Only Four in Ten (39%) `Approve' NDP/Liberal Coalition
to Block Conservative Majority

Toronto, ON - Amid remarks from NDP Leader Jack Layton that he might `entertain' joining with the Liberals in a coalition government to prevent the Harper Conservatives from forming a majority government, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global National finds that only four in ten (39%) Canadians would `approve' (13% strongly/26% somewhat) of this action.

In fact, nearly one half (45%) disapproves (30% strongly/15% somewhat) of this course of action. Nearly two in ten (16%) are not sure what to think about this proposition.

Even if the Liberals and NDP did form a coalition government, more Canadians would prefer that Jack Layton act as Prime Minister with Stephane Dion as his deputy PM (29%) than prefer Dion as Prime Minister with Layton as his deputy PM (22%). However, one half (49%) of Canadians would choose `neither' to lead this coalition.

• Atlantic Canadians (48%) are most approving of the idea of a coalition government between the NDP and Liberals, followed by those living in Quebec (46%), Ontario (40%), British Columbia (33%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (30%), and Alberta (24%).
• Conversely, two thirds (64%) of Albertans disapprove, while fewer Canadians living in British Columbia (54%), Ontario (45%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (44%), Quebec (36%) and Atlantic Canada (34%) say the same.
• Despite NDP Leader Jack Layton suggesting that he would entertain the idea of a coalition government, more Liberal supporters (71%) than NDP supporters (60%) approve of this musing.

Appetite for a Conservative Majority...

Thinking about the possibility that Stephen Harper and the Conservatives could win a majority following the election on October 14, four in ten (38%) Canadians (up 1 point) say that they would be `satisfied' (19% very/20% somewhat) with this outcome. A slim majority (51%) of Canadians, though, would be `dissatisfied' (35% very/15% somewhat) if this were to happen, up 2 points since last week. One in ten (11%) do not know what to think of this situation (down 3 points).

Satisfaction with this scenario, much like vote support, varies with key demographics:

• Albertans (75%) are most likely to say that they'd be satisfied with this outcome, followed by those living in British Columbia (50%), Ontario (38%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (31%), Quebec (25%) and Atlantic Canada (24%).
• Older Canadians (46%) are much more likely than middle-aged (39%) or younger Canadians (29%) to be satisfied with this scenario.
• Men (41%) are slightly more likely than women (36%) to be satisfied if the Conservatives were to win a majority.

Strategic Voting...

Four in ten (37%) Canadians (up 2 points) say that they would consider voting for a political party just to stop the Conservatives from forming a majority government. A majority (51%) would not consider this tactic (unchanged), while 12% say they don't knew whether or not they'd consider this, down 2 points.

In terms of which party they would vote for in order to stop the Conservatives from forming a majority government, among those who indicated that they would consider this tactic, nearly one half (44%) says they'd vote Liberal, while one quarter (26%) would vote for the NDP. One in ten (12%) would choose to park their vote with the Bloc (36% in Quebec), and 14% would vote for the Greens to stop the Tories. Three percent (3%) don't know.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global from September 23 to September 25, 2008. This online survey of 1092 Canadian adults was conducted via the Ipsos I-Say Online Panel, Ipsos Reid's national online panel. The results are based on a sample where quota sampling and weighting are employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. Quota samples with weighting from the Ipsos online panel provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample. An unweighted probability sample of this size, with a 100% response rate, would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire adult population in Canada been polled.

For more election commentary, please visit our blog at: http://election.globaltv.com/blogs.aspx

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

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Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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