McGuinty Liberals (42%) Get Growth Spurt Over Tory's Tories (35%) In Week That Premier Declares Faith Based School Funding A `Ballot Issue', Promotes `Highway of Heroes'

Toronto, ON - In a week where Ontario Premier McGuinty declares faith based school funding a `ballot issue' and promotes a `highway of heroes', a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television finds that McGuinty's Liberals have benefited from a growth spurt, gaining two points in the last week, while Tory's Progressive Conservatives have dropped two points in the same time frame. While support for the PCs was maintaining close proximity to levels of support for the governing Liberals since May, the Liberals have now widened the gap to a lead of 7 points.

Specifically, 42% of Ontarians indicate that they would support the Ontario Liberals led by Dalton McGuinty, while 35% of Ontarians maintain that John Tory and his Progressive Conservative party would receive their support. The NDP led by Howard Hampton would receive the support of 16% of Ontarians if an election were held tomorrow, while the Green Party under Frank de Jong would receive the support of 6% of Ontarians.

The Tories have closed the gap slightly on the Grits in the GTA, moving from 34% support last week to 37% support this week. The GTA has softened for Liberals, dropping from 44% last week to 41% this week; however, they still enjoy a 4-point lead in the Greater Toronto Area.

Outside of the GTA, however, the Premier's messages appear to have resonated, with the Liberals moving from 37% support last week to 43% support this week. The Tories have sagged from 39% support last week to 34% this week, meaning that the Liberals now enjoy a 9-point lead over the Conservatives outside of the GTA. Despite a 7-point lead for the Liberals province wide, the Conservatives still maintain a slight lead in south-western Ontario, where the Tories are protecting a margin of two points over the Liberals (41% to 39%, respectively).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television from Aug 14 to Aug 23, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 760 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data.

Liberals Gain Momentum In Ontario...

Since May of this year, McGuinty and his Liberals have slowly been solidifying their support, and have the support of 42% of Ontarians across the Province. While Tory and his PCs had been increasing in lockstep with the Liberals, their support has now dipped back to where they were in May of this year at 35% support. The NDP are remaining consistent at 16% support, while the Green Party has levelled off at 6% support province-wide.

Within The GTA...

Within the GTA, the Liberals have moved from 44% support last week to 41% this week, while the Tories have had a boost from 34% support in the GTA last week to 37%, currently. This represents a 4% point spread between the Liberals (41%) and Progressive Conservatives (37%) in the GTA.

• In the 905, the Liberals have the support of 43% of Ontarians. The PCs trail at 38% support, and the NDP have the support of 12% of Ontarians living in the 905, while the Green Party has the support of 7% in the 905.
• In the 416, the Liberals are still ahead, but by a smaller margin, with the support of 39% of Torontonians. The Tories have the support of 36% of Torontonians, with the NDP trailing at 20% support, and the Green party at 5%.

Outside Of The GTA...,

Outside of the GTA, the Progressive Conservatives have relinquished their lead to the Liberals. The PCs have moved from 39% support last week to 34% support currently, while the Liberals have surged from 37% support last week to 43% support this week. The NDP have the support of 16% of Ontarians outside of the GTA (down 2 points from last week), while the Greens have the support of 6% of Ontarians living outside of the GTA (same as last week).

• In Central Ontario, the Liberals have 39% support, while the PCs have 35% support. The NDP trail at 19%, and the Green Party has the support of 7% of Central Ontarians
• In Eastern Ontario, the Liberals have 49% support and the Progressive Conservatives lag at 34% support. The NDP are far behind at 12% support, while the Green Party has the support of only 5% of Eastern Ontarians.
• In South-western Ontario, the Liberals have 39% support, while the PCs have 41% support. This is the only area of the province where the Tories have a lead over the Liberals. The NDP is at 15% support, and the Green Party has 5% support.
• In Northern Ontario, the Liberals have the support of a majority (51%) of the vote, while the Tories have secured 20% support. The NDP are not far behind at 18% support, and the Green Party has 10% of the support in Northern Ontario.

Those Most Likely To Support The Liberals...

Below is an analysis indicating those who are more likely to support the Liberals under Dalton McGuinty:

• Women (48%) are more likely than men (36%) to support the Liberals.
• Younger Ontarians, aged 18 to 34, are more likely to support the Liberals (44%) than middle-aged (39%) Ontarians. However, older Ontarians, aged 55 and older are now the most likely of all age groups (45%) to support the Liberals. Last week, only 37% of older Canadians supported the Liberals. This boost could be a result of McGuinty's `highway of heroes' plan.
• Those with a university degree are most likely (48%) to support the Liberals, compared to those with some post-secondary education (37%) or only a high school diploma or less (41%).

Those Most Likely To Support The Progressive Conservatives...

Below is an analysis indicating those who are more likely to support the Progressive Conservatives under John Tory:

• Men (39%) are more likely than women (32%) to support the PCs.
• Middle-aged Ontarians are the most likely of all age groups to be currently supporting the PCs, with 40% of those aged 35 to 54 pledging their support to the Tories. 36% of Ontarians aged 55 and older, and just 27% of Ontarians age 18 to 34 support the PCs.
• Those with some post-secondary education are more likely (42%) than those without any post-secondary education (33%) or a university degree (30%) to support the Tories.

Four In Ten (42%) Believe McGuinty Has Done A `Good Job'...

When presented with two differing opinions of the McGuinty government, 42% of Ontarians agree that the McGuinty government `has done a good job and deserves re-election'. On the other hand, slightly more (49%) believe that `it is time for another provincial party to take over' in Ontario. One in ten (9%) do not know with which statement they most closely identify.

• Since last week, slightly more (42% vs 40%) believe that the McGuinty government has one a good job and deserves re-election. In a similar vein, slightly less (49% vs 52%) now believe that it is time for another political party to take over.
• 50% of Ontarians with a university degree believe that the McGuinty government has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected, and just 43% of Ontarians with a university degree believe that it is time for change in Ontario. This demographic group is more likely than any other group studied to have this favourable appraisal of the McGuinty government.
• Ontarians aged 55 and older are most likely (45%) to indicate that the McGuinty government has done a good job and deserves re-election, while those in other age categories are less likely (44% of 18-34 year olds, 39% of 35 to 54 year olds).
• Residents of South-western Ontario are most likely of all regions to claim that it is time for another provincial party to take over (51%).
• Middle-aged Canadians are more likely (54%) than younger Canadians (48%) or older Canadians (44%) to agree that it is time for another provincial political party to take over.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

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