Federal Conservatives (37%), Liberals (31%) Locked in Holding Pattern as Parliamentarians Hit the Summer-Barbecue Circuit

Most (67%) Canadians Want Change in Ottawa; Scheer (36%) Edges Trudeau (32%) as Best Prime Minister

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
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Toronto, ON, July 17, 2019 — The federal Conservatives and Liberals appear locked in a holding pattern as incumbent MPs and those vying to defeat them hit the summer-barbecue circuit ahead of this fall’s General Election.

According to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News, 37% of decided voters would vote for the Conservative Party led by Andrew Scheer (unchanged since June), while 31% would vote for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party (also unchanged since June). The NDP and Jagmeet Singh would receive 18% of the decided vote, while the Bloc Quebecois would receive 5% nationally (22% in Quebec). Elizabeth May and the Green Party would receive 7% support nationally, while Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party would receive 1%, and a further 1% would vote for some other party. Nearly two in ten (18%) don’t know who they would vote for, while 9% say they simply would not vote.

The Liberals continue to trail in every region, with the notable exception of Quebec, underscoring their current challenges:

  • In Ontario, the Conservatives (38%) are ahead of the Liberals (32%), NDP (22%), Greens (5%), People’s Party (1%), and others (2%).
  • In Quebec, the Liberals (37%) maintain a double-digit lead over the Conservatives (24%), Bloc (22%), NDP (10%), Greens (4%), People’s Party (1%), and others (1%).
  • In British Columbia, the Conservatives (33%) have an edge over the Liberals (28%), Greens (19%), NDP (18%), and others (2%).
  • In Alberta, the Conservatives (55%) have the support of the majority, while the Liberals (24%), NDP (15%), Greens (4%), and People’s Party (3%) split the remainder of the votes.
  • In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (40%) are leading the Liberals (31%), NDP (16%), and Greens (13%).
  • In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives (44%) continue to lead the Liberals (28%), NDP (20%), and Greens (8%).

Not only do the regional results continue to be challenging for the Liberals, but so too are the results among two of the key constituencies that helped propel Trudeau to victory in 2015: Millennials and women.

  • Among women, the Conservatives (39%) have a ten-point lead over the Liberals (29%), NDP (20%), Bloc (3%), and Greens (9%).
  • Among men, the Conservatives (35%) and Liberals (33%) are statistically tied, while the NDP (15%), Bloc (6%), Greens (6%), People’s Party (2%), and others (2%) trail.
  • Among those aged 18-34, the Conservatives (30%), Liberals (28%) and NDP (24%) are in a close race, well ahead of the Greens (11%), Bloc (4%), People’s Party (2%), and others (2%).
  • Among those aged 35-54, the Liberals (37%) lead the Tories (31%), NDP (18%), Bloc (8%), Greens (5%) and others (1%).
  • Among those aged 55+, the Conservatives (47%) have a commanding lead over the Liberals (29%), NDP (12%) Greens (7%), Bloc (3%), People’s Party (1%), and others (1%).

The Conservatives also appear to have an advantage in having the most enthusiastic base of voters. Six in ten (61%) Canadians say they are certain to vote in the upcoming election, answering a 9 or 10 on a scale of 1 to 10. Predictably, those aged 55+ (75%) are most likely to say they’ll vote (the group among which the Conservatives have their biggest lead), followed distantly by those aged 35-54 (59%) and 18-34 (44%).

Put another way, 75% of Conservative supporters, say they’re likely to vote, followed by 72% of Liberal voters, 67% of NDP voters, 88% of Bloc voters, and 65% of Green voters.

Most Canadians Want Change in Ottawa

Reflecting on the performance of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government, 39% approve (7% strongly/33% somewhat) of their performance, while 61% disapprove (34% strongly/27% somewhat). Approval ratings are similar among men (40%) and women (39%), but are much stronger among Millennials (49%) than Gen Xers (39%) or Boomers (32%). Approval ratings are highest in Quebec (44%) and Ontario (42%), and lower in BC (39%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (38%), Atlantic Canada (35%) and Alberta (25%).

Just one in three (33%) Canadians believes that the Prime Minister has done a good job and deserves re-election, compared to 67% who think it’s time for another party to take over. Quebecers (37%) are most inclined to believe that the government deserves re-election, followed by those in Ontario (33%), BC (32%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (30%), Atlantic Canada (28%) and Alberta (25%).

Assessing the leaders of the major parties on which of them would make the best prime minister of Canada, 36% believe that Andrew Scheer would do the best job, slightly ahead of the 32% who think that Justin Trudeau would still make the best prime minister. Others believe that Elizabeth May (17%), Jagmeet Singh (13%), or Yves-François Blanchet (2%) would make the best prime minister.

Green Party Experiment

Ipsos has traditionally not prompted the Green Party in its online polling. Our experience suggests that, when we do, their support is significantly overstated, as many will say they are voting Green out of protest, but ultimately won’t show up to vote on election day.

Recognizing that the Green Party has momentum after recent victories in Ontario, BC and PEI, Ipsos wanted to measure the impact of prompting the Green Party vs. capturing their support on an open-ended basis. When the Green Party is prompted, they receive 11% of the decided vote; however, when they are not prompted and instead collected open-ended, they receive 4% of the vote.  

© 2019, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between July 12 to 15, 2019, on behalf Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 adults living in Canada was polled. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD

CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs

+1 416 324-2001

Darrell.Bricker@ipsos.com 

 

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry. With offices in 89 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management. Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,780.5 million in 2017.

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs

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