December 2022: Global consumer confidence is holding up

Washington, DC, December 22, 2022 — Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index this month reads at 45.9 is up 0.4 points vs. last month. The Expectations sub-index shows its first significant increase this year (+0.5 points), while the Investment and Jobs’ sub-indices barely show any change.

The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of all surveyed countries’ National Indices. This month’s installment is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,000 adults under the age of 75 from 23 countries conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between November 25 and December 9, 2022.

While the Overall Index is up a small 0.4 points from last month, it continues to remain muted compared to the start of the year. It remains nearly three points lower than in January. The same is true of the Expectations and Investment sub-indices, which are down around four points since January. In contrast, the Jobs’ sub-index remains in-line with its readings to begin the year.

As 2022 comes to a close, downward trends in overall sentiment continue to be starkest in European countries, the United States, Canada, Japan and South Korea. In six of the G7 countries—the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, and Japan—consumer confidence continues to sit near its lowest levels in more than a year.

This month, China (+2.7) and Italy (+1.5) are the only countries to show a significant month-over-month gain in their National Index (i.e., 1.5 points of more). However, no country shows a significant decline this month.

National Index Trends

China (72.2) holds the highest National Index score this month, and it is the only country with a score above 70. Saudi Arabia (69.5) and India (64.2) continue to be the only other countries with a National Index score above 60.

Similar to last month, just four other countries show a National Index above the 50-point mark: Australia (52.6), Brazil (52.0), the U.S. (50.4), and Mexico (50.3).

Eight countries now show a National Index below 40: Spain (39.5), Belgium (38.8), South Korea (37.4), Poland (35.9), Japan (35.8), Argentina (35.5), Turkey (34.4), and Hungary (30.9). Consumer confidence in Japan has fallen nine points since the start of 2022, and currently sits at its lowest point since September 2020.

Just six countries have a National Index score that is significantly higher than in February 2022, prior to the start of the war in Ukraine: Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India, China and Mexico. In contrast, it is significantly lower than it was then in 15 countries.

Jobs, Expectations, and Investment Index Trends

Among 23 countries:

• Four countries (Belgium, China, Israel, and Italy) show a significant gain (at least 1.5 points) in their Expectations Index, indicative of consumers’ outlook about their future financial situation, local economy, and jobs environment. Brazil is the only country to show a significant loss.
• Four countries (China, Italy, South Africa, and Brazil) show a significant gain in their Investment Index, indicative of consumers’ purchasing and investment confidence and their financial situation and outlook. No country shows a significant month-to-month drop.
• China and Argentina show significant gains in their Jobs Index, while Saudi Arabia shows a significant month-to-month drop.

About the Study

These findings are based on data from Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. The results are based on interviews with a total of 17,000+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, and South Africa; and aged 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain, and the U.S., and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.

Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working-age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, mainland China, India, Israel, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey are more urban, more educated, and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.

Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Refinitiv/Ipsos online surveys is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. Please click here for more information.

The publication of these findings abides by local rules and regulations.

The results reported each month in the Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index are based only on that month’s data (hence, the base for each country is 500+ or 1,000+) and comparisons are made against results from other months which are also each based on one month’s data. In contrast, the results reported any given month in Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are based on data collected not only that month, but also during the two previous months and consist of past 3-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the base for any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.

The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings, and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month for each of the countries surveyed consist of a “Primary Index” based on all 11 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 11 questions. Those sub-indices include an Expectations Index; Investment Index; and Jobs Index.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420 2025|
[email protected]

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