“Stay” Referendum Vote (70%) Firmly Entrenched Among Albertans

If this referendum were held tomorrow, how would you vote or lean on the following question? 

Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada? 

Ahead of the historic October 19th referendum to determine Alberta’s future, seven in 10 (70%) Albertans say they plan to vote for Alberta to remain a province of Canada. Just under one-quarter (23%) say they plan to vote for the Government of Alberta to hold a binding provincial referendum and 7% are undecided or not planning to vote. These results remain largely unchanged from last month when Albertans were asked the same question, though the percentage of those who would like to separate is higher than results from earlier in the year. 

Support to begin the process to hold a binding referendum is lower in Edmonton (20%) and Calgary (21%) than it is in the rest of Alberta (29%). It is also lower among younger Albertans (17% among 18-34 years vs. 27% among 35-54 years and 25% among 55+ years) and women (19% vs. 27% among men).

Sixty-five percent overall rate their certainty to vote on October 19th at a 9 or 10 out of 10, rising to 73% among those who would like to vote to separate compared to 67% who would like to stay. However, with overall national unity being stronger now than in 2019 – including among Albertans – the results suggest that most Albertans do not believe now is the time to be rethinking their ties to Confederation. 

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between October 13 and 16, 2026, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 801 Albertans aged 18+ was interviewed online. These data were statistically weighted by region, age, gender and education to ensure the sample composition reflects that of the actual population of Alberta according to Census data. The precision of Ipsos polls containing online data is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall poll of 801 Albertans is accurate to within +/- 4.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all adult Alberta residents been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
Chairman, Ipsos Canada
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]
 

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