Strong Majority of Albertans Plan to Vote for Alberta to Stay in Canada

If this referendum were held tomorrow, how would you vote or lean on the following question? 
Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada? 

There will be a provincial referendum in Alberta on October 19, 2026. To the best of your knowledge, which of the following best describes what Albertans will be voting on in the October 19 referendum?

As you may know, Albertans will be presented with ten separate referendum questions on October 19.  Voters may choose which questions, if any, they wish to vote on. 
Which of the following best describes your current plans?

Seven in 10 Albertans said they plan to vote for Alberta to remain a province of Canada in the upcoming referendum on October 19th, a statistically insignificant drop of 2%.  Among the 20% who said they would vote for Alberta to commence the process of holding another binding referendum, support was highest among men (25%), Gen Z (28%) and Albertans outside of Calgary and Edmonton (28%).  

A strong majority (76%) are aware there are several questions in the upcoming referendum, and most (62%) plan to vote in all 10 referendum questions.  
 

If Albertans vote to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada, how would you vote?

In the event of an actual referendum to separate from Canada, close to three quarters would vote to stay, and nine in 10 say their vote is definite.  Those most likely to say they would vote to stay include Boomers (80%), University Grads (80%), women (79%) and residents of Edmonton (79%).  

By contrast, those who would vote to leave (14%) are less firm in their vote -  just close to 7 in ten (69%) say their vote is definite. Men (20%), Gen Z (18%) and Gen X (18%). Those outside of the major city centres were more likely to be undecided (12% compared to 7% in Alberta as a whole).
 

When asked about the policy issues Albertans will vote on in the referendum, proof of Canadian citizenship to vote was the most supported by Albertans, (76%) while allowing provinces to opt out of federal programs was the least (41%).

Compared to the rest of Canada, Albertans were slightly more supportive of the policy proposals, but in general, they garnered similar support across the country.  All but the proposal to allow provinces to opt out of federal programmes while receiving equal levels of funding were supported by majorities within and outside of Alberta.
 

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 18 and 22, 2026, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, including 600 Alberta residents and 900 rest of Canada residents. These data were statistically weighted by region, age, gender and education to ensure the sample composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. The precision of Ipsos polls containing online data is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall poll of 1,500 Canadians is accurate to within +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all adult Canadian residents been polled. Questions asked of Albertans only (n=600) have a credibility interval of +/- 4.9 percentage points. Questions asked of Canadians outside Alberta (n=900) have a credibility interval of +/- 4.0 percentage points. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
Chairman, Ipsos Canada
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]
 

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