In the Wake of Wildfires and Floods, Natural Disasters are Fastest Growing Threat for Canadians

Toronto, ON, December 8, 2021 –   2021 is a year that has seen great focus on climate change. The UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) was held in Glasgow in November, and politicians across the world made calls to “build back greener.” In Canada, the threat of climate change has felt closer than years previous with coastal regions encountering both flood and fire at different times of the year. Given this, it is perhaps unsurprising that natural disasters are shown to be the fastest growing threat in the eyes of Canadians. A recent poll conducted on behalf of the Halifax International Security Forum shows how perceived threat levels are changing across the world.  

These are some of the findings of a survey of more than 22,000 adults in 28 countries conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform between September 24 and October 8, 2021.

Most believe the world is becoming more dangerous, with hacking topping list of threats

Despite the emergence of a COVID-19 vaccine and a sense that we may soon be “returning to normal,” a majority (83%) of Canadians agree that the world became more dangerous over the last year, on par with the global average of 82%. Furthermore, a majority (60%) of Canadians disagree with the idea that when they really think about it, things are better better in the world than are getting worse, a pessimism that exceeds the global average by nearly 10 points.

What might be driving Canadians to feel endangered? An Ipsos poll of citizens from 28 countries on behalf of the Halifax International Security Forum presented respondents with eight possible threat scenarios and asked them to consider how real they feel the potential for each threat is to occur in the next 12 months.

Canadians highlight being hacked for fraudulent or espionage purposes (80%) as the scenario that feels most threatening to them, followed by the threat of a health epidemic (78%) and natural disaster (62%). Contrastingly, fewer indicate that the threat of violent conflict between ethnic or minority groups (54%), personal safety threats (49%), or the potential for Canada to enter into armed conflict with another country (33%) feel real and threatening at the present time.

The data also show how perceived threat levels are changing year over year. Perhaps unsurprising given the progress made in vaccination efforts, fewer Canadians indicate feeling threatened by a major health epidemic (-3 pts compared to last year).[1] However, in all other cases, Canadians are feeling increasingly concerned, with the threat of a terrorist attack (+6 pts) and natural disaster (+8 pts) both seeing significant increases from 2020. 

Gap exists between threat level and preparedness

What Canadians feel threatened by and what they believe their country is prepared to handle are not necessarily the same. The data shows that while Canadians indicate the threat of being hacked feels most real to them (80% threatened), they also feel least confident that their government can provide appropriate levels of protection in such an event (49% confident). Contrastingly, while the threat of entering into armed conflict feels comparatively lesser for Canadians (33%), it is the scenario respondents feel their government/its agencies are most prepared to handle (50% confident). What is notable, is that while threat perceptions have increased, perceptions of preparedness have not suggesting that in the coming years Canadians may see an ever growing gap between what they feel threatens their country, and what they believe their country is prepared to handle.

About the Study

These are the results of a 28-market survey conducted by Ipsos on its Global Advisor online platform. Ipsos interviewed a total of 22,016 adults aged 18-74 in the United States, Canada, Malaysia, South Africa, and Turkey, and adults aged 16-74 in 23 other markets between Friday, September 24 and Friday, October 8, 2021.

The sample consists of approximately 1,000 individuals in each of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, mainland China, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Spain, and the U.S., and 500 individuals in each of Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, India, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.

The samples in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the U.S. can be taken as representative of their general adult population under the age of 75.

The samples in Brazil, Chile, mainland China, Colombia, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey are more urban, more educated, and/or more affluent than the general population. The survey results for these countries should be viewed as reflecting the views of the more “connected” segment of their population.

The data is weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the most recent census data.

“The Global Country Average” reflects the average result for all the countries and markets where the survey was conducted. It has not been adjusted to the population size of each country or market and is not intended to suggest a total result.

Where results do not sum to 100 or the ‘difference’ appears to be +/-1 more/less than the actual, this may be due to rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don't know” or not stated responses.

The precision of Ipsos online polls is calculated using a credibility interval with a poll of 1,000 accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points and of 500 accurate to +/- 5.0 percentage points. For more information on Ipsos' use of credibility intervals, please visit the Ipsos website. The publication of these findings abides by local rules and regulations.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Sanyam Sethi
Vice President, Ipsos Public Affairs
[email protected]

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

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[1] Polling was conducted prior to the discovery of the Omricron variant.

[2] Level of perceived preparation minus level of concern.