Federal Liberals Rebound (36%, +5), Rally to Tie Tories (35%, -3)

Battleground Ontario also Shows Tight Race Between Federal Liberals (39%) and Tories (38%)

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
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Toronto, Ontario, May 3, 2018 — With the headlines of Justin Trudeau’s ill-fated India trip and other gaffes fading from recent memory, a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News has revealed that the federal Liberals have begun to change the channel on their winter woes and have rebounded strongly as spring emerges.

If a federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau would receive 36% of the decided popular vote, up 5 points from their lows measured in late March. The Conservatives, led by Andrew Scheer, have dropped 3 points and now sit at 35% of the national popular vote, statistically tied with the Liberals. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP also drops 3 points to 20%, while the Bloc (3% nationally) and Green Party (6%) hold steady.

Examining how vote preference breaks down within the regions of Canada:
• The national dogfight also extends into the vote-rich province of Ontario, where the federal Liberals (39%) and the Tories (38%) are tied, well ahead of the NDP (20%) and other parties (4%).
• In Quebec, the Liberals (45%) have a dominating lead over the Tories (20%), NDP (17%), Bloc (13%) and other parties (6%).
• In British Columbia, the Conservatives (35%) are narrowly ahead of the Liberals (30%) and NDP (26%) in a three-way race, while other parties (9%) – including the Green – perform better here than in most other regions.
• In Alberta, the Conservatives (59%) have a predictable lead over the Liberals (23%), NDP (14%) and other parties (5%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (35%) also lead the Liberals (30%) and NDP (26%), while others (10%) trail.
• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (39%) maintain a lead over the Conservatives (31%), NDP (22%) and other parties (9%).

Other key differences exist, driving the national vote preference:
• Among men, the Conservatives (39%) have a narrow lead over the Liberals (35%), NDP (19%), Bloc (3%) and others (5%).
• Among women, the Liberals (38%) are favoured over the Tories (31%), NDP (21%), the Bloc (3%) and others (7%).
Millennials aged 18-34 strongly favour the Liberals (38%) over the NDP (27%), Tories (26%), Bloc (4%) or others (4%).
Gen Xers aged 35-54 are split evenly between the Liberals (37%) and the Conservatives (36%), while the NDP (16%), Bloc (3%) and others (7%) are well back.
• Among Boomers aged 55+, the Tories (41%) hold a solid lead over the Liberals (34%), NDP (18%), Bloc (2%) and others (5%).
© 2018, Ipsos Limited Partnership
This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.


About the Study

These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 24 and 30, 2018, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,907 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources. Oversamples were conducted in BC (n= 526) and Alberta (n=601). Quota sampling and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe – including weighting down BC and Alberta to be in proportion to their population within Canada. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of Canadian American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, Ipsos Public Affairs is the polling partner for Global News. Internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.
With offices in 88 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,782.7 million in 2016.

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs