With a New Throne Speech, Chretien Liberals Notch Up (44%) and Remain Most Popular Party
Over the same time frame, the Progressive Conservatives (15%) drop 3 points, and are tied with the Canadian Alliance (15%, down 1 points since August) in support among decided voters, followed closely by the NDP (13%, unchanged since August).
The Bloc Quebecois (9% nationally, 36% in Quebec) remains in a virtual dead heat with the federal Liberals (38% in Quebec) within Quebec.
The Green Party (4%) also shows up on the federal radar screen especially in British Columbia where they are receive support from one in ten (10%) voters. According to the latest provincial British Columbia Ipsos-Reid poll released in late September, the BC provincial Green Party receives support from 19%.
One percent would vote for `some other party' and eight percent would not vote or are undecided.
These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between October 1st and October 3rd, 2002. (The Throne Speech was delivered on September 30th, 2002). The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.
Also, after a summer in which the leaders of the NDP, Progressive Conservatives, and Liberals announced they would be resigning and the first summer in the leadership of Stephen Harper, the federal Liberals (44%, up 3 points since August) remain the most popular party on the federal front.
- Regionally, support for the governing Liberals is strongest among voters in Atlantic Canada (57%) - in fact, support for the Liberals jumps 17 points in the Maritimes since August - and Ontario (56%), followed by Quebec (38%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (38%), British Columbia (29%) and Alberta (23%).
- The Liberals are the most popular party in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and Saskatchewan/Manitoba and are in a virtual tie in British Columbia and Quebec. Alberta is the only area of the country where they trail.
- The Liberals are stronger among Canadians in upper income households (47%) than among those in lower income households (39%).
- Liberal support is statistically consistent across age and gender demographic groups.
The Progressive Conservatives (15%) drop 3 points since the August poll and are tied with the Alliance (15%).
- Regionally, the Conservatives are strongest in Atlantic Canada (22%), despite dropping 19 points since August, followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (20%), Ontario (17%), Alberta (16%), British Columbia (13%) and Quebec (8%).
- Older voters (21%) are more likely to express support for the Tories than are middle aged (13%) or younger (11%) voters.
- Support for the Conservatives is statistically consistent across gender and household income groups.
The Canadian Alliance (15%, down 1 point since August) are tied with the Tories in support among decided voters.
- The support for the Alliance is concentrated in Alberta (48%) where they are the most popular federal party. The CA receives support from one-quarter of decided voters in British Columbia (24%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (24%), but only 13% support in Ontario. The lowest level of support for the Alliance is found in Atlantic Canada (4%) and Quebec (1%).
- Support for the Alliance is statistically consistent across age, gender, and household income groups.
The federal NDP (13%) remains unchanged from August and closely follows the right of centre parties in decided voter support.
- Support for the NDP is strongest in British Columbia (23%) where they are in a virtual tie with the Liberals and the CA, followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (17%), Atlantic Canada (14%), Quebec (11%), Ontario (10%), and Alberta (9%)
- The NDP receive higher levels of support among Canadians from lower income households (20%) than among those from middle (12%) or upper (9%) income households.
- NDP support is statistically consistent across age and gender demographic groups.
The Bloc Quebecois (9% nationally; 36% in Quebec) remains in a virtual dead heat with the federal Liberals (38% in Quebec) within Quebec.
The Green Party (4%) also shows up on the federal radar screen especially in British Columbia.
- Support for the Green Party is highest in British Columbia (10%) and among voters between 18 and 34 years of age (9%).
To view the release and tables, please open the attached PDF files.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
