Poll Finds Trudeau (32%, -2) Narrowly Remains Best Choice for Prime Minister, over O’Toole (29%, unchanged) and Singh (25%, -4)

Toronto, ON, September 16, 2021 — Heading into the final days of the campaign, a new Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News reveals that Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau narrowly remains the best choice for Prime Minister according to Canadians. His lead over Erin O’Toole has eroded to just three points, while at the start of the campaign it was 14 points.

Trudeau Remains Best Candidate for PM, But Lead over O’Toole Shrinks

Despite continued decreases since the start of the campaign, Canadians still feel that Justin Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister of Canada (32%, -2 since last week), but only marginally so. Perceptions of Erin O’Toole have remained stable (29%, unchanged), but belief that Jagmeet Singh would make the best leader of Canada has experienced a decrease (25%, -4). Fewer Canadians see Annamie Paul (4%, unchanged) and Yves-François Blanchet (5% +1, 23% in Quebec, +7) as the best candidate for Prime Minster of Canada. 

Based on current Ipsos polling data, Trudeau and Singh continue to poll on par or ahead of the overall vote intention for their respective parties (32% of Canadians say they intend to vote for the Liberal party, and 32% of Canadians say Trudeau is the best fit to be the Prime Minister; 21% of Canadians intend to vote for the NDP, and 25% of Canadians say Singh is the best fit to be the Prime Minister). O’Toole and Blanchet continue to trail their parties.

Just in time for election day, Trudeau has regained confidence among Ontarians for the best candidate for Prime Minister (35%, +2), ahead of O’Toole (31%) and Singh (26%). Trudeau remains the preferred candidate in Quebec (36%), ahead of Yves-François Blanchet (23%), and in Atlantic Canada (35%). The Prairie provinces remain skeptical of Trudeau’s leadership (16%, -11 AB, 21%, +6 SK/MB), favouring O’Toole as the best fit for Prime Minister (43%, unchanged AB, 40%, -3 SK/MB). Younger voters remain more likely to support Singh, with Trudeau having a slight edge over O’Toole among those aged 35+.

Which Federal Party Leader Would Make the Best Prime Minister? By Region

Which Federal Party Leader Would Make the Best Prime Minister? By Age

Trudeau Continues to Lead on All Negative Traits

Skepticism persists around the federal party leaders and their role in the future of Canada, with four in ten (41%, +1) Canadians feeling that none of the leaders will keep their election promises, and a third (34%, +1) who feel that none of the candidates will make things more affordable, a key policy issue of the campaign. The pessimism that surrounds Canadians could lead to lower turnout rates at the polling booths, which was already a possibility due to a pandemic-election. 

With less than a week to go until election day, Trudeau remains the leader who Canadians feel will best represent the country on the world stage (30%, unchanged), is best to manage Canada during tough economic times (28%, +1), and has the right temperament and maturity to be the Prime Minister (27%, -1).

However, Trudeau continues to lead on the negative traits, including that 43% (-3) of Canadians feel Trudeau will say anything to get elected, and 36% (unchanged) feel he has a hidden agenda, a trait which is typically attributed to the Conservative leader of the day. Only one in five (20%, -2) feel he is a leader they can most trust, and a third think he is in over his head (33%, -1), the highest among all the candidates.

Although support for the NDP has cooled off ahead of election day, Singh remains the leader for nearly all positive traits, more than Trudeau and O’Toole. Notably, O’Toole has surpassed Singh for the top candidate who would spend taxpayers’ money wisely (22%, unchanged vs 20%, -2 Singh).

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About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 10 and 13, on behalf of Global News.  For this survey, a sample of n = 2,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n = 1,501 was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. A sample of n = 500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed by live-interview telephone interviewers by landline and cellphone, using random-digit dialing. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

© 2021, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action. Detailed tabular data tables can be found here: https://ipsosintelligence.ca/canadiancontext/

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

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