Trudeau Approval Rating Not Translating to Polls, Conservatives Continue to Lead

Real Change Out of Range, As Most Canadians See No Progression on Campaign Promises

Trudeau Approval Rating Not Translating to Polls, Conservatives Continue to Lead

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs, Ipsos
  • Sean Simpson Vice President, Canada, Public Affairs
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Toronto, Ontario, July 3, 2018 — Scheer’s Conservatives continue to lead over the Trudeau Liberals and Singh’s NDP, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted behalf of Global News.

If a federal election were to happen tomorrow the Conservative Party would be victorious over the Liberals, receiving 37% (up 1 point) of the decided popular vote, while the incumbent Liberals would receive 33%, up 1 point. The New Democratic Party would receive 21% (up 1 point) of the vote and the Bloc Québécois would receive 3% of the vote nationally (down 2 points) while other parties, including the Green party, would receive 5% (down 2 points) of the vote.

The halo effect from the recent victory for the Progressive Conservative Party seems to have disappeared in Ontario, as the gap between the Federal Conservatives, Liberals and NDP has tightened in the province.

  • In Ontario, the Conservatives (35%) losing their 11-point lead from 2 weeks ago, are now neck and neck with the Liberals (33%), followed by the NDP (26%), and some other party (6%).
  • In Quebec, the Liberals lead (37%) ahead of the Conservatives (26%), with the NDP (16%) and Bloc (16%) tied. Only 6% would vote for some other party.
  • In BC, the Liberals (38%) lead with the Conservatives (36%) close behind, followed by the NDP (17%), and some other party (9%)
  • In Alberta, the Conservatives (62%) are while ahead of the NDP (21%), and Liberals (16%). Just 1% of Albertans would vote for some other parties.
  • In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (50%) lead, followed by the Liberals (26%), NDP (22%), and some other party (3%).
  • In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (51%) hold strong, ahead of the Tories (25%), NDP (17%), and others (7%).

While the Conservatives lead in the popular vote, Trudeau’s approval rating continues to climb, up 5 points in just two weeks. A majority (55%) of Canadians approve (8% strongly/47% somewhat) of the performance of Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government, whereas less than half (45%) disapprove (22% strongly/22% somewhat) of his performance. The increase can possibly be attributed to recent events including following through with the highly anticipated campaign promise of legalizing marijuana and continuing to hold ground during a volatile NAFTA renegotiation.

Despite High Approval, Trudeau Government Missing the Mark on Key Issues

When elected in 2015, the Trudeau government promised to deliver real change to Canadians. However, the poll finds priorities impacting Canadians daily lives such as the work commute, taxation levels, and overall affordability are not getting any better. While the Trudeau government has tackled other hot topics, the issues that are impacting the average Canadian are perceived to be untouched.

However, Canadians do feel the Trudeau government has been improving the relationship with Canada’s aboriginal communities and addressing policies to help reduce climate change. Although, these issues are not of top concerns to Canadians.

The chart below displays the percentage of Canadians who have rated the government’s performance on key issues.

 

Improved

Worsened

Stayed the Same

The relationship with Canada's aboriginal communities

30%

15%

55%

Policies to help reduce climate change

21%

20%

59%

Hope about the future

19%

33%

48%

Our immigration system

17%

47%

36%

The opportunities for young people to find good jobs

15%

28%

56%

Our economy

15%

38%

47%

Your access to quality of healthcare services

12%

23%

64%

Canada's finances

11%

45%

44%

The level of tax you pay

9%

38%

53%

The affordability of your day to day life

9%

46%

45%

The gap between Canada's rich and poor

8%

43%

49%

Your commute to work

8%

20%

73%

© 2018, Ipsos Limited Partnership
This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between June 27 and June 29, 2018, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,002 was interviewed. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
CEO, Global
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 416 324-2001
darrell.bricker@ipsos.com

Sean Simpson
Vice President, Canada
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 416 324-2002
sean.simpson@ipsos.com

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, Ipsos Public Affairs is the polling partner for Global News. Internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.
With offices in 88 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,782.7 million in 2016.

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs, Ipsos
  • Sean Simpson Vice President, Canada, Public Affairs

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