NDP has the Most Potential to Gain or Lose Votes; After Decline in Past Week, Tory Support Firmest

Toronto, Ontario, May 23, 2018 — Support for the NDP is the most volatile among the three major parties with further potential for gains or losses in the popular vote, while the Tory vote remains most committed, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News. In the past 2 weeks, the NDP has gained 8 points as those who want change in government but do not want a Ford-led PC government kick the tires of the NDP and Andrea Horwath. Despite being the most-popular second choice of Ontarians, suggesting room for a further increase in their share of the popular vote, NDP voters are also the least committed to their vote choice at present, suggesting the potential for an erosion in support at the first sign of doubt among the electorate.

A recent Ipsos poll showed the NDP (37%) and Progressive Conservatives (36%) tied among decided eligible voters, with the Liberal Party (23%) and others (4%), including the Green Party, well back. Digging deeper into the data reveals that most (54%) eligible voters are not yet absolutely certain of their vote choice – but some party’s supporters are more committed than others.
• Conservative voters are most likely to say they’re absolutely certain of their vote choice (66% are absolutely certain).
• Only four in ten (38%) Liberal voters are absolutely certain of their vote choice.
• Three in ten (31%) NDP voters are absolutely certain of their vote choice.

Interestingly, current Conservative (72%) and NDP voters (67%) are the most likely to say they’re absolutely certain to vote on E-Day, while fewer Liberal (59%) voters say they’re certain to cast their ballot at all.

Despite having the most tenuous base of vote support, the NDP remains the most popular second choice for people not already voting for them, which means they likely have the most potential to grow their current share of the vote. One quarter (27%) of Ontarians would choose the NDP as their second choice, while fewer would name the Liberals (16%) or the PCs (13%) as their second choice. Nearly two in ten (17%) would pick some other party as their second choice, while one quarter (26%) aren’t sure who they would choose.
• Among current PC voters, 37% would choose the NDP as their second choice while fewer would pick the Liberals (10%).
• Among current NDP voters, 33% would choose the Liberals as their second choice, while 21% would opt for the PCs.
• Among current Liberal voters, six in ten (58%) would opt for a NDP candidate as their second choice, with significantly fewer (23%) saying they’d choose the Tories as their second choice.

Underscoring the volatility of the electorate in this election, fully one quarter (23%) of Ontarians say they’re voting for a Party that is different form the one they voted for in 2014, with current NDP voters (39%) being most likely to say so, while fewer Tory (17%) or Liberal (8%) voters say the same.

Nearly Half (46%) of NDP Voters say they’re voting NDP to Stop Another Party from Winning

While a majority (64%) of Ontarians say they’re voting for the party they are because they like that party the best, nearly four in ten (37%) say they’re voting for their party because they want to stop another party from winning the election. In fact, nearly half (46%) of NDP voters say they’re voting NDP because they want to stop another party from winning the election, while only a slim majority (54%) say it’s because they like the NDP best. Among PC voters, two in three (64%) like their party best while one in three (36%) are voting PC to stop another party from winning. Among Liberal voters, three quarters (74%) like the Liberals the best, while one quarter (26%) are voting Liberal to stop another party from forming government.

Nine in ten Ontarians say that there is a Party leader in this horserace that they do not want to become Premier of Ontario. A plurality (45%) says they definitely don’t want Kathleen Wynne to be re-elected as Premier, outpacing the 39% who say they don’t want Ford to become Premier. This leaves only one in ten (8%) who say they don’t want Andrea Horwath to become Premier, while a similar proportion (8%) would be fine with any of the leaders as First Minister of Ontario.

Horwath Named Best Premier Despite Ford Being Seen as Primary Agent of Change

Nearly half (48%, +1 since last week) of Ontarians believe that NDP Leader Andrea Horwath would make the best Premier of Ontario, while one in three (34%, -2) believe that distinction belongs to Doug Ford. Just 18% (unchanged) believe that the incumbent Premier, Kathleen Wynne, would make the best Premier.

Andrea Horwath continues to be the most popular of all the party leaders. The chart below demonstrates the proportion of Ontarians who have favourable and unfavourable impressions of each of the major party leaders, with the change since last week. While Horwath remains solidly in the lead in terms of her personal popularity, her positive momentum has slowed this week.

In a key finding first observed last week and strengthening this week, the NDP (43%, +7) continues to be chosen over the Liberals (26%, -5) as the party that has the best chance of stopping Doug Ford and the PC Party from forming government. Three in ten (31%, -2) believe neither party has the best chance of stopping a Ford-led PC government.

The Tories are continuing to do well, despite the personal popularity of Horwath, at least in part due to the fact that a majority (57%, unchanged) continues to believe that the PCs pose the best chance of defeating Kathleen Wynne and the Liberal Party, while fewer (31%, +2) believe the NDP has the best chance of defeating the Wynne Liberals. One in ten (12%, -3) believe neither party does, and that the Liberals will be re-elected. Moreover, despite a tie in the popular vote, a majority (55%) believes the PCs will win the election compared to two in ten who believe that the Liberals (20%) or NDP (20%) will win, respectively.

Ontarians Unflappable in their Desire for change

While the popular vote in the Ontario election thus far has been remarkably volatile, the one thing that hasn’t is the desire for change in Ontario. Eight in ten (80%, unchanged) believe it’s time for another provincial party to take over, while just two in ten (20%, unchanged) believe the Wynne government has done a good job and deserves re-election. Even one in three (32%) Liberal voters confess it’s time for another party to take over, despite voting for the Liberals.

Three in ten (30%, unchanged) continue to approve (7% strongly/23% somewhat) of the performance of the Liberal government under Premier Kathleen Wynne, while seven in ten (70%, unchanged) disapprove (43% strongly/27% somewhat).

© 2018, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication.  Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data.  Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between May 18 to 21, 2018, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1000 Ontarians eligible to vote and aged 18+ from Ipsos' online panel was interviewed online, supplemented by river-based sampling. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
CEO, Global
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 416 324-2001
[email protected]

Sean Simpson
Vice President, Canada
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 416 324-2002
[email protected]

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