UCP (47%, down 5) Lead Shrinks to 8-Points Over NDP (39%, up 4)

Notley (32%, up 2) Leads Kenney (28%, down 5) as Best Premier

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  • Gregory Jack Vice President, Public Affairs
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Calgary, AB A new Global/Ipsos poll conducted after the leaders’ debate shows the United Conservative Party (UCP) still ahead among decided and leaning Alberta voters, but with their lead cut in half compared to an Ipsos poll conducted just before the election call (March 15-17). Jason Kenney has slipped on several leadership attributes and now trails Rachel Notley by a narrow margin as perceived best premier of Alberta.

The Horserace

Vote: The United Conservative Party (UCP) continues to have a healthy lead over the NDP, although that lead among decided voters has fallen from 17-points to 8-points today. Currently, 47% (down 5 from Mar 15-17) of decided and leaning voters say they would be most likely to support or lean towards the UCP, compared to 39% for the NDP (up 4). The Alberta Party has also shown growth at 10% support (up 4), while the Alberta Liberals have slipped (2%, down 3 points). Other parties garner a combined 2% (unchanged). These results exclude the 19% (unchanged) of Albertans who are undecided or express no preference.

  • Regions: The UCP leads by 5-points in Calgary (45% UCP vs. 40% NDP) and the NDP leads by 7-points in Edmonton (47% NDP vs. 40% UCP). The UCP continues to lead by a wide margin in the rest of Alberta (57% UCP vs. 29% NDP).
  • Age Gap: The NDP has a narrow 4-point lead among the 18-34 years segment (43% NDP vs. 39% UCP). The UCP have an 8-point lead among the 35-54 years segment (47% UCP vs. 39% NDP) and a larger 18-point lead among the 55+ years segment (54% UCP vs. 36% NDP). If turnout follows the normal pattern skewing to the 55+ years segment, the UCP’s lead could be a few points higher than the 8-points among all voters.

Voter Certainty: The UCP’s vote is still slightly more solid than the NDP’s. Nearly seven-in-ten (68%, up 5) UCP voters say they are ‘very certain’ that they will vote UCP on election day. This compares to six-in-ten (59%, up 12) NDP voters and just one-third (34%, up 1) of Alberta Party voters.

Time for Change: Albertans continue to be open to change. A slim majority (51%, down 1) believe it’s time for another provincial party to take over. Only one-third (32%, up 1) believe the Notley government has done a good job and deserves re-election, while 17% (unchanged) are undecided.

The Issues

Top Issues: The top three campaign issues include jobs/employment (36%, up 6), building pipelines (21%, down 4) and healthcare (19%, up 1). Other issues of concern include the general economy (16%, down 6) and oil and gas issues (16%, up 3).

Leadership

Best Premier: Jason Kenney has slipped in Albertans’ assessment of who would make the best premier of Alberta. Kenney (28%, down 5) now trails Rachel Notley (32%, up 2) as the leader Albertans think would make the best premier of the province. Stephen Mandel is an improving third choice (11%, up 3), while only 3% (up 1) select David Khan. One-quarter (26%, unchanged) of Albertans are undecided as to which party leader would make the best premier.

Leadership Qualities: Jason Kenney still has a sizable lead over Rachel Notley as the leader best described as tough (15 point lead). Kenney trails Notley on all other tested attributes especially caring (18 point deficit) and likeable (10 point deficit). Stephen Mandel improved on several attributes, especially being the most honest leader (14%, up 6).

Which of the party leaders do you think is best described by each of the following words?

Rachel Notley

Jason Kenney

Stephen Mandel

David Khan

Don’t know

Caring

37% (+2)

19% (-3)

8% (+1)

3% (=)

33% (=)

Competent

32% (+2)

29% (-5)

9% (+1)

3% (-1)

28% (+3)

Honest

26% (-2)

19% (-4)

14% (+6)

4% (+1)

38% (=)

Likeable

32% (+1)

22% (-1)

15% (+3)

5% (+1)

26% (-5)

Smart

29% (=)

25% (-5)

11% (+2)

6% (+2)

28% (=)

Tough

22% (-2)

37% (=)

4% (-4)

4% (+1)

32% (+4)

Trustworthy

27% (-2)

20% (-4)

11% (+3)

3% (=)

39% (+2)

Note:  Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Campaign Momentum

Changing Impressions: Alberta voters have turned more negative than positive against both leading parties in this election campaign. Since the start of the campaign, impressions of Jason Kenney and the UCP are more likely to have worsened (38%) than improved (18%). The results are only slightly less negative for Rachel Notley and the NDP (31% worsened vs. 17% improved).

The only positive momentum is for Stephen Mandel and the Alberta Party who have more improved impressions (18%) than worsened impressions (10%). The results for David Khan and the Liberals are flat (12% improved vs. 14% worsened).

Issue Impact: Four-in-ten (42%) voters say they have become less likely to vote for Jason Kenney and the UCP after hearing about allegations of connections to past racist, sexist, and homophobic comments. One-in-ten (12%) are more likely to vote UCP because of these allegations, while 34% say it has made no change and 12% are undecided. Among current UCP voters, more likely (24%) is higher than less likely (11%).

One-third (32%) of voters say they have become less likely to vote for Rachel Notley and the NDP after learning about their platform on the economy. Two-in-ten (18%) are more likely to vote NDP because of their economic platform, while 37% say no change and 14% are undecided. Among current NDP voters, more likely (47%) is much higher than less likely (4%).

Expected Outcome

A majority (56%, up 2) of Albertans continue to expect a UCP election win, with more expecting a UCP majority (36%, unchanged) than UCP minority (20%, up 3). Two-in-ten (22%, up 1) are expecting the NDP to retain power (12% majority, up 4 - 10% minority, down 2). Another two-in-ten (19%, down 3) have no opinion as to which party will win the upcoming election.

About the Study

These are the findings of a Global/Ipsos poll conducted between April 5 and 8, 2019. For this survey, a sample of 800 Alberta eligible voters was interviewed online via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources. The precision of Ipsos polls conducted online is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall results are accurate to within ±4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

© 2019, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data.  Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Gregory Jack
Vice President, Canada, Public Affairs
+1 403 604-7804
gregory.jack@ipsos.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.

With offices in 89 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,780.5 million in 2017.

The author(s)

  • Gregory Jack Vice President, Public Affairs

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