Canada’s Youngest Voters Setting Aside Ideals for Strategy in #Elxn44

Toronto, ON, September 15, 2021 — According to Statistics Canada, 7.3 million people were born between 1993 and 2011.[1] Generation Z[2], as they are colloquially known, will become Canada’s largest generation and with more Gen Zers turning 18 every day they will become Canada’s largest voting block. Ipsos polling shows that at least a quarter of this generation who will be eligible to vote in this election did not vote in 2019, likely as they were not yet eligible voters. This means that for many the 44^th federal election will be their first opportunity to vote since coming of age. And if Gen Z is to be believed, they will be voting: 67% of Gen Z is “certain” they will vote in this election, an improvement from 2019 when only 52% of eligible Gen Zers voted.[3]  Using the most recent polling carried out exclusively for Global News, Ipsos takes a closer look at the political preferences of Gen Z Canadians during the 2021 federal election campaign.

Gen Z- the Strategic Voter

During an election campaign, especially one where parties are polling so closely, we often hear discussion of “voting strategically”. While young people are often characterized by their optimism and to some extent their naiveté, Ipsos polling shows that Gen Z voters are in fact considering their votes strategically. The idea behind strategic voting is that you set aside your ideals and vote for someone who has the best chance to win, thereby holding at bay the person you really don’t want to become Prime Minister.

Gen Z is considering voting strategically this election cycle: four in ten (41%) say they will vote for a candidate they think could win but is not their first choice, compared to 25% of the general population who says the same thing. Who is the candidate Gen Z thinks could win? It seems many have not decided or are waffling on their decision: 10% of Gen Z are undecided voters. Even among those who provided a preferred party, 68% aren’t absolutely certain that their stated party is who they’ll actually vote for. Their desire to vote strategically coupled with the fact that many Gen Zers remain undecided makes them prime targets for campaign advertisement and thus far Gen Zers have been swayed: a third (28%) say that campaign announcements made so far have changed their intended vote, higher than the 16% average. In the 2019 Federal Election, a quarter (26%) of Gen Z voters said they decided their votes in the last week of the campaign, meaning that it is now or never for parties and leaders to make their appeal to this generation. So how will this all play out in the 2021?

Gen Z Wants to Vote Green, But Likely Won’t

The foundation of strategic voting is that who you want to vote for is not necessarily who you’re going to vote for. The data shows that Gen Z is currently allocating their votes between the three major parties. But beneath the statistics that show Gen Z will vote Conservative, Liberal, or NDP, are figures that show that Gen Z is engaged with the Green Party and its leader Annamie Paul. In fact, on many metrics, Gen Z is more likely than any other generation to show support for the Greens and Ms. Paul.

Given that climate change is a major election issue for nearly a third (29%) of Gen Zers, it may seem unsurprising that this generation wants to support the Greens. Perhaps more interesting is Gen Z’s interest in Annamie Paul given that this is her first election as party leader.

When asked who would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, mainstream leaders Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh both receive high marks from Gen Z (38% and 35% respectively). But it is the leader of the Greens who has resonated with Gen Z more than any other generation: Gen Zers are more than twice as likely than any other generation to say that Annamie Paul would be the best Prime Minister (10% Gen Z vs.4% Millennial, 4% Gen X, 3% Boomer).

What goes into considering someone the “best prime minister”? Ipsos asked Canadians which party leader best suited a variety of traits. The leader of the Greens received relatively low scores across the board at the national level- likely reflecting that this is her first federal election as a party leader and she is relatively unknown. Intergenerationally however, Gen Z shows they have stronger feelings towards Ms. Paul than other generations. Gen Z is significantly more likely to highlight Ms. Paul as:

Annamie Paul is someone who:

These proportions are not large, but what is it that has led Gen Z to connect with Annamie Paul in a way that other generations have not? Perhaps Gen Zers are attracted to someone who looks and sounds like them? Gen Z is Canada’s most ethnically diverse cohort- in the 2016 Census, 27.5% identified themselves as a visible minority, more than any generation before them. Is Gen Z attracted to someone who could bring more gender and racial diversity to parliament? Or is it that Gen Zers feel a connection with Paul as public figure who has fought against racism and sexism in politics as Gen Z is more likely than any other generation to highlight racism and discrimination (14% Gen Z vs. 6% Millennials, 3% Gen X, 4% Boomers) or women’s issues (12% Gen Z vs. 4% Millennial, 2% Gen X, 1% Boomer) as a top campaign issue.

While Gen Z connects with Annamie Paul and the Green party more than any other generation, they are not voting for her in 2021. If the election were held tomorrow, 31% of Gen Z would vote Liberal, 27% Conservative, and 27% NDP. Only 6% say they would actually cast a ballot for the Greens.

Gen Z Votes Up for Grabs?

If we acknowledge that Gen Z won’t be voting Green, but that they likely will be voting, then the next question is which major party will get their votes? Justin Trudeau may be the only Prime Minister Gen Z have any memories of, and they are generally satisfied with the job he has done- 52% say they approve of his performance, compared to 47% of the general population, while 57% say things in Canada are currently on the right track, compared to 48% of the general population.

But the Liberals don’t have the Gen Z vote locked in- 32% of Gen Zers say they are more likely to vote NDP since the campaign began, fully 10 points higher than the national average. While the Liberals and NDP both have a chance at the Gen Z vote, Conservatives should not despair- Gen Z is nearly as likely as Boomers to say there is a potential that they would vote Conservative in 2021 (31% Gen Z, 20% Millennial, 27% Gen X, 38% Boomer).

So despite their commitment to climate change and affinity for Annamie Paul, Gen Z is not going to vote Green in 2021.They’re either undecided or uncertain if they will actually vote for their preferred party. Gen Z is a generation who has not yet made up their minds who they will be voting for, but they’re committed to voting. What makes Gen Z different from other demographics is that their political sway will only become more evident in future elections. As more Gen Zers turn 18 and become eligible to vote, their voices will take up increasing market share in the political sphere. The data suggest that Annamie Paul has made inroads with this population early. However, Gen Z votes are still up for grabs as evidenced by the figures that show how divided their votes are. Given how tight the race is between the three major parties there remains an opportunity to capitalize on the Gen Z vote.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between August 13 and September 6, 2021 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 6,502 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n = 6,002 was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. A sample of n = 500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed by live-interview telephone interviewers by landline and cellphone, using random-digit dialing. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. From this sample, n = 420 respondents identified as 905 residents, and these respondents are the focus of this factum.

In all surveys, quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 5.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all 905 residents been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

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This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Haley Jones

Account Manager, Canada, Ipsos Public Affairs
[email protected]

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
[email protected]

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[1] https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/98-311-x/98-311-x2011003_2-eng.cfm

[2] Ipsos polls Canadians aged 18+, so for the purposes of our surveys Gen Z refers to persons born after the year 2003

[3]https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rec/part/genz&document=p8&lang=e