The Federal Election: Canadians are looking forward to getting ahead but will the Parties be able to Deliver?
Toronto, ON, Sep 6, 2019 — Labour Day came and went, and while Canadians were trying to squeeze some fun out of the last few days of Summer, we were plunging into the Federal Election. We may have voted for hope, optimism sunny days in 2015 but Canadians don’t appear to be very optimistic heading into the Fall of 2019.
On the one hand Canadians see a strong economy. Assessment of their personal finances has gone from 32% positive (Q4 2015) to 46% today and their assessment of their job security has grown from 39% positive (Q4 2015) to 52% today. On the eve of the writ dropping, one would assume from these numbers that the federal Liberals would very much like to have the 2019 ballot question be “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”
But it won’t be, because despite these views and some impressive economic numbers at the macro level, Canadians aren’t optimistic about their longer-term prospects. Pocket-book issues and concerns over affordability are a common thread connecting most of the top issues Canadians identify as priorities: healthcare, the economy, housing, climate change, and taxes. In short, the economy is better today but we don’t think it is good enough to withstand future challenges. We feel our household and country’s economic progress over the last four years has been built on a house of (credit) cards and it is only a matter of time before the crash.
Our concerns are more than economic. There is a deeper angst about the direction of the country. Canadians are questioning the value and the very role of government, politicians and political parties in their lives and many politicians are going to run into the buzz saw of growing cynicism once they start knocking on doors. For starters:
- 67% (unchanged since 2016) agree that the country’s economy is rigged to the advantage of the rich and powerful
- 61% (vs 56% in 2016) agree that “traditional parties and politicians don’t care about people like me”
- 57% (vs in 47% November 2016) say the country is “going in the wrong direction”
- 52% (up dramatically from 37% in 2016) agree that “Canadian society is broken”
This level of angst and cynicism among Canadians is going to pose a challenge for all political parties. Delivering policy ideas along with messaging to motivate supporter turn-out will be difficult, and they will need to find a balance between positive, forward-looking messages and empathetic, “we get you now” messages.
Imagine if you were a federal candidate hearing this at the door while looking for a vote. “I think the economy is stacked against me, I don’t think you care about me, I think our society is broken and our country is headed in the wrong direction … tell me how you are going to fix this and why I should vote for you?”
Given the current climate, it’s hard to imagine a positive policy discussion taking place over the next few months. It is, however, easy to imagine a lot of mud-slinging and “don’t vote for the other team” messaging. All of which will lead to more cynicism and more of a disconnect between Canadians and their government.
On October 21st Canadians may “Choose Forward”, they may choose to “Get Ahead” or they may choose another option, but it sure feels like if “None of the Above” was put on the ballot it would be a safe bet to win a majority.
About the poll
These are the findings of a survey conducted in 27 countries via Global Advisor, the online survey platform of Ipsos, between March 22 and April 5, 2019. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 18,528 adults aged:
- 16-74 in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Chile, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Spain, and Sweden;
- 18-74 in Canada, Israel, South Africa, Turkey, and the United States of America;
- 19-74 in South Korea
The sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Spain, and the U.S., and of 500+ individuals in each of the other countries surveyed. The data is weighted so each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of its adult population according to the most recent census data, and to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working-age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in other countries surveyed are more urban, more educated and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.
Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of online surveys conducted on Global Advisor is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/-3.5 percentage points for countries where the sample is 1,000+ and +/- 4.8 points for countries where the sample is 500+. For more information on the Ipsos use of credibility intervals, please go to https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/2017-03/IpsosPA_CredibilityIntervals.pdf.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Mike Colledge
President, Service Line Lead
613 688 8971
About Ipsos
Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.
Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.
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