts.

• As for gender, men (74%) are nominally more likely than women (69%) to believe an election is NOT justified.

There is no difference in opinion on this issue between rural and urban Canadians.

• And, as for those who believe an election IS justified, they are most likely to be from Alberta (32%) and Ontario (32%), followed closely by British Columbia (29%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (27%), Atlantic Canada (26%), and Quebec (20%).

• Younger (43%) Canadians are more likely to say an election on this issue IS justified, while half as many middle (22%) aged and older (21%) Canadians support this idea.

• Women (30%) are nominally more likely than men (26%) to say that an election IS justified.

• Those who are less educated, and who have lower annual household incomes--both averaging at approximately 36%, are also more say an election IS justified.

But if An Election Were Called Over The Issue And Voters Cast Their Ballot Based On The Party's Stand, The Liberals Would Lead Nationally...

Respondents were asked: "If a federal election was actually called on the government legislating same sex marriage to allow it everywhere in Canada, but not forcing religious denominations to perform this if they do not want to, based on what you know of the parties positions, which party would you most likely vote for?" This was followed up with a standard "leaner" question as noted in the combined attached tables.

A comparison made with our last sounding released on November 2nd, 2004, indicates the following:

• The Liberals are at 41%, up 2 from November 2004 (39%),

• The Progressive Conservatives are at 29%, up 3 from November 2004 (26%),

• The NDP are at 13%, down 3 from November 2004 (16%), and

• The Green party is at 4%, down 3 from November 2004 (7%).

The Bloc Quebecois in Quebec have remained unchanged at 9% and "other" parties also remain unchanged (4%).

As noted above, the Liberal party would lead all other parties with a vote specifically as noted. This is also in the absence of an actual campaign and based on what is simply known at this time.

Regionally, the Liberals at 41% nationally, have support as follows (and compared with the November release):

• Ontario (49%, +5), Atlantic Canada (47%, unchanged), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (41%, unchanged), British Columbia (37%, +10), Alberta (29%, +6), and Quebec (33%, -5). The findings suggest support rising or flat in all regions except Quebec.

As for the Conservatives at 29% nationally, their regional breakouts and comparisons are as follows:

• Alberta (49%, -10), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (41%, +2), Atlantic Canada (38%, +6), Ontario (30%, +4), British Columbia (23%, -2), and Quebec (16%, +8). As such, support for the Conservatives are more mixed but move up in vote rich Ontario and Quebec.

As for the NDP at 13% nationally, they have primarily slipped in Ontario (13%, -7 points) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (10%, -6 points). The Bloc remains static (36%) in Quebec and Green Party at 4% nationally appears to have lost the most support in British Columbia (9%, -6 points).

The undecided is at 12 percent. Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900