Warmer Temperatures Bring Sunny Ways: Trudeau Liberals (39%) Reclaim Lead over Scheer’s Tories (32%)

Trudeau’s Approval Rating Rises to 55%, Up 11 Points Since Low Point in March

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  • Sean Simpson Vice President, Canada, Public Affairs
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Toronto, Ontario, July 20, 2018 — Warmer summer temperatures have brought with them sunny ways as Trudeau’s Liberals reclaim the lead once again over Scheer’s Tories, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.

If a federal election were to happen tomorrow, the Liberals would maintain power receiving 39% (up 6 points since June) of the decided popular vote. The Conservatives have now dropped 5 points to 32% of the decided vote. Support for the New Democratic Party remains unchanged at 21%, while the Bloc Quebecois are down one point to just 2% nationally (10% in Quebec). All other parties, including the Green Party, would receive 6% (up 1 point) of the vote. One in ten (10%) say they don’t know/not sure who they would vote for.

The trade war with U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be yielding dividends for Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberal Party, as attention is focused on the Prime Minister and his response to the U.S. President. Moreover, with the House of Commons enjoying its summer recess, Scheer and Singh are not getting the air time they might like in the news media, leaving the spotlight shining solely on Mr. Trudeau.

The shift in national support is mirrored at the provincial level, where Liberal fortunes have improved in several provinces:

  • In Ontario, the Liberals are up 6 points with 39% of the decided vote in the province, effectively overcoming the honeymoon of the Progressive Conservatives in the aftermath of their victory in the Ontario Provincial Election. The jump comes at the expense of the NDP whose support is now at 20% in the province (down 6 points), and are no longer benefiting from their strong showing in the election. The Conservatives would receive 37% of the decided vote (up 2 points).
  • In Quebec, the Liberals have vaulted ahead with a commanding lead of 46% of the decided vote. The Conservatives are at 21%. The New Democratic Party sits at 18% while the Bloc Quebecois are at 10% of the decided vote.
  • In BC, the Liberals have 33% of the vote. The Conservative party sits at 26%. In BC, it is the New Democratic Party that leads with 35%. All other parties, including the Green party have 6% of the decided vote.
  • In Alberta the Conservatives lead with 46%. Both the Liberals and the New Democrats trail the Conservatives each with 23% of the vote. All other parties including the Green party have 7% of the decided vote.
  • In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives maintain their lead with 41% while the Liberals have 35% of the vote. The New Democratic Party ranks third with 19% of the vote.
  • Atlantic Canada remains a stronghold for the Liberals who command 60% of the decided vote. The Conservatives rank in second with 21% of the vote and the New Democrats are in a distant third with 10%.

The Liberals are also the top choice among key demographic groups:

  • Among women, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by 6 points with 38% of the decided vote compared to 32%. The New Democrats trail with 23% of the decided vote among women. Among men, Liberals also have an advantage with 40% of the vote, the Conservatives have 32% and the New Democrats have 20%.
  • The Millennial (18-34 year olds) vote sides with the Liberals who own 37% of the share compared to 25% for the Conservatives and 26% for the New Democrats. Gen Xers (35-54 year olds) also lead among Liberals with 43% of the vote, 28% for the Conservatives, and 22% for the New Democrats. Baby Boomers (those 55 years old+) are more likely to side with the Tories with 40% of the decided vote compared to 36% for the Liberals and 18% for the New Democrats.
  • On income, the Liberals lead every category. Those with a household income less than $40,000 are more likely to side with the Liberals at 39%, 26% for the Conservatives and 21% for the New Democrats. Of those making between $40,000 and less than $60,000 the Liberals hold a lead with 38% compared to 30% for the Conservatives and 22% for the New Democrats. For those making between $60,000 and less than $100,000 the Liberals also lead with 40%, compared to 28% for the Conservatives and 26% for the New Democrats. Finally, of those making over $100,000, the Liberals hold 44% of the vote and the Conservatives 39%, with the NDP in a distant third at 14%.

The increase in the Liberal’s share of the decided vote is in line with Trudeau’s approval rating which continues to improve: a majority (55%) of Canadians approve (11% strongly/ 44% somewhat) of the performance of Justin Trudeau’s Government, up 5 points since June and up 11 points since the end of March. Less than half of Canadians (45%) disapprove (20% strongly/25% somewhat), down 5 points since June, 11 points since March.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between July 13 and 16, 2018, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 was interviewed. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Sean Simpson
Vice President, Canada
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 416 324-2002

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, Ipsos Public Affairs is the polling partner for Global News. Internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.
With offices in 88 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.
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Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,782.7 million in 2016.

The author(s)

  • Sean Simpson Vice President, Canada, Public Affairs