Tories Poised for Majority as 905 Region Set to Deliver for Ford’s PCs

PCs (39%) and NDP (36%) Close in Province-Wide Popular Vote, Liberals (19%) and Others/Green (6%) Trail; Double-Digit Lead for PCs in 905 Would Secure Tory Government

The author(s)
  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
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Toronto, Ontario, June 6, 2018 — One day ahead of the election in Ontario, a new Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News has revealed that the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario is poised to form a majority government, making Doug Ford the next Premier of Ontario.

If the vote were held today, the popular vote totals among decided voters show the Ford PCs with 39% of the vote (up 2 points), compared to 36% (up 2 points) for the Horwath-led NDP. The incumbent Liberals, led by Premier Kathleen Wynne, would receive 19% support (down 3 points), while other parties, including the Green Party, would receive 6% of the popular vote (down 1 point). Six percent (6%) remain undecided on the eve of election day, while 8% maintain that they won’t vote or would spoil their ballot.

While the overall figures suggest a close race, the seat-rich 905 region of the GTA is likely to deliver Doug Ford and the PCs a majority government:

  • In the 905 area of the GTA, the Tories (45%) have a double-digit lead over the NDP (28%), Liberals (23%) and other parties (5%) who are splitting the progressive vote.
  • In the 416, Toronto proper, the NDP (38%) leads the PCs (35%), Liberals (22%) and others (5%).
  • In Southwestern Ontario, the PCs (41%) and NDP (41%) are in a dead heat (but likely split on urban/rural divides within the region), while the Liberals (10%) are set to be wiped out of the area completely. Other parties are receiving 8% of the vote.
  • In Central Ontario, the PCs (48%) are ahead of the NDP (33%), Liberals (15%) and others (5%).
  • In Eastern Ontario, the NDP (36%) has a slight edge over the PCs (32%) and Liberals (28%), with others (6%) behind.
  • In the North, the NDP (47%) has a commanding lead over the Liberals (25%) and PCs (19%). Nearly one in ten (9%) would choose some other party.

The last week of the campaign has featured two significant events: Premier Wynne’s gambit doesn’t appear to have paid off, as the Liberal vote has softened somewhat since last week; a lawsuit against Doug Ford filed by his late brother’s widow doesn’t appear to have had a negative impact on support for the Tories. The net effect is that the Tories have maintained their three-point advantage heading into the polls.

Examining the popular-vote share by key demographics:

  • Men are solidly in the Ford camp (46%), while fewer are voting for the NDP (33%), Liberals (16%) or others (5%).
  • Women are more evenly split, but still favour the NDP (39%) over the PCs (32%), Liberals (23%) or others (7%).
  • Among Boomers aged 55+, the most likely to show up and vote, the Tories (42%) are favoured, and the progressive vote is split among the NDP (29%) and Liberals (22%). Seven percent (7%) would vote for some other party.
  • Among Gen Xers aged 35-54, the PCs (40%) and NDP (39%) are in a close race, with the Liberals (17%) and others (4%) well back.
  • Among Millennials aged 18-34, the NDP (41%) has a solid lead over the PCs (33%), Liberals (19%) and others (7%), although this is the demographic group is often least likely to show up and vote on E-Day.
  • Education also plays an important part in understanding how people vote:
    • Among those with a university degree, the NDP (40%) is well ahead of the PCs (33%) and Liberals (23%), while others (5%) trail.
    • Among those with some post-secondary education, including a diploma, the Tories (40%) have a slight edge over the NDP (36%), Liberals (18%) and others (6%).
    • Among those with only a high-school diploma, the PCs (45%) take a larger lead over the NDP (33%), Liberals (15%) and others (7%).
    • Among those without a high-school diploma, the Tories (40%) also lead the Liberals (27%), NDP (26%) and others (7%).
  • Among those who were born in Canada, the Tories (40%) lead the NDP (36%), Liberals (18%) and others (6%).
  • Among those who were born in another country, the PCs (35%) and NDP (34%) are essentially tied, with the Liberals (24%) and others (7%) trailing.

Closing the book on Premier Kathleen Wynne and the Liberal government on its last day in office:

  • One in three (32%) approve of the performance of the Wynne government while two thirds (67%) disapprove, virtually unchanged throughout the campaign.
  • Two in ten (20%) believe the Wynne government has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected, while eight in ten (79%) believe it’s time for another party to take over, also maintaining consistency throughout the election campaign. It appears that Ontarians will be getting the change they so strongly desire.

While Doug Ford is set to become Premier of Ontario, he is not the person who Ontarians think would make the best Premier. Four in ten (41%, down 2 points) say that person is Andrea Horwath, while 34% believe it’s Doug Ford (up 1 point). Two in ten (20%, up 1 point) think Kathleen Wynne would continue to be the best Premier, while 5% are unsure of which leader best fits the bill. This is now the second election in a row where a plurality believed that Andrea Horwath would make the best Premier, but is unlikely to get the job.

© 2018, Ipsos Limited Partnership
This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between June 3 to 5, 2018, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,501 Ontario eligible voters was interviewed online (1000 Ontarian eligible voters aged 18+ from Ipsos' online panel were interviewed online, supplemented by river-based sampling) and by telephone (501 Ontarian eligible voters aged 18+ via live-operator random-digit dialing, dual-frame cellphone (70%) and landline (30%)). Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible Ontario voters been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, CEO
Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of Canadian American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, Ipsos Public Affairs is the polling partner for Global News. Internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.
With offices in 88 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,782.7 million in 2016.

The author(s)
  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs