Seven in Ten (71%) Say United States Not Justified In Refusing Contracts to Canada
Further, with Saddam Hussein's capture, it appears as though Canadians are not looking to alter the level of support currently being provided to the United States in Iraq. Just over half (55%) of Canadians say they would like to see our current level of support maintained, one in three (26%) believe we should increase support, and 14% think Canada should pull out our existing support.
Canadians are also essentially split over whether the United States is "heading in the right direction" (45%) or if they off on the "wrong track" (43%). But, Canadians believe Prime Minister Paul Martin will likely bring a brighter future for Canada-U.S. relations - six in ten (60%) believe that with Paul Martin as the new Prime Minister of Canada, relations between his government and the Bush administration will improve in the months ahead.
These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail poll conducted between December 16 and December 18, 2003. The telephone survey is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,055 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.
United States Not Justified In Refusing Contracts...
A strong majority (71%) of Canadians believe that the United States is not justified in it position of refusing contracts to Canada and the other countries that did not support them in the war. Three in ten (26%) are of the opposite opinion, believing that the United States has justification for imposing such a decision. A very small portion (3%) say that they "don't know."
- Residents of Quebec appear to be the most adamant that the United States is not justified in making this decision with 80% of them offering this opinion, British Columbians follow tightly at 77%, with the next closest being Atlantic Canadians at 69%. Albertans (64%) and residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (65%) are the least likely to believe the United States is not justified in making this decision.
- Women are significantly more likely than men to believe that the United States is not justified in its position (77% Women versus 65% Men).
When asked, in light of the recent capture of Saddam Hussein, whether Canada should either now give the United States a lot of help in Iraq, maintain the current level of support we are giving them, or pull out our support all together, more than half (55%) stated that we should maintain our current level of support. Roughly a quarter (26%) of the population thinks that we should do "a lot more" now, whereas 14% believe we should pull out altogether of Iraq. Two percent answer that it "depends," and four percent indicated that they "don't know."
- Quebecers are significantly more likely than all other regions of Canada to believe that Canada should "pull out all together" any support we are currently providing the United States in Iraq (26%). In contrast, Albertans (38%) are the most likely to feel that we should be providing a lot of help to the United States in Iraq, followed by Atlantic Canadians (32%), then Ontarians (29%).
- As their level of education rises respondents are more likely to believe that Canada should maintain its current level of support in Iraq (46% Less than High School, 54% High School, 56% Some Post Secondary/College Diploma, 58% University).
- Low-income earners are more likely than higher income earners to believe that Canada should pull out our existing support in Iraq (23% for those earning $30K or less, 13% for those earning between $30-60K, and 7% for those earning more than $60K).
Canadians are essentially split in opinion when considering if things in the United States are heading in the right direction or if they are heading off on the wrong track. Just under half (45%) of Canadians believe that the United States is heading in the right direction, while an equal portion (43%) say that they are heading on the wrong track. One in ten (12%) respondents answer that they "don't know."
- Ontarians are the most likely to believe that the United States is heading in the right direction (50%), followed by Albertans (49%), and Atlantic Canadians (47%). In contrast, Quebecers (49%) are the most apt to believe that the United States is headed in the wrong direction, with British Columbians (48%) trailing closely.
- Those with a University degree are significantly more likely than all others to believe that things in the United States are heading in the wrong direction (33% Less than High School, 43% High School, 39% Some Post Secondary/College Diploma, 52% University).
Overall, it seems as though Canadians are optimistic about Paul Martin's government's relationship with United States government. Six in ten (60%) state that they expect relations between his government and the Bush administration to improve in the months ahead. While three in ten (27%) believe it will stay the same. A very small (6%) portion believes that this relationship will deteriorate, and 7% answer that they "don't know."
- Atlantic Canadians (72%) and residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (71%) are the most apt to believe that relations between the two governments will improve, while Quebecers (47%) are the least likely to feel the relationship will improve.
- Older Canadians are significantly more likely than middle aged or younger Canadians to believe that relations will improve (70% for Canadians aged 55 and over, 56% aged 35-54, and 55% aged 18-34).
- Men are significantly more prone than women to say that the relationship will improve (64% men versus 55% women).
- Those with a University education are significantly more likely than those with lower levels of education to believe that relations between Mr. Martin's government and the Bush administration will improve (56% Less than High School, 58% High School, 56% Some Post Secondary/College Diploma, 67% University).
- As level of income rises the propensity to believe that relations with the United States will improve rises with it (52% for those earning $30K or less, 60% for those earning between $30-60K, and 65% for those earning more than $60K).
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For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
