NDP Falters but Liberals Can't Capitalize as Conservatives Maintain 19-point Lead

Toronto, ON --  Canada's NDP, the junior partner in the confidence-and-supply agreement, has stumbled, losing three points in the popular vote since last month (16%, -3), according to a new Ipsos poll for Global News. However, the ruling party, the Liberals, have been unable to fully capitalize, gaining only 1 point (25%, +1) since last month. The Conservatives have also ticked up (44%, +1) and have maintained a commanding 19-point lead over the Liberals nationally – putting them solidly into a majority territory. In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives have 47% of the vote compared to 31% for the Liberals.

Adding to the Liberals' struggles is that one in three (33%) Canadians say they would never vote for the Liberals in the next election, underlying the challenging route they have to significantly close the gap with the Conservatives, for whom 28% would never vote. Half (51%) of Albertans and four in ten Atlantic Canadians (40%) and British Columbians (39%) would never vote Liberal in the next election, and neither would over one in three (36%) men or those aged 55+ (35%).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between May 10 and 13, 2024, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

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