Slim Majority (54%) of Canadians Support an Election in the Fall of 2020
Toronto, ON, September 22, 2020 – The upcoming Throne Speech and resulting budget will provide ample opportunity for the opposition parties to defeat the government and cause an election, and according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News, a slim majority (54%) of Canadians agree (17% strongly/36% somewhat) that they would support an election being held in the fall of 2020.
Supporters of the opposition parties are much more likely to be clamouring for an election: 77% of Conservative voters support an election being held, while slimmer majorities of Bloc (59%), NDP (53%), and Green (52%) voters agree. Conversely, only one in three (33%) Liberal party voters support an election being called.
Whether an election will actually occur this fall produces mixed predictions across Canada. While 49% of Canadians agree (10% strongly/39% somewhat) that there will be, 51% disagree (11% strongly/39% somewhat) that they believe there will be an election this fall. Once again, one’s likelihood of holding this belief falls along government-opposition lines.
One of the key points of contention in the upcoming Throne Speech and budget is likely to be around deficits, the size of deficit, and whether there is a credible plan to return to balanced budgets in the future. On this topic, half (50%) of Canadians agree (18% strongly/32% somewhat) that if the government wants to increase spending, they should call an election, while the other half (50%) of Canadians disagree (14% strongly/36% somewhat) that a desire to increase spending necessitates an election call. Conservative voters, however, more firmly believe (72%) that an election should be called if the government wants to increase spending.
In fact, it is the potential size of deficits, more than the simple fact that the Conservatives have a new leader, that Canadians believe has a greater impact on whether an election should be called. Just four in ten (40%) Canadians agree that, given the Conservatives have a new leader in Erin O’Toole, we need an immediate election to clear the air.
Canadians are increasingly of the belief that the federal deficit is excessive. Reflecting on the size of the federal deficit, a majority (55%) now believes it is too much (+12 points since the end of May), while 38% believe it’s about right (-11 points), and 7% believe the size of the deficit is too little (-1). And while still a majority, fewer Canadians (57%, down 12 points) are willing to give the Prime Minister a blank cheque than they did earlier this year, agreeing (14% strongly/43% somewhat) that they support running whatever size federal deficit the Prime Minister says is necessary to get Canada through the crisis.
In fact, a strategy to return to balanced budgets is a requirement for many voters when considering whether to vote for a party. Eight in ten (78%) Canadians agree (23% strongly/55% somewhat) that in order for them to consider voting for a political party in the next election, they must have a reasonable plan to get back to balanced budgets in a timely manner. This includes 83% of undecided voters who presently say this is a condition of their vote consideration. Even 71% of current Liberal voters say they want to see this type of plan when considering who to vote for in the next election, whenever it is.
This next Throne Speech and budget will be all about balancing competing priorities, investing in new programs while remaining fiscally responsible. Here is where Canadians stand on some of those competing priorities:
- Half (50%) agree (11% strongly/39% somewhat) that the federal government should invest significantly in new social programs even if it means going further into financial deficit. Liberal (65%), NDP (64%) and Green (66%) voters are most likely to agree, while only 26% of Conservative voters say the same.
- A slim majority (54%) agrees (17% strongly/37% somewhat) that we can’t afford to worry about the environment right now – economic recovery must be the priority. A majority of Conservative (70%) and Bloc (54%) voters feel this way, while only a minority of Liberal (48%), NDP (40%) and Green (24%) voters feel this way.
- Six in ten (57%) agree (22% strongly/35% somewhat) that Canada should create a basic universal income for all Canadians, meaning that all Canadians would receive a guaranteed amount of money from the government regardless of whether we work or not. Support for this concept is greatest among Green (77%) and NDP (68%) voters, followed by Liberal (64%), Bloc (63%) and finally Tory (43%) voters.
- Nearly two in three (63%) agree (20% strongly/43% somewhat) that Canada should make fighting climate change a priority in its economic-recovery plan, a concept that is shared by more Green (83%), NDP (77%), Liberal (76%) and Bloc (59%) voters than Tory voters (33%).
- Three quarters (73%) agree (19% strongly/54% somewhat) that the government should provide more childcare options for people raising young families while working – rising to 79% among those with kids in the household. A majority of each party’s voters support this idea, with the lowest being 55% of Conservative voters.
- The same proportion (73%) agrees (18% strongly/55% somewhat) that the Trudeau Government’s Speech from the Throne should be dealing with the pandemic today rather than proposing big plans for the future. This is something that is supported by a majority of voters for every party, rising to 79% among Liberal voters, dropping to 55% among Green Party supporters.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 11 and 14, 2020, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
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