Trudeau Best Choice for Prime Minister, say Canadians (34%, -5), But Lead over O’Toole and Singh Shrinking Fast

Toronto, ON, September 4, 2021 — As week three of the campaign comes to a close, a new Ipsos poll done exclusively for Global News reveals that Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole and New Democrat Party leader Jagmeet Singh are closing the gap on Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau as Canadians’ choice for best prime minister.

Trudeau Remains Best Candidate for PM

Despite a five-point decrease since the start of the campaign, more Canadians (34%, -5) feel that Justin Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister of Canada. Both Erin O’Toole and Jagmeet Singh have seen their leadership appeal rise since the start of the campaign (29%, +4 and +6 respectively). Fewer Canadians see Annamie Paul (4%, unchanged) and Yves-François Blanchet (4%, unchanged, 16% in Quebec, -2) as the best candidate for Prime Minster of Canada. 

Based on current Ipsos polling data, Trudeau and Singh continue to poll ahead of the overall vote intention for their respective parties (31% of Canadians say they intend to vote for the Liberal party, and 34% of Canadians say Trudeau is the best fit to be the Prime Minister; 23% of Canadians intend to vote for the NDP, and 29% of Canadians say Singh is the best fit to be the Prime Minister). O’Toole and Blanchet are trailing their parties, but O’Toole is quickly catching up to his party’s popular vote. Trudeau and the Liberals dropped by five points in polling for both best candidate for PM and vote intention since the start of the campaign.

At the start of the campaign, Trudeau received a vote of confidence in terms of being the best candidate for Prime Minister across most regions – Ontario, Quebec, BC, and Atlantic Canada. However, Trudeau has since lost support in Ontario (33%, -7) and BC (28%, -11), with Jagmeet Singh now seen as the best candidate for PM in both provinces (38% BC, 36% Ontario). The Prairie provinces also continue to be more skeptical of Trudeau’s leadership (27% AB, 15% SK/MB), favouring O’Toole as the best fit for Prime Minister (43% AB, 43% SK/MB). Younger voters remain more likely to support Singh, whereas the older voters split their support between O’Toole (37%) and Trudeau (38%).

Trudeau and the Liberals Continue to Stumble

Much skepticism persists around the federal party leaders and their role in the future of Canada, with four in ten (40%, +2) Canadians feeling that none of the leaders will keep their election promise, and a third (33%, -2) who feel that none of the candidates will make things more affordable.

In spite of the decreases, Trudeau remains as the top leader who Canadians feel will best represent the country on the world stage (32%, -7), can manage Canada during tough economic times (27%, -7), and has the right temperament and maturity to be the Prime Minster (28%, -6).

At the start of the campaign Trudeau led the other party leaders on all 16 positive traits tested. That has changed. Jagmeet Singh now leads on most of the positive traits and Justin Trudeau now leads on only 4 positive traits. Erin O’Toole continues to trail the other two major party leaders on positive traits, even though perceptions of him are improving overall.

There have been some other notable developments for Justin Trudeau since the campaign began, particularly that 46% (+2) of Canadians feel Trudeau will say anything to get elected, 36% (unchanged) feel he has a hidden agenda (likely connected to his not-so-hidden desire for a majority government), and only 22% (-6) feel he is the leader they can most trust. Notably, a third (34%, -4) feel that he is in over his head, highest among the candidates.

Comparing O’Toole and Singh, Singh leads O’Toole across all positive traits, and remarkably, they are tied for who will spend taxpayers’ money wisely (22%). Singh has risen since the start of the campaign, and is now ahead of Trudeau for the candidate who will protect the interests of cultural, religious, and other minorities in Canada (39% vs 23% Trudeau, 14% O’Toole). Compared to Singh, O’Toole leads Singh for hidden agenda (32% vs 6%), will say anything to get elected (29% vs 6%), and is in over their head (19% vs 8%).

Comparing these perceptions to the recent Ipsos polling on vote intent, it is unsurprising to see Singh rise, and lead, among most of these positive traits. The NDP, and Jagmeet Singh as a party leader, have risen in the polls throughout the campaign period thus far, whereas Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have struggled to resonate with voters.

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About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between August 27-30, 2021 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 1,501 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

© 2021, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action. Detailed tabular data tables can be found here: https://ipsosintelligence.ca/canadiancontext/

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]