Neck and Neck:
After First Week of Ontario Election Campaigning
McGuinty Liberals (38%) and Hudak PCs (37%) Tied with NDP Trailing (24%)

Toronto, ON - With the Ontario Election officially underway, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for Global News, CFRB NewsTalk 1010 and the Ottawa Citizen reveals that it's neck and neck between Premier Dalton McGuinty's Liberals (38%) and Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives (37%) with the New Democratic Party under Andrea Horwath trailing (24%).

But while the two front running parties may be tied on the topline, it's the PCs who currently have the edge because their supporters are more certain of their choice and to show up at the polls than Liberal supporters.

At this stage in the campaign it's a toss-up as to who could win at the ballot box on October 6, 2011, but it's worth noting that the McGuinty Liberals have had the most momentum among decided voters since July jumping from 31% then to 36% in August to 38% now--a gain of seven points over two months. This is in contrast to the Hudak Conservatives who started out in July at 42%, slipped to 38% in August and now sit at 37% -- a slide of five points over the same time frame.

The NDP under first-time campaigning leader Andrea Horwath has moved up modestly from 22% in July and 23% in August to 24% now--a rise of 2 points.

Mike Schreiner and the Green Party are nowhere on the voter radar screen receiving just 1% of committed support (down 2 points from last month and down four points since July).

One in ten (7%) Ontarians are undecided and not leaning towards any party.

When current regional voter intentions are compared with the July poll (that was a fulsome sample with regional break-outs compared to the August "flash" poll that was strictly topline), the following is noted:

• For the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the Liberals are up one point from 39% to 40%, whereas the Conservatives are down four points from 37% to 33%; the NDP are up five points from 20% to 25%.
• Within the GTA, the current vote appears as follows:
• In the 416 area code, the Liberals (40%) hold the lead over the NDP (31%) and the Progressive Conservatives (28%).
• In the 905, the race is tighter as the Grits (41%) and the Tories (38%) are statistically tied with two in ten (20%) supporting the NDP.
• In Southwest Ontario, the Tories (40%) are down a substantial 12 points since July at 52%, with the Liberals up 11 points from 23% to 34% in this latest sounding; the NDP are up seven points from 18% to 25% as the Green Party collapses from 6% to 1%.
• In Central Ontario, the Tories (40%) are down three points from 43% in July with the Liberals up a very substantial 15 points from 20% to 35%; the NDP at 24% are just down by 1 point.
• In Eastern Ontario, nearly half (46%, up two points) support the Progressive Conservatives while one third (36% up eight points) support the Liberals; only two in ten (17%) support the NDP--down eight points from 25% in July.
• In Northern Ontario, the Liberals (44%) are up a whopping 19 points from 25% in July to reclaim the region, followed by the NDP (30% -- unchanged since July) with the PCs behind now at 23% -- a very substantial fall of 22 points from 45% in July.

All in all, the Liberals have had solid gains at the expense of the PCs in the North, East and Southwest parts of the province.

The data also reveal some interesting insight on which party's voters are the most motivated to vote in this election. While 59% of Ontarians overall say they're `absolutely certain' to vote on October 6th, Election Day, PC (67%) supporters are the most likely to say they're absolutely certain to vote, followed by those who support the Grits (61%) and the NDP (54%).

Furthermore, the PC vote appears to be the most entrenched with 51% saying they're `absolutely certain' of their choice compared with 44% of those choosing the Liberal Party and 44% choosing the NDP.

(Click to enlarge image)

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between September 7-11, 2011, on behalf of Global News, CFRB NewsTalk 1010 and the Ottawa Citizen. A representative, randomly-selected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]

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