NDP are Favourites to Win Third Term
Vancouver, BC, October 18, 2024 – A new Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Global BC shows the NDP with a very slim 2-point advantage over the Conservatives as the 2024 campaign reaches the finish line. While the overall NDP lead is within the survey’s margin of error, the NDP leads by 13-points in seat rich Metro Vancouver and by 17-points among the typically higher turnout 55+ age group.
An NDP victory is by no means a certainty and they are sure to lose some of the seats they picked up in 2020. This election will come down to turnout – who has already voted and who will show up on election day – as well as to some last minute ballot box decisions. BC has surprised before and the range of outcomes in this election includes an NDP majority, a Conservative majority and the potential for the Greens to hold a balance of power.
The Issues
There are three top issues for voters in this provincial election – cost of living/inflation (49%), healthcare (33%) and housing affordability and availability (30%). Secondary issues include jobs and the economy (14%), crime and public safety (12%), taxes (11%) and social issues like poverty and homelessness (11%).
Comparison to Post Debate Poll (Oct 9-10): We found the same top three issues in our Post Debate Poll - cost of living/inflation (51%), health care (35%) and housing affordability and availability (31%).
The Horserace
Voter preferences remain withing the margin of error. Currently, 44% of decided voters say they would be most likely to support or lean towards the New Democrats. The Conservatives are next at 42% support, followed by the Greens at 11%. Total ‘other party’ support is 3%. These results exclude the 12% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.
Comparison to Post Debate Poll (Oct 9-10): All parties are currently within two points of our Post Debate Poll – NDP (46%), Conservatives (41%), Greens (10%), Others (3%).
Region Breaks: The NDP leads by 13-points in Metro Vancouver (51% NDP vs. 38% CONS) and by 12-points on Vancouver Island (45% NDP vs. 33% CONS). The Conservatives lead by a substantial 24-point margin in the Southern Interior/North (55% CONS vs. 31% NDP). The Green Party does better outside Metro Vancouver (17% on Vancouver Island, 12% in Interior/North vs. 8% in Metro Vancouver).
Age Breaks: The NDP leads by 17-points among older voters (NDP 53% vs. CONS 36% among 55+ years) while the Conservatives have a 13-point lead among 35-54 year old voters (CONS 49% vs. NDP 36% among 35-54 years). The Conservatives also have a smaller 5-point lead among younger voters (CONS 45% vs. NDP 40% among 18-34 years).
Gender Breaks: There is a significant gender gap as the NDP leads by 13-points with women (49% NDP vs. 36% CONS) and the Conservatives have an 8-point lead among men (CONS 48% vs. NDP 40%).
Deserving Re-Election
BC voters lean towards this being a change election. Nearly half (48%) say it’s time for another provincial party to take over, while slightly less than four in-ten (37%) say the Eby government has done a good job and deserves re-election. Fifteen percent are undecided.
Comparison to Post Debate Poll (Oct 9-10): Time for a change sentiment has increased compared to our Post Debate Poll – time for another provincial party to take over (43%), the Eby government has done a good job and deserves re-election (38%).
Best Premier
David Eby (34%) has only a slight 5-point lead over John Rustad (29%) as the leader who British Columbians think would make the best Premier of the province. Sonia Furstenau remains a distant third (13%). One-quarter (24%) of British Columbians are still undecided.
Comparison to Post Debate Poll (Oct 9-10): Rustad has gained ground on Eby compared to our Post Debate Poll – Eby (35%), Rustad (25%), Furstenau (12%).
About the Study
These are the findings of an Ipsos survey of 1,330 British Columbians conducted October 16 to 18, 2024. The poll, conducted in partnership with Global BC, was fielded both online via the Ipsos I-Say Panel (n=930) and by phone with live interviewers (n=400) using both cellphones and landlines. These data were statistically weighted by region, age, gender and education to ensure the sample composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to Census data. The precision of Ipsos polls containing online data is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall poll is accurate to within +/ - 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs Canada
+1 604 788 2417
[email protected]
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