The `97 Election: Late Campaign

As the '97 election campaign moves into the final stretch, the Chretien Liberals have lost some ground to the Conservatives, thanks largely to Jean Charest's leadership appeal. The various regional battles are looking increasingly intense -- indeed, the big story of the '97 election may be the dramatic regionalization of federal politics.

These findings emerged from a National Angus Reid /Southam News/CTV News Poll taken among a representative cross-section of 3,220 Canadian voters between May 22nd and 27th, 1997. This national sample includes reliable sub-samples in all major regions of the country.

As things now look, Liberal strategists will not be taking a renewed majority for granted, although it remains within their grasp depending on who the seat splits reward and punish. Outside of Ontario, where the Liberals still look headed for a virtual sweep, they face heavy competition in all other major regions of the country -- especially in B.C. and Alberta which look poised to elect Preston Manning' Reform party to official opposition.

Party Standings

Nationally, this poll shows the Chretien Liberals holding 36 percent of the decided vote. This puts them 6 points back from where they were earlier in the campaign and immediately pre-writ -- and these losses have been recorded in all major regions of the country -- and is 5 points back from their 1993 election day showing. The Charest Conservatives have moved up to 24 percent nationally, up 5 points from earlier in the campaign, and now 8 points up from 1993 -- although their support's broad distribution suggests the Tories may have a hard time converting this support into seats. Preston Manning's Reform party is at 19 percent nationally, up a point from a few weeks ago and on par with their 1993 support thanks to a solid recovery in the West. The New Democrats remain at 11 percent (still 4 points up over 1993). The Bloc Quebecois is at 10 percent nationally (38% in Quebec). (Table 1A) (A total of 9% of those surveyed were undecided/refused or said they would not vote in a federal election when asked the initial vote question -- they were asked a follow-up "leaning" question which has been included in the calculation of the vote figures.)

With voting day less than a week away, the "battle for the regions" looks as follows: (Table 1B)

  • In B.C., Reform remains out in front with 40 percent of the decided vote, against the Liberals' 29 percent. This is a 4 point boost for Reform in B.C. since the 1993 election and puts the Liberals a single point up from that contest but down 5 points from early campaign and down 12 points from immediately pre-writ. The NDP are at 17 percent in B.C. and the Conservatives are at 11 percent (making B.C. by far the Tories' weakest region -- indeed, they have not quite recovered to 1993 levels here).
  • In Alberta, Reform is improving its lead and now holds 49 percent of the vote -- this is almost at 1993 levels and way up from pre-writ. The Liberals have slipped down to 24 percent ere, also on par with 1993 but well back from pre-writ and earlier in the campaign. The Conservatives are at 19 percent in Alberta and the NDP at 7 percent.
  • In Manitoba/Saskatchewan, the contest looks to be more competitive. The Liberals are down at 28 percent in this poll -- below recent soundings and 11 points off 1993. This poll finds all opposition parties have picked up in this region since 1993 -- Reform is at 29 percent (up 5), the NDP are at 24 percent (up 3) and the Tories are at 17 percent (up 5).
  • Ontario, which will send 101 MPs to the next Parliament, is still solid Liberal turf. This latest poll shows them at 48 percent here now, 5 points off their 53 percent sweep in 1993. The Conservatives are at 23 percent of the decided Ontario vote, against 18 percent for Reform (still 2 points off 1993) and 11 percent for the NDP.
  • Quebec continues to show volatility. This latest poll shows the Bloc Quebecois under Gilles Duceppe holding 38 percent of the decided Quebec vote, while Charest's Conservatives have jumped to 31 percent, pushing the Liberals back to 29 percent. Compared to the 1993 vote in Quebec, the Bloc is down 11 points, the Liberals are down 4 points, and the Conservatives are now up fully 17 points (from only 14% to their current 31%).
  • The Liberals have also slipped across the Atlantic region -- they are now back at 33 percent, while the Conservatives are up at 39 percent, the NDP are up at 23 percent and Reform is back at 5 percent. This is quite a change from how Liberal the Atlantic looked from the 1993 election (they took 57%) through to earlier in this campaign (40%) (Table 1B)
  • This poll allows for sub-region break-outs in the larger provinces. (The interested reader is invited to refer to Table 1C).
  • Finally, there are interesting variations in the demographic composition of the parties' support bases. (Table 1D) Overall:
    • Liberal support is higher among women; Liberals are younger in B.C. and in Ontario, but definitely older in Quebec.
    • Conservative support is younger in Alberta and Quebec.
    • Reform supporters are more likely to be men, and they tend to be older than other voters (especially in the West).
    • The BQ's support is higher among younger Quebecers.
    • The biggest skew in the NDP's support is their relatively higher support among less affluent voters.

Vote Diagnostics

Switching/Retention/Commitment/Residual Support

This Angus Reid/Southam News/CTV News Election Poll included some key "diagnostics" to further examine the current political landscape:

  • A "switching analysis" confirms that it is the Liberals who have been losing ground in this campaign. A total of 17 percent of voters polled said they had changed their mind during this campaign and almost half (43%) of this group -- which works out to 7 percent of the entire electorate -- said they had moved away from the Liberals. Then lapsed Liberals tended to move over to the Conservatives (half said they did), and they tended to highlight leadership (four in ten) and policy differences (one in four) as their main reasons for switching. (Table 2)
  • A look at where the parties' 1993 supporters are now -- retention rate analysis -- nicely illustrates the shifts in voters' allegiances since that election. For the Liberals, 61 percent of their 1993 supporters are still with them but they are losing one in five (18%) to the Tories and one in ten (10%) to Reform. The Tories' somewhat modest retention rate (58%) is offset by their success at attracting these 1993 Liberals, and a number of 1993 Reformers (14%) and Blocquistes (20%) as well. These latter two parties have the highest retention rates (holding on to three-quarters of their 1993 supporters). (Table 3A)
  • A look at the current data on the commitment of the parties' support bases suggests a possible advantage for the Reform party in terms of their supporters' stated commitment to their party choice and the likelihood of their supporters actually going to the polls to vote. (Table 3B) Indeed, a special analysis of the parties' support among likely voters -- certain they will vote in 1997 and did vote in 1993 -- shows the Reform party up at 23 percent support, 4 points up over their showing among the entire electorate while other parties stand still or slip a point.
  • But the polling data regarding residual support -- decided voters' second-choice party -- continues to show the Conservatives maintaining a distinct advantage, one they held earlier in the campaign and which has already manifested itself in their 6 point post-writ surge. Across all decided voters, the Tories are named by 30 percent as their second choice party, followed by the Liberals at 22 percent, the NDP at 14 percent and Reform at only 9 percent. The Conservatives are well placed to pick up disaffected Liberals (49% of Liberals choose the Conservatives as their second-choice party, versus 19% for the NDP, and Reform). Current Reform party supporters also tend to opt for the Tories (35%). Conservatives, for their part, remain far more likely to name the Liberals as their second choice than they are to name Reform or the New Democrats (43% versus 16% for both). (Table 3C)

Who Has Momentum?

  • The Charest Conservatives started off the 1997 campaign scoring well on the key "momentum" measure, and they continue to impress a lot more voters than they are turning off -- 49 percent versus 13 percent respectively for a "momentum score" of +36 in this final week (as high as +49 in Quebec). (Table 4)
  • The Liberals' "momentum" numbers remain decidedly negative, and have proven to be predictive of their direction in this 1997 campaign. Now, 30 percent of voters continue to say their opinion of Jean Chretien and the Liberal party has worsened during the campaign compared to only 11 percent who say their opinion has improved (58% report no change). Their "momentum score" (simply the percentage who say their opinion has improved minus the percentage who say it has worsened) is -19. The Liberals have scored negatively on this key measure since pre-writ and they continue to do so across the country.
  • The Bloc Quebecois and Gilles Duceppe also continue to turn off a lot of Quebec voters: they score a -34 among Quebec voters in this latter week of the campaign. This is a further deterioration from the -4 recorded pre-writ, and the -26 recorded earlier in the campaign.
  • Preston Manning and the Reform party are now turning off more voters than they are impressing: their momentum score is -17 (-38 in Quebec), compared to -6 earlier in the campaign.
  • Finally, Alexa McDonough and the New Democratic Party have a +9 score, +32 in the Atlantic and +20 in Manitoba/Saskatchewan.

Do the Liberals Deserve Re-Election?

On the key ballot question as to whether or not the Liberals deserve re-election, this latest poll finds the Canadian electorate remains evenly divided: 47 percent said the Liberals do "deserve to be re-elected because, all things considered, they've been doing a good job of running the country" versus 50 percent who said "the Liberals don't deserve to be re-elected and it is now time to give one of the other parties a chance to run the country". While this overall finding is clearly good news for the Liberals, the fact that there is majority disaffection in every region but Ontario is not. (Table 5)

Majority or Minority Preferred?

Canadians would still prefer to elect a majority rather than minority government on June 2nd: this view was endorsed by a margin of 58 percent to 40 percent in this late campaign poll. This is the preference of most Liberals (72%) and Tories (60%), but supporters of the other parties are split. (Table 6)

The Leaders

Jean Charest has been very successful in the leadership sweepstakes in this campaign and is a major asset for his party.

  • Jean Charest now leads Jean Chretien on the "best Prime Minister" question by a margin of 36 percent to 32 percent. Mr. Chretien had a 3 point edge earlier in the campaign and an 8 point lead pre-writ. Now, 11 percent name Preston Manning, 7 percent Alexa McDonough and 2 percent Gilles Duceppe. (Table 7A)
  • Regionally, Mr. Charest has moved up to tie Mr. Chretien across the West (Mr. Manning joins in a 3-way tie in Alberta), he has edged past him in the Atlantic, and remains miles ahead in Quebec for "best Prime Minister" (52% versus 21%). Only in Ontario is Mr. Chretien maintaining his solid lead. (Table 7A)
  • Leaders' campaign performance ratings also give Jean Charest the highest marks: (Table 7B)
    • Voters approve of Mr. Charest's campaign by a margin of 2 to 1 (59% versus 30%), with positive marks in all major regions.
    • Mr. Chretien also gets a positive overall appraisal - 52 percent versus 42 percent; but he gets a split opinion or worse in B.C., Alberta and Quebec.
    • Preston Manning gets an overall "thumbs down": 58 percent disapprove versus 31 percent approve. This majority disapproval is evident in all regions east of Alberta (73% in Quebec), but he does a lot better in his stronghold.
    • Most Quebec voters (57%) disapprove of BQ leader Gilles Duceppe's campaign performance.
    • Alexa McDonough gets a split verdict nationally (with higher uncertainty too), but does better in the Atlantic and Manitoba/Saskatchewan.

Motivations for Party Support

The poll results regarding voters' main motivations for their party choice underline the asset the Conservatives have in Jean Charest: (Table 8)

  • Asked for the main reason they are supporting the Conservatives, 25 percent of their supporters single out leadership - 18 percent specifically highlight Jean Charest. This compares to fewer than one in ten supporters of other parties who say leadership is their main motivation.
  • For the Liberals, conspicuous relative strengths include their progress on the deficit (cited by 15% of their supporters) and their overall record (14%).
  • For NDP'ers, many single out the party's position on jobs (10%), social programs (13%) and healthcare (7%).
  • Reformers' motivations appear somewhat more diffuse, with supporters highlighting a range of policies and sentiments such as "it is time for a change" (8%).
  • Finally, most BQ'ers highlight the party's vision of Quebec's political future (48%) and its representation of Quebec (16%) as their reasons for backing the Bloc.

The Election Issues and the Parties' Positioning

As for the election issues, Canadians remain very much focused on "jobs, jobs, jobs", but the national unity issue has gained prominence. Importantly, the parties' positioning on the key issues has also shifted somewhat over the course of the campaign. (Tables 9 and 10)

Asked what they see as the most important issues in the coming federal election campaign, the voters surveyed gave the following responses:

  • Jobs was mentioned as a main election issue by fully 62 percent of voters polled, 36 percent named jobs first, triple the first mentions recorded for any other issue.

    Critically, while the Liberals still have the edge on this issue, they have lost some ground to the Tories since earlier in the campaign - a 14 point Liberal lead on "create an economic climate for job creation" has narrowed to 5 points nationally - and, in fact, the Liberals have a clear lead on jobs only in Ontario. (Table 10A) Those voters who single out jobs as the key issue still name the Liberals as the best party (33% versus 23% for the PCs). (Table 9B)
  • National unity/Quebec's future was cited as a main campaign issue by 31 percent of voters polled, up from 18 percent earlier in the campaign. Unaided concern about the issue is highest in Quebec (42%) and in Alberta (34%). One in ten (11%) of voters polled named the unity debate as the single most important issue.

    Again, in terms of the parties' positioning the Liberals still maintain a lead in the ROC on this key issue, but they are now 8 points ahead of the Charest PCs (39% versus 31%) compared to a 24 point spread earlier in the campaign. (Table 10C)

    Unity and regional tensions are definitely elements in this 1997 campaign. The poll's assessment of the parties' positioning asked voters surveyed which of the parties they feel would do the best job "representing the interests of their province in Ottawa". Here we see among the most dramatic regional variations. Virtually half of voters in B.C. and Alberta choose Preston Mannings' Reform party whereas half of Quebecers choose Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois. Voters are more divided in Manitoba/Saskatchewan (leaning towards Reform) and in the Atlantic region (leaning towards the Conservatives). In Ontario, a plurality of four in ten voters choose the Chretien Liberals as best being able to represent that region's interests in Ottawa. (Table 10C)
  • Healthcare is singled out by 29 percent of voters as an important campaign issue, unchanged from earlier in the campaign. Healthcare is of greatest concern to voters in the Atlantic region and on the Prairies.

    As for which parties would "protect the quality and accessibility of our healthcare services", these latest poll results show almost a 3-way race between the Liberals (27%) the PCs (22%) and the NDP (21%), narrower than the Liberals' lead earlier in the campaign. As with so many other issues, there are profound regional variations in the parties' positioning on this issue - in fact, the New Democrats have the edge in B.C. and Manitoba/Saskatchewan, Reform has the edge in Alberta, the Liberals in Ontario, and the PCs in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. (Table 10B)
  • The deficit/debt was singled out by one in five (21%) voters as a key issue in this campaign. As noted earlier when looking at voters' motivations for their party support, this is and remains a key Liberal strength among those who single out the deficit as a critical issue in this campaign and among the electorate as a whole (fully 45% chose the Liberals and Jean Chretien as the best team to handle this problem or the deficit/debt issue).
  • Taxes were highlighted by 16 percent of voters surveyed, and 5 percent singled this out as the single most important campaign issue. Among this latter group, Reform has the advantage as the party best equipped to deal with taxation. (Table 9B) But among voters as a whole, the PCs and Charest have the lead with 31 percent of voters singling them out against 20 percent for Manning and Reform and 19 percent for Chretien and the Liberals. Reform does have the dominant positioning across western Canada on this issue whereas the PCs are best positioned in Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic regions.
  • The economy in general was highlighted by 15 percent of respondents as a central issue in this campaign. Again, this remains an important Liberal strongsuit with 42 percent of voters surveyed singling them out as the party best able to handle this, more than twice the number singling out the Conservatives (20%) or Reform (16%). Further, the Liberals have solid positioning in all regions of the country - indeed, a lead everywhere but Alberta.

This Angus Reid/Southam News/CTV News Poll included a detailed examination of the parties' competitive positioning on a number of other specific fronts, covering: economic issues, social issues and programs, unity/regional representation, and "values and character issues". These results are presented in detail in Tables 10A through 10D appended, showing the parties' national positioning as well as the important regional variations.

Other Issues

A few other issues associated with this election campaign were assessed in this Angus Reid Poll - interested readers are invited to examine the attached set of summary tables.

Survey Methodology

This National Angus Reid/Southam News/CTV News Poll was conducted by telephone between May 22nd and 27th, 1997 among a representative cross-section of 3,220 Canadian adults.

The actual number of completed interviews in each region was as follows: B.C. - 701; Alberta - 704; Manitoba/Saskatchewan - 204; Ontario - 595 (roughly 200 in Metro Toronto and 400 across the rest of the province); Quebec - 810; Atlantic - 206. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional representation and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1991 and 1996 Census data, and were also adjusted for respondents' past voting behaviour.

With the national sample of 3,220, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the national results are within ±2.25 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. Regionally, the B.C. and Alberta samples of 700 have a margin of error of ±3.5 percent; the Prairies ±7.0 percent; Ontario ±4.0 percent; Quebec ±3.5 percent; and the Atlantic region ±7.0 percent.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Angus Reid
Chairman & CEO
Angus Reid Group
(604) 257-3200

Darrell Bricker
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(613) 241-5802

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900

Bob Richardson
Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900

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