With a Month to Go, It's Shaping Up to Be a Horserace for Toronto Mayor
If the election were to happen tomorrow, 28% of Torontonians would vote for Rob Ford, down 4 points from the Ipsos Reid poll from a month ago, while George Smitherman would receive support from 23% of Torontonians, up 2 points, narrowing the gap between the front-runners to just five points. Joe Pantalone (10%, up 1 point), Rocco Rossi (7%, unchanged) and Sara Thomson (7%, down 3 points) are all lagging behind. Nearly two in ten (17%) Torontonians still declare themselves as undecided.
But municipal campaigns in Toronto are notorious for minimal participation by voters. In the 2003 election when David Miller first was elected mayor, voter turnout was estimated at 38%; in the last municipal election held in 2006, voter turnout was estimated at 41%. When trying to predict the outcome of a municipal election, it's most important to focus on voters who will actually show up to cast their ballot on Election Day.
In this regard, the data reveal that George Smitherman's supporters appear to be more determined than those of Ford to head to the voting booth on election. Among the 45% of Torontonians who say they're `absolutely certain' to vote come Election Day, Smitherman receives a significant boost in support and actually ties Ford for the lead: 30% of these Torontonians would vote for Smitherman compared to 29% who would vote for Ford. Pantalone (14%), Thomson (7%) and Rossi (6%) continue to trail, while 9% of voters who say they're absolutely certain to vote on Election Day remain undecided.
While Smitherman's supporters appear to be more determined to go out and vote, Ford's supporters are surer of their choice. Overall, four in ten (39%) Torontonians say they're `very certain' that their declared candidate in this poll is actually the one they will go out and vote for on Election Day. This rises to 53% among those who are supporting Rob Ford, and falls to 34% of those who are supporting George Smitherman.
Similarly, nearly one half (46%) of Torontonians consider themselves at least somewhat likely (9% very/37% somewhat) change their mind before Election Day. Smitherman's supporters are much more likely (55%) than Ford's supporters (34%) to say they're at least somewhat likely to do so.
Assuming for a moment that all the other candidates dropped out of the race and only Ford and Smitherman remained, the battle for the mayoralty would be tightly-fought on the surface: 48% of Torontonians would support Smitherman, while 45% would declare their support for Ford. However, among those who are absolutely certain to vote on Election Day, 57% would vote for Smitherman in a two-way race, while 37% would vote for Ford.
Vote Support by Key Demographics...The following is a brief analysis of vote support by some of the key demographics studied:
- Among men, Rob Ford (29%) has an advantage over George Smitherman (22%), but the race to woo the women of Toronto is much closer (27% Ford vs. 25% Smitherman).
- Rob Ford's vote support skews more heavily towards the older demographic: 33% of those aged 55 and older say they will vote for Ford, compared to fewer Torontonians aged 35 to 54 (28%) or 18 to 34 (23%).
- George Smitherman's support is more evenly spread out among younger (24%), middle-aged (25%) and older (21%) Torontonians.
- Smitherman's support is disproportionately located in the downtown core of the city. He bests Ford in the Old City of Toronto (28% Smitherman vs. 18% Ford) and in York/East York (38% Smitherman vs. 12% Ford).
- Conversely, Ford's support is located along the perimeter of the city, and he is running ahead of Smitherman in Scarborough (37% Ford vs. 14% Smitherman), North York (29% Ford vs. 24% Smitherman) and Etobicoke (45% Ford vs. 17% Smitherman).
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Global Television from September 24-26, 2010. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 400 adults living in Toronto was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1774.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Toronto proper been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Toronto population according to Census data. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]
About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.
About Ipsos
Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.
Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2009, Ipsos generated global revenues of e943.7 million ($1.33 billion U.S.). .
Visit www.ipsos-na.com to learn more about Ipsos offerings and capabilities.
Ipsos, listed on the Eurolist of Euronext - Comp B, is part of SBF 120 and the Mid-100 Index, adheres to the Next Prime segment and is eligible to the Deferred Settlement System. Isin FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP
