Mulcair Performing Best as Party Leader, But Trudeau and
Grits Seen as Most Ready to Govern

Toronto, ON - Heading into an election year, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Global News has revealed that NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has a higher approval rating than Trudeau and Harper, but the Liberals and Trudeau are favoured over the NDP to be the next government.

An Ipsos Reid / Global News poll released earlier in December had the Liberals (34%) and Conservatives (33%) tied in popular vote with the NDP (24%), Bloc (5%) and other parties (4%) trailing. But when it comes to approval of their leader's individual performance, approval of Thomas Mulcair as Leader of the Opposition and NDP (57% -- 12% strongly/45% somewhat, up 13 points from two years ago) bests Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberals (55% -- 14% strongly/41% somewhat) and Prime Minister Stephen Harper (49% -- 16% approve/34% somewhat, up 4 points).

While Harper's approval rating trails his chief rivals at 49%, since the 35th General Election of 1993, majority outcomes have ranged from 38.5% to 40.8% of all ballots cast. This suggests that if the Prime Minister can convert approval of his performance into votes, the Conservatives will have a strong chance at re-election in 2015.

Harper's approval rating also falls in the middle of the approval ratings that Canadians assign to their respective provincial Premier: 59% of Albertans approve of their Premier's performance, followed by those living in Atlantic Canada (58%), Ontario (50%), Quebec (41%), British Columbia (37%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (35%).

Trudeau's Liberals Seen as More Ready to Govern than Mulcair's NDP...

The strong approval rating for Thomas Mulcair does not appear to be translating into votes, the belief that the he's ready to be Prime Minister, or that the NDP is ready to govern. On these metrics, Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are in a stronger position. Four in ten (44%) `agree' (14% strongly/30% somewhat) that `the Justin Trudeau is ready to be Prime Minister' (up 5 points from last year), and an equal proportion (44%) `agrees' (14% strongly/30% somewhat) that `the Liberal Party is ready to be Canada's next government' (unchanged).

In contrast, just 36% `agree' (10% strongly/26% somewhat) that Thomas Mulcair is ready to be Prime Minister, and 37% `agree' (11% strongly/26% somewhat) that the NDP is ready to be the next government' (down 1 point).

Still, Canadians are not entirely convinced that either party is ready, as a majority (56%) `disagrees' (30% strongly/26% somewhat) that Trudeau is ready to be Prime Minister, down 5 points, and that the Liberals are ready to be the next government (56% disagree - 28% strongly/29% somewhat), unchanged. Two thirds (63%) disagree (29% strongly/33% somewhat) that the NDP is ready to be the next government, up 1 point, and that Mulcair is ready to be PM (64% disagree - 27% strongly/37% somewhat).

The poll also shows that more Canadians agree that they share `Justin Trudeau and the Liberal's values when it comes to where Canada should be headed' (48% agree - 11% strongly/37% somewhat, unchanged) than share Mulcair and the NDP's values (43% agree - 10% strongly/33% somewhat, down 4 points). By comparison, Stephen Harper's values are aligned with 44% of Canadians who agree (12% strongly/32% somewhat), up 5 points. Similarly, more believe that Trudeau's policies are innovative and forward thinking (51% agree - 11% strongly/39% somewhat, down 1 point) than Mulcair's polices (45% agree - 8% strongly/37% somewhat).

Harper Still has Edge on Economy...

The economy has been the focus of the Conservative government, and on this file they still appear to have an edge. In fact, an Ipsos Reid poll released yesterday showed that 51% approve of the Harper government's handling of the economy. In contrast, only 45% of Canadians `agree' (10% strongly/34% somewhat) that they trust Justin Trudeau and the Liberals to do a good job of managing Canada's economy' (up 1 point), and 43% `agree' (10% strongly/33% somewhat) that they trust Mulcair and the NDP to do a good job managing the economy (down 2 points).

Santa's Naughty or Nice List...

Canadians were asked to assess whether various political leaders should be on Santa's "naughty or nice" list. Interestingly, 88% of Canadians believe that they, themselves, deserve to be on the "nice" list, slightly ahead of the 86% who believe Pope Francis deserves a spot on that same list. Not surprisingly, former Toronto Mayor Rob Ford tops the naughty list (85%). The full list is below, with the change from last year in brackets. NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has made the biggest improvement (+10 points), while US President Barack Obama has dropped the most (-5 points).

(Click to enlarge image)

Atlantic Canadians (62%) are most likely to believe their respective Premier deserves to be on the nice list, followed by those living in Alberta (57%), Ontario (48%), BC (40%), Quebec (38%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (37%). On the other hand, residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (63%) are most likely to say their Premier deserves to be on the naughty list, followed by those in Quebec (62%), BC (60%), Ontario (52%), Alberta (43%) and Atlantic Canada (38%).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between December 16 to 19, 2014 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,005 Canadians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.5 percentage points had all Canadians adults been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Reid
Global Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]

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