Federal Election Poll November 2, 2000

Liberals are Ahead on Heathcare (30%) While the Alliance is Ahead on "Reducing Taxes" (37%)

Toronto, Ontario -- The latest CTV/Globe and Mail/Ipsos-Reid federal election survey shows that the race continues to tightened. While support for the Liberals (42%) has slipped three points, support for the Alliance has inched up one point (to 29%) since late October. However, despite heavy campaigning in Ontario by the Alliance, the Liberals have reinforced their led in Canada's most populous province and home to 103 of the seats in the House of Commons. In this province, Liberal support (53%) has increased two points while support for the Alliance (24%) has dropped four points.

Results for the head to head simulation, first released on October 1st, shows that in a two-party race, support for the Liberals (55%) and the Alliance (37%) is holding steady.

The Alliance continues to make gains in Western Canada. They are now leading in Manitoba/Saskatchewan (41% vs. 32% for the Liberals) and have increased their lead in B.C. to 18 points (34% vs. 52% for the Liberals). In Alberta, the Alliance now enjoys a sizeable 38 point lead (61% vs. 23% for the Liberals). The NDP garners 20% support in Manitoba and Saskatchewan but only 7% in BC and 8% in Alberta. The Conservatives, are polling at 5% in BC and Saskatchewan/Manitoba and 7% in Alberta.

In Quebec, the Liberals (38%) have fallen five points and are now running second to the Bloc (43%) which has picked up six points over the past week. Meanwhile the Alliance has slipped one point to 10%, the Conservatives have slipped four points to 2% and the NDP is up slightly (2 points) to 6%.

The Liberals (50%) continue to lead the Atlantic provinces by a wide margin but support for the Conservatives (24%) has increased five points over the last week and have reinforced their lead over the Alliance (15%) as the second place-party. Meanwhile support for the NDP (10%) has dipped four points in the province.

Another important indicator of the current dynamics of the campaign is what we refer to as "momentum". In other words, has your opinion of a particular leader and party improved or worsened over the last few weeks. On this level, the Liberals and Chrйtien continue to have negative momentum while Stockwell Day and the Alliance have maintained their positive momentum. The percentage of respondents who say their opinion of Jean Chrйtien and the Liberals has "worsened" (35%) is 27 points higher than the percentage who say their opinion of him has improved (8%). In contrast, the Alliance and their leader Stockwell Day are benefiting from positive momentum, with the percentage who say their opinion has "improved" (31%) 13 points higher than the percentage who say their opinion has "worsened" (18%).

Finally, the percentage of Canadians who say the Liberals "deserve to be re-elected" (49%) has dropped 3 points and is at its lowest level since March 1997. 48% of Canadians now say the Liberals "do not deserve to be re-elected".

The Liberals are ahead of the Alliance on many key issues including healthcare where 30% of Canadians say the Liberals would "do the best job in this area if elected" compared with 23% for the NDP and 20% for the Alliance. However, when it comes to "reducing taxes" the Alliance (37%) edges out the Liberals (32%) as the party that Canadians say would do the best job.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between October 27th and November 1st, 2000. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 2,500 adult Canadians. The results are accurate to within 177 2.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire Canadian population been surveyed. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. The data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

Liberals (42%) Continue to Lose Momentum as Race Tightens (Alliance: 29%, NDP, 9%, PC: 8%)

As we close-out the second week of campaigning there is evidence that the race is beginning to tighten up. The Liberals (42%, down 3 points) continue to lose momentum while the Alliance (29% up one point) edges up. The NDP (9%) has also edged up one point and despite gains in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have stalled at 8%. Less than one in ten (7%) Canadians remain undecided.

• Support for the Liberals is highest among younger Canadians (49%) and lower among middle aged (42%) and older (35%) Canadians
• In contrast older Canadians (35%) are more likely to support the Alliance as opposed to middle aged (29%) or younger Canadians (21%).
• Women are much more likely to support the Liberals (46%) as opposed to the Alliance (24%) while support among men is more evenly divided between the Liberals (38%) and the Alliance (33%).

In a simulated head to head battle between the Liberals (55%) continue to beat out the Alliance (37%) by a wide margin. Regionally, the Alliance wins the head to head contest in all areas west of Manitoba while the Liberals win out in Manitoba and eastward.

Looking at momentum (the difference between the percentage who say their opinion has "improved" minus the percentage who say their opinion has "worsened") for the parties and their leaders shows that Jean Chrйtien and the Liberals continue to have negative momentum (8% "improved", 35% "worsened", net -27) while Stockwell Day and the Allliance continue to have positive momentum (31% "improved", 18% "worsened", net +13). Alexa McDonough and the NDP (10% "improved", 8% "worsened", net +2) and Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc (Quebec only: 19% "improved", 17% "worsened", net +2) are both holding relatively steady. Joe Clark and the Conservatives (20% "improved", 16% "worsened", net +4) are trending positive.

Overall, 49% of Canadians say the Liberals deserve to be re-elected (down 3 points) while 48% say they do not (up 3 points).

However, Liberals (53%) Have Re-enforced their Strength In Ontario over the Alliance (24%)

While the overall race has tightened, the battle in the regions has become more polarized with the Alliance consolidating their support in the West and the Liberals consolidating their support in the East. In Ontario, as a result of a 2 point increase in support for the Liberals (53%) and a four point decline in support for the Alliance (24%), the Liberals' lead has now widened to 29 points. The PCs and the NDP are holding stead at 11% and 9% respectively.

Quebec, with the second largest number of seats in the House of Commons, has seen support shift towards the Bloc Quйbecois (43% - up 6 points) and away from the Liberals (38% - down 5 points) giving the Bloc a 5 point lead in province. Alliance support in the province is stalled at 10% while the NDP is up slightly (2 points) to 6%. Meanwhile support for the PCs has all but evaporated (2% - down 4 points).

In British Columbia, the Alliance continues to hammer away at the Liberals. Support for the Alliance has risen 5 points (52%) while support for the Liberals (34%) has dropped four points leaving the Alliance with an 18 point lead. Support for the NDP in BC remains unchanged at 7% and support for the PCs is unchanged at 5%.

Alberta continues to be the epicentre of Alliance support (61%). Support for the Alliance is up two points in the province while Liberal support has fallen 7 points to 23% (their lowest point since October 1997). In all, support for the Liberals has fallen 14 points in the province since early October. While the Alliance is far in front, the NDP (8% - up 5 points) is the party which has made the biggest gain in the province since the last poll. The PCs are steady at 7%.

In Saskatchewan, support for the Alliance is at 50% while the Liberals capture the support of just over a quarter (27%) of residents. In the province which gave Canada medicare, the NDP remains competitive at 22% support. Support for the Conservatives is almost non-existent at 1%.

Manitoba marks the turning point for the East/West divide in support. The Liberals (37%) have a slight edge over the Alliance (33%), with the NDP not too far behind at 19%. The Conservatives capture 8%.

In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals are leading with the PCs firmly in second place. Support in individual provinces break down as follows:

New Brunswick:

• Liberals - 58%
• Alliance - 19%
• PC - 17%
• NDP - 4%

Nova Scotia:

• Liberals - 44%
• PC - 27%
• NDP - 15%
• Alliance - 12%

PEI (NOTE: small sample size n=50)

• Liberals - 48%
• PC - 28%
• Alliance - 14%
• NDP - 8%

Newfoundland:

• Liberals - 49%
• PC - 26%
• Alliance - 13%
• NDP - 11%

Liberals are Ahead on Heathcare (30%) While the Alliance is Ahead on "Reducing Taxes" (37%)

On a many of specific issues tested, the Liberals beat out the other major parties in terms of which one would "do the best job if elected" but the results vary considerably by province, with the Alliance strong in the West and the Liberals strong in the East. The only issue on which the Liberals are ahead of the Alliance in every province is in "keeping Canada together". A full majority (58%) of Canadians say the Liberals would do the best job in this area compared with only 16% for the Alliance. On the top issue of healthcare, Canadians say the Liberals (30%) would do the best job "protecting the quality and accessibility of our healthcare services". The NDP (23%) is in second place on this issue followed by the Alliance (20%). On other major issue of the campaign: tax reduction, the Alliance (37%) beats out the Liberals (32%) in terms who would do the best job. The Alliance is also ahead of the Liberals on "reforming our justice system to it is tougher on criminals (42% vs,. 21%) and on "spending taxpayers money wisely" (30% vs. 27%). The two front-running parties are neck and neck on "providing honest and trustworthy government" (26% for the Liberals, 26% for the Alliance).

The Liberals lead by a large margin on "managing the economy" (44% Liberals, 26% Alliance) and by smaller margins on "has the best plan for allocating our budget surplus" (34% Liberals, 28% Alliance) and "providing government that is closest to my own values" (33% Liberals, 27% Alliance).

The NDP (28%) emerges as the party which Canadians feel would do the best job at "protecting our environment".

Finally, when it comes to "representing the interests of my province in Ottawa" the Alliance wins in BC (61%), Alberta (73%), Saskatchewan (51%) and Manitoba (34%) while the Liberals win out in Ontario (44%), New Brunswick (43%), PEI (47%) and Newfoundland (53%). The NDP (33%) emerges as the party which Nova Scotains believe will best represent their interests. Meanwhile in Quйbec, the Bloc (59%) is rated as the party which will best represent that province's interests.

In terms of who would provide the best overall government, 42% of Canadians say the Liberals compared with 27% who say the Alliance.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President and COO
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900