Ballot-Box Bonus Likely for Progressive Conservatives as their Voters are Most Certain to Turn out, Most Committed to their Choice
Toronto, ON, May 26, 2022 – The ten-point advantage that the Progressive Conservatives have over the Liberals in the popular vote has the potential to grow on election day with the Tories likely to receive a ballot-box bonus at the polls, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.
Overall, six in ten (61%) Ontarians say they’re completely certain to vote on election day. This is close to the 58% turnout of the 2018 provincial election. Those who have declared their support for the Progressive Conservatives are most likely (74%) to say they’re certain to vote this time, ahead of NDP (71%), Liberal (65%) and Green Party (42%) voters.
Half (51%) of Ontarians who have chosen which party they will support say they’re absolutely certain of their vote choice and won’t change their mind between now and Election Day, with PC voters (66%) much more likely than Liberal (51%), NDP (36%) and Green Party (19%) voters to be certain of their choice. This suggests there is some potential for movement in the last week of the campaign, especially between the NDP and Liberals as Ontarians who are opposed to the Ford government struggle with the best option for stopping them.
However, the data shows that identifying which party is best positioned to spoil another Ford victory is proving difficult for opposition voters: the Liberals (20%), NDP (19%) and Green Party (17%) are all nearly equally favoured as Ontarians’ second choice, while just 12% would choose to vote for the PCs as their second choice:
- Among PC voters, the NDP (18%) and Liberals (17%) are equally favoured as the second choice, while 14% would opt to vote Green. Two in ten (20%) wouldn’t vote if they couldn’t vote for the PCs as their first choice.
- Among Liberal voters, 41% would vote for the NDP second, while 18% would vote PC and 12% Green. One in ten (10%) wouldn’t vote if they couldn’t vote for the Liberals as their first choice.
- Among NDP voters, 42% would vote for the Liberals, 28% for the Greens, and 16% for the PCs. One percent (1%) wouldn’t vote if they couldn’t vote for the NDP as their first choice.
- Among Green voters, the Liberals (22%) and NDP (21%) are equal beneficiaries of their redistributed votes, while just 10% would vote for the PCs. Two in ten (21%) wouldn’t vote if they couldn’t vote for the Greens as their first choice.
These data show that there is roughly an equal opportunity for Liberal voters to switch to the NDP (41%) as NDP voters to switch to the Liberals (42%), meaning either could grow their vote support at the expense of the other – it’s just not clear which one has the greater advantage heading into the final week of the campaign. Further, while the Tory support base is larger and more solid, it has less opportunity to grow from its current level of vote support but doesn’t need to with their 10-point lead.
To give a glimpse into how campaign strategy could affect vote switching in the final days of the campaign, one can examine voter expectations for who is likely to win, their motivation for voting, and how this effects their vote preference:
- Nearly half (45%) believe that Doug Ford and the PCs will win on June 2nd, while relatively few believe that Steven Del Duca’s Liberals (14%) or Andrea Horwath’s NDP (10%) will win. One in three (32%) don’t know who will win the election. In an election where the outcome is more certain, many could feel less urgency to vote, or will vote more on principle than pragmatism, such as voting strategically.
- Three in ten (30%) Ontarians agree (16% strongly) that their primary goal on Election Day is to stop Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives from winning the election, with NDP (53%) and Liberal (47%) voters are roughly equal on this question.
- More believe that the Liberals (57%) have the better chance of defeating the Tories than the NDP (43%) does. Among those who think the Liberals have the better chance, 43% are voting for the Liberals; among those who think the NDP has the better chance, 42% are voting for the NDP.
This is more evidence that the anti-Ford vote has yet to solidify around either the Liberals or NDP. If this situation persists, the vote splitting between the progressive parties will benefit the Progressive Conservatives, and the status quo is likely to prevail.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between May 17 and 19, 2022, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 1501 Ontarians aged 18+ was interviewed online (n = 1001 though the Ipsos I-Say panel and non panel sources) and by live-operator telephone interview (n = 500 through landline and cellphones). Online respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
© 2022, Ipsos Limited Partnership
This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]
Sean Simpson
Senior Vice President, Ipsos Public Affairs Canada
+1 416 324 2002
[email protected]
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