Majority (71%) Shrug Off Federal Budget as Liberal Lead Jumps to 8 Points Heading into Policy Convention
If an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau would receive 37% of the decided vote, up 4 points from early February, compared to the 29% of decided voters who would vote for the Conservatives led by Prime Minster Stephen Harper - unchanged since before the budget.
With the opposition vote consolidating around the Liberals, support for Mulcair's NDP has dropped 3 points to 24% of the vote. The Bloc would receive 5% nationally (down 2 points), while some other party (including the Green Party) would receive 5% of the vote (up 1 point). Nearly two in ten (18%) Canadians are undecided.
In two of the three key battleground provinces, the Liberals have made gains:
- In Ontario, the Liberals, previously two points behind the Tories, are now ahead by 5 points, but a tight battle remains among the Liberals (37%), Conservatives (32%) and NDP (25%).
- In Quebec, the Liberals (35%) build momentum over the NDP (28%), Bloc (21%) and Conservatives (15%).
- In British Columbia, however, the Tories (38%) have taken the lead over the Liberals (30%) and NDP (24%).
Liberal Gains May be Short-Lived as Federal Horserace Tightens Among Determined Voters...
Recent Liberal gains might not stick, however. When examining the results among the 52% of Canadians who say that `nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote', the Liberal lead shrinks to 4 points, suggesting that while the Liberals may be gaining strength, some of it is among Canadians who aren't quite as determined to get out and vote on Election Day.
Among likely voters, the Liberals have 35% of the vote, compared to 31% for the Tories, and 24% for the NDP, 6% for the Bloc and 4% for some other party.
Seven in Ten (71%) Canadians Shrug Their Shoulders in Reaction to the Budget as Ambivalence Grows...
Reflecting on the Federal Budget that was tabled in the House of Commons last Tuesday, most (71%) think the budget is `neither good nor bad' and they'd symbolically just shrug their shoulders. Two in ten (20%) Canadians say the budget is `bad and they'd symbolically give it `two thumbs down, while only one in ten (9%) believe the budget is `good' and they'd symbolically give it `two thumbs up'.
This is the lowest rated budget for the Tories over other years where this question was asked of Canadians, but also the one that garnered the least amount of reaction - positive or negative. In 2011, for example, more thought the budget was good (19%) than bad (16%). In 2012, two in ten (18%) thought it was good, while slightly more thought it was bad (24%).
That only 9% believe 2014's budget is good (and 20% bad) suggests the Tories are losing the fiscal advantage they once had over other parties. Further, there is more ambivalence towards this budget than those in the past (in 2014 71% shrug their shoulders vs. 55% in 2012 and 65% in 2011), likely a function of releasing the budget during the 2014 Sochi Olympic Winter Games.
Did Flaherty Strike the Right Balance Between Spending and Saving...?
The Conservative government is well on track to balancing the budget by next year, and, thanks to a contingency fund built into the 2014 budget, has essentially completed the task one year early.
Reflecting on the budget, four in ten (41%) think that the budget `focused too much on deficit reduction', compared to 25% who thought the budget `focused too much on spending'. One in three (34%) believe the Finance Minister `struck just the right balance'.
This is the opposite reaction to the 2012 budget that Flaherty delivered: four in ten (40%) thought there was too much spending in that budget, compared to 26% who believed there was too emphasis on deficit reduction, and 29% thought the right balance was struck, suggesting that the pendulum might have swung too far in the other direction.
Most (76%) Canadians Say Budget Has No Impact on Them...
Three quarters (76%) of Canadians say the Federal Budget has neither a positive nor negative impact on them personally. Two in ten believe that the budget will personally hurt them (21%), but only 4% think that the budget will personally help them.
Compared to 2012, 28% said that year's budget would hurt them while 7% thought it would help them, and 63% thought the impact was neutral.
Budget Fails to Move Government's Economic Approval Ratings...
If the budget is meant to demonstrate to Canadians that the Harper government is prudent in their management of the economy, the level of approval Canadians give towards the Federal Government's overall management of the Canadian economy is the same post budget as it was pre budget.
Prior to the budget, 46% of Canadians `approved' (7% strongly/40% somewhat) of the government's overall management of the Canadian economy, while 54% `disapproved' (16% strongly/37% somewhat).
Immediately following the budget, 47% of Canadians `approved' (7% strongly/40% somewhat) of their management of the economy, compared to 53% who `disapprove' (16% strongly/37% somewhat).
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between February 14th to 18th, 2014 on behalf of CTV News. For this survey, a sample of 1,034 Canadians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.5 percentage points had all Canadians adults been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2001
[email protected]
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