Poilievre overtakes Trudeau as best candidate for PM by plurality of Canadians

Canadians most likely to select Poilievre as the candidate who wants to lead for the right reasons

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
  • Sean Simpson SVP, Canada, Public Affairs
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Toronto, ON, September 29, 2022 – Although new to his role as leader of the Conservative Party, an Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News reveals more Canadians believe that Pierre Poilievre, rather than Justin Trudeau, would make the best Prime Minister of Canada.

In the final days of the 2021 Federal Election campaign, when asked the same question, Canadians were divided on whom they thought was best to lead the country with Trudeau (28%) and then Conservative leader Erin O’Toole (27%) receiving comparable scores. One year later and with a new Conservative leader, the field has changed, with Poilievre sitting 4 points ahead of Trudeau, and nearly 10 points ahead of Singh.

Best Candidate for PM

Pierre Poilievre

35%

Justin Trudeau

31%

Jagmeet Singh

26%

Yves-François Blanchet

8%

Perceptions of Poilievre as the best Prime Minister are higher among men (42% vs. women 29%). Belief that Justin Trudeau would be best Prime Minister is statistically balanced across the genders.

Regionally, residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (54%), Alberta (44%) and Ontario (41%) are more likely to consider the Conservative leader as the best prime minister (vs. 36% BC, 35% ATL, 18% QC). For Justin Trudeau, even where he sees the strongest perceptions that he would be the best Prime Minister (BC 38%), he is no more than 2 points ahead of Poilievre. Beyond BC, it is only in Quebec (where Blanchet is the preference for PM at 32%) and Atlantic Canada (where Jagmeet Singh is considered best candidate for PM by 44%) where Poilievre is not considered the best choice for Prime Minister.

Best Candidate for PM by Region

 

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

Pierre Poilievre

36%

44%

54%

41%

18%

35%

Justin Trudeau

38%

27%

23%

34%

30%

22%

Jagmeet Singh

26%

29%

24%

25%

20%

44%

Yves-François Blanchet

-

-

-

-

32%

-

 

The data show, however, that the person Canadians think would be best to lead the country is not necessarily the individual whom they feel most favourable towards. The federal party leader who receives the most positive perceptions is Jagmeet Singh, with nearly four in ten (38%) Canadians saying they feel favourably towards the NDP leader, and no significant variance by age or gender. Just over a third (35%) of Canadians feel favourable towards Justin Trudeau while 31% feel favourably towards Poilievre. Favourability for the Liberal and Conservative leaders differ by gender, with women feeling more favourable towards Trudeau (39% vs. 31% men), while men show greater affinity for Poilievre (39% vs. 23% women). There are no significant differences in favourability towards either party leader across age groups.

Poilievre Leads on Positive Traits

Although he has yet to be tested by an election campaign, perceptions of Pierre Poilievre are more positive than negative. Of the party leaders, he receives the strongest ratings for wanting to lead Canada for the right reasons (25%), having the best plan for Canada (24%), being someone who will get things done (24%), being someone who will fight for the middle class (23%), and being someone who gives Canadians hope for the future (22%).

Skepticism persists around the federal party leaders and their role in the future of Canada: four in ten or more Canadians feel that none of the federal leaders will get government spending under control (44%), heal our divisions and bring Canadians closer together (44%), make things more affordable (43%), is someone they can trust (43%), would be someone they’d want to have a beer or coffee with (42%), has the best plan for the economy or healthcare (41% respectively), would spend taxpayer money wisely (40%), means what they say (40%), or would provide open, responsible, and ethical government (40%).

Justin Trudeau remains the leader who Canadians feel has the right temperament and maturity to be PM (26%). However, Trudeau also leads on negative traits, including 37% of Canadians who feel Trudeau is in over his head. Nearly three in ten (28%) Canadians feel Justin Trudeau has a hidden agenda, a trait which is typically attributed to the Conservative leader of the day. A comparable 30% assign this same attribute to Poilievre.

Jagmeet Singh is the leader that Canadians believe would protect the interests of cultural, religious, and other minorities in Canada (27%), and, perhaps reflecting his high favourability score, is the leader Canadians would most want to share a beer or coffee with (19%).

Party Leader Attributes: Which Major Federal Party Leader is Someone Who Is/Will…

 

Trudeau

Poilievre

Singh

Blanchet

None of them

In over their head

37%

21%

10%

3%

29%

Has a hidden agenda

28%

30%

10%

2%

29%

Has the right temperament and maturity to be PM

26%

23%

17%

5%

29%

Will respect our traditions and institutions

24%

22%

15%

5%

33%

Has the best plan for Canada

21%

24%

15%

3%

37%

Get things done

21%

24%

15%

4%

36%

Wants to lead Canada for the right reasons

21%

25%

21%

3%

31%

Protect the interests of cultural, religious, and other minorities in Canada

20%

18%

27%

3%

32%

Whose values represent my own

19%

22%

18%

5%

36%

Has the best plan for the economy

18%

26%

12%

3%

41%

Will heal our divisions and bring Canadians closer together

17%

20%

17%

2%

44%

You’d want to have a beer or coffee with

17%

17%

19%

4%

42%

Has the best plan for healthcare

17%

19%

19%

4%

41%

Gives me hope about the future

17%

22%

18%

4%

39%

Cares about the average Canadian

17%

22%

22%

3%

36%

Fight for the middle class

17%

23%

21%

4%

35%

You can trust

16%

19%

18%

4%

43%

Spend taxpayer money wisely

16%

24%

15%

4%

41%

Means what they say

16%

22%

17%

6%

40%

Provide open, responsible, and ethical government

16%

22%

19%

2%

40%

Understands the day-to-day issues people like me deal with

16%

22%

19%

5%

39%

Make things more affordable

15%

22%

17%

4%

43%

Will get government spending under control

14%

26%

12%

4%

44%

 

Poilievre Support for Truckers Not Likely to Impact Vote Intention

With the recent election of Poilievre to his leadership position, questions have been asked on whether his support for the February’s trucker protest would impact vote intention. Overall, 41% of Canadians say that Poilievre’s support for the trucker protest – or freedom convoy – doesn’t impact their vote intention, while the same proportion (41%) say it would make them less likely to support him. One sixth (17%) say that they’d be more likely to vote for Poilievre due to his support of the truckers and the freedom convoy.

However, a closer look at the data shows that attitudes largely fall along party lines: Liberal (69%) and NDP (65%) voters are most likely to say that this information leads them to be less likely to support Poilievre. Contrastingly, Conservative voters are more likely to say Poilievre’s support for the truckers makes them more likely to vote for him (42%). Undecided voters are most likely to say this information doesn’t impact their attitude in either direction (70%). This suggests that Poilievre’s support for the Freedom convoy hasn’t significantly shifted his base by either drawing in Liberal or NDP voters, or pushing away Conservatives, suggesting that it will on the whole have little impact on vote intention.

 

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 19-20th, 2022, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,002 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

 

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324-2001
[email protected]

 

Sean Simpson
Senior Vice President, Ipsos Public Affairs Canada
+1 416 324 2002
[email protected]

 

About Ipsos

Ipsos is the world’s third largest market research company, present in 90 markets and employing more than 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. We serve more than 5000 clients across the world with 75 business solutions.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1st, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

 

ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP

 

www.ipsos.com

The author(s)

  • Darrell Bricker Global CEO, Public Affairs
  • Sean Simpson SVP, Canada, Public Affairs

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