Canadians' Reaction To The Quebec Referendum

The following are the major highlights to emerge from a National AngusReid/Southam News Poll conducted on November 1st and 2nd among a representative cross-section of 1805 Canadians:

• The Public's Response To The Referendum Outcome
• Canadians' Overall Mood On The National Unity Issue
• Desired Pace On The Unity Front
• The Public's Perspectives On Change

The Public's Response To The Referendum Outcome

Canadians take a mixed view of the outcome of Monday's referendum. Asked how satisfied they were with the narrow "No" victory, one-half (49%) indicated they were very or somewhat satisfied (only 14% very) while the other one-half (48%) said they were somewhat or very dissatisfied with the outcome. Responses were mixed both within Quebec and across the rest of Canada. Among Quebecers, most "Yes" voters were dissatisfied while most "No" voters were satisfied with the outcome. Follow-up questioning on reasons for satisfaction/dissatisfaction with the referendum results shows that those who were pleased tended to simply be happy that the "No" won. Reasons for dissatisfaction were somewhat more diffuse -- many non-Quebecers in this group indicated that the vote was too close for comfort or that the issue has not been resolved, while fully one-half of the dissatisfied in Quebec were disappointed that the "Yes" side had not won.

There is also no clear public consensus on whether the close result was a victory or a defeat for Quebec's independence movement. Nationally, 35 percent characterized the result as a victory for the "Yes" while 40 percent viewed it as a defeat and 21 percent volunteered that it was neither. Looking at the results within Quebec shows that a narrow plurality of 41 percent view the narrow result as a victory for the "Yes" while in English-speaking regions a narrow plurality characterize it as a defeat.

With respect to Prime Minister Chretien's handling of the Quebec referendum and national unity issue, overall, the poll finds 59 percent of Canadians believe he did a good job (only 12% very good) while 40 percent believe he did a poor job (only 14% very poor). Views differ between the two blocs -- in Quebec 58 percent believe the Prime Minister did a poor job on the issue, while outside Quebec 65 percent believe he did a good job on the issue.

Canadians' Overall Mood On The National Unity Issue

Close to one in three (31%) Canadians -- including 47 percent of Quebecers and 26 percent of those living outside of Quebec -- express support for the view that: "It is getting to the point that it would be better in the long run if Quebec were simply to separate from the rest of Canada". A look at the Angus Reid Group's tracking data on this question shows no change outside Quebec since the question was first posed in January of 1989. Within Quebec, at that initial sounding, only 28 percent expressed agreement with this viewpoint but this figure spiked to 40 percent in November of 1989 and up to 53 percent in May of 1990.

The poll finds most English-speaking Canadians "prepared to see some concessions made to keep Quebec in Canada" -- 61 percent chose this perspective compared to 32 percent who said they would "rather see Quebec leave than make any concessions". This suggests a more conciliatory outlook than the even split found the last time the Angus Reid Group asked this question in May of 1994, with the current findings similar to the mood that prevailed in the couple of years prior to that sounding.

At the same time, the poll finds that many Canadians living outside Quebec -- 42 percent -- say they have become "more hardline" toward Quebec over the past year or so compared to 16 percent who indicated they have become "more sympathetic" (41% report no change).

Within Quebec meanwhile, asked how they would vote if another referendum were held tomorrow on the same question -- the "Yes" received 49 percent support among those polled while the "No" is at 42 percent.

What Now? Desired Pace On The Unity Front

Asked what the federal government should now do, a plurality of 39 percent of Canadians surveyed said they would like to see the federal government "head to the bargaining table to try to get an agreement on changing the constitution that all provinces, including Quebec, can agree upon". One in three (32%) opted for seeing the federal government try to accommodate Quebec's concerns through some administrative and political changes, while one in four (27%) said they would like to see the federal government leave these issues alone for a while and move on to something else. The desire for moving to the constitutional negotiating table is most acute in Quebec where 52 percent of those surveyed opted for this course of action. Across English-speaking Canada, views were fairly evenly split across all three options. (Question 4)

Those surveyed were also asked how long the federal government should wait until it begins the process of trying to deal with Canada's constitutional difficulties. Here again, Quebecers are more enthusiastic about seeing the federal government "move immediately" -- 63 percent of Quebecers surveyed opted for immediate action, while in English-speaking Canada a slim plurality of 40 percent said they would "wait a while" against 36 percent who would move immediately and 22 percent who would wait until after the next federal election (an option chosen by only 9 percent of Quebecers.)

Underlining Quebecers' interest in seeing constitutional negotiations take place is the survey finding that almost three-quarters (72%) of Quebecers believe "Quebec should be willing to discuss constitutional matters with the rest of Canada" compared to one in four (26%) who expressed agreement with Lucien Bouchard's statements to the effect that no negotiation should occur until after Quebec has voted "Yes" for sovereignty. Examining these results by Quebecers' referendum preferences shows that "Yes" voters are almost split on this question while "No" voters overwhelmingly favour negotiations.

As to which political leader they would most trust to represent their interests in any future constitutional negotiations between the federal government and the provinces, 35 percent of English-speaking Canadians name Prime Minister Jean Chretien whereas 46 percent of Quebecers choose Bloc Quebecer leader Lucien Bouchard. Only 12 percent of Quebecers name Jean Chretien in response to this question while 9 percent name Jean Charest and 7 percent Daniel Johnson. Jean Charest is also chosen by 7 percent of Canadians living outside Quebec and Reform leader Preston Manning by 8 percent.

Underlining Mr. Bouchard's popularity among Quebecers is the fact that fully 60 percent of those surveyed said they would support Mr. Bouchard assuming the leadership of the Parti Quebecois and the Premier's job, rising to almost nine in ten "Yes" supporters.

The Public's Perspectives On Change

This National Angus Reid/Southam News Poll finds a significant consensus both within and outside Quebec that "it is now time to make some substantial changes to the way Canada works" -- this view was supported by three-quarters (78%) of Quebecers surveyed and by two-thirds (66%) of those in the rest of Canada. Only 29 percent of Canadians -- 21 percent of Quebecers and 32 percent of those living elsewhere -- said they are "more or less satisfied with the way things work now".

With respect to the division of powers, the survey finds similar common ground. Two in three (65%) of all Canadians surveyed said if there are changes made to the constitution they would prefer to see "a substantial reduction in federal powers with these given to all the provinces" -- this is the view of 81 percent of Quebecers surveyed and of 60 percent of Canadians living outside Quebec. Only 22 percent of those surveyed (12% of Quebecers and 25% of other Canadians) opt for the status quo on the division of powers and only 8 percent for an increase in federal powers. Tracking data shows that non-Quebecers have become significantly more supportive of devolution over the past few years -- the Angus Reid Group found a split opinion in 1991.

Survey respondents were also asked for their views on three broad constitutional change proposals:

With respect to "recognition of Quebec as a `distinct society' based on its French language, culture and institutions", the poll finds massive support within Quebec (85%) and slim majority support for the distinct society outside of Quebec -- fifty-two percent. This compares to a split opinion outside Quebec in August of 1992 during the run-up to the referendum on the Charlottetown accord and to the majority opposition that existed before then. When opponents of the distinct society clause were asked if they would support it if they knew that it was the one thing preventing Quebec from signing a constitutional agreement, one in five of those initially opposed moved over to support it. (Question 9A) The poll finds that Quebecers and other Canadians apply the same broad interpretation to the "distinct society" recognition -- just over six in ten of those in both blocs said they believe this "simply acknowledges the cultural and linguistic uniqueness of Quebec" while only one in three Quebecers and other Canadians believe that recognizing the distinct society means "giving Quebec a different status and special advantages that other provinces do not have".

The poll also examined support for transferring to Quebec various powers from the federal government. Again, the poll finds overwhelming support in Quebec (88%). Outside Quebec meanwhile, one-half (50%) of those surveyed expressed opposition to this broad proposal against forty-six percent who were in favour. Importantly, however, when those opposed were asked if they would support such a transfer if all provinces were in line to receive these powers, three-quarters of these opponents move over in favour of a power transfer, leaving only 14 percent opposed to an across the board devolution.

Finally, three-quarters (75%) of Quebecers also support giving Quebec a veto over any constitutional changes that affect its power. This is initially solidly opposed by English-speaking Canadians (79%) -- once again, however, two in three of these opponent move over to support such a veto providing all provinces receive one, leaving only one in four of the total non-Quebec sample opposed.

On the issue of whether or not there should be a Canada-wide referendum on any agreement reached during the upcoming constitutional negotiations, three-quarters (76%) of those outside Quebec express support for this option while Quebecers themselves are divided (46% support, 51% oppose). English-speaking Canadians were equally enthusiastic about holding referendums prior to the Charlottetown referendum in 1992.

Expectations On The National Unity Front

Responses to a question asking how likely they think it is that future negotiations will be successful in getting Quebec to sign the Canadian constitution yield some interesting differences in the two blocs' perspectives. Quebecers themselves are essentially evenly divided on this question -- 46 percent believe it is likely Quebec will sign the constitution while 51 percent think it is unlikely. Among English-speaking Canadians, one in three believe it is very or fairly likely that future negotiations will be successful in getting Quebec to sign whereas 62 percent believe it is not very (38%) or not at all (24%) likely.

As for Canadians' outlook for English-French relations, a plurality (37%) of those surveyed said they expect things to stay more or less the same whereas those remaining were equally likely to expect an improvement (28%) as they were to expect a deterioration (31%). This pattern of response essentially holds true in Quebec and the rest of Canada.

Notwithstanding the events of the past several weeks, Canadians' current overall perspectives on the state of national unity do not differ markedly from the public opinion landscape back in 1991. Currently, one-half of all Canadians (46%) say they believe "Canada is in serious trouble" as far as national unity is concerned -- with this view shared by 63 percent of Quebecers and by 40 percent of English-speaking Canadians. Similar numbers were recorded in Angus Reid soundings taking in 1991 -- although since that time, English-speaking Canadians have become somewhat less likely to take the middle option that national unity has become weaker and somewhat more likely to opt for the characterization that "Canada is as strong today as it ever was" (now 17%, up from 5 %).

Finally, in terms of Canadians' outlook for the future, the blocs' views also differ. The prevailing view in English-speaking Canada (52%) continues to be that "no significant change will take place and we will spend the next five to ten years debating national unity options", only one in four (24%) Quebecers take this view. One in three (36%) English-speaking Canadians believe Canada will survive the current crisis and find an acceptable solution for all, a view shared by the same number (37%) of Quebecers. But as many Quebecers (37%) believe that Quebec will become independent (double the number in 1991), while only 10 percent of non-Quebecers believe this.

This National Angus Reid/Southam News Poll was conducted by telephone on November 1st and 2nd, 1995 among a representative cross-section of 1805 Canadian adults. The actual number of completed interviews in each region was as follows: B.C. -- 302; Alberta -- 301; Manitoba/Saskatchewan -- 201; Ontario -- 401; Quebec -- 400; Atlantic -- 200. These data were statistically weighted to adjust for the disproportionate regional distribution of the sample such that the national results reflect the actual proportional distribution of Canada's population. Statistical weighting was also applied to the age/sex composition of the regional samples so that they reflect the 1991 Census data and to the reported referendum voting behaviour of Quebec respondents. With this national sample of 1805, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ±2.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. For example, the sub-sample of 400 in Quebec provides a margin of error of 1775 percentage points, and the 1400 cases in the rest of Canada provide a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

For further information, contact:

Angus Reid
Chairman & CEO
Angus Reid Group
(604) 257-3200

Darrel Bricker
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(613) 241-5802

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900