As The Ontario Election Draws Near, The GTA Moves Red While The Rest Of Ontario Moves Blue

Toronto, ON - As the Ontario provincial election to be held in October draws near, the Liberals and the PCs are moving in lockstep, province-wide, with the results of a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television finding that the Liberals under Dalton McGuinty have the support of 40% of Ontarians, while John Tory's Progressive Conservatives are in close striking distance with the support of 37% of Ontarians. Since Ipsos Reid's last poll released in June of 2007, both the Grits and the Tories have only managed to increase their support by 1% point each province-wide, despite stepping up their pre-election efforts.

Focusing specifically on the GTA, however, yields different results. Within the GTA, the Liberals have moved from 38% in June of this year to 44% support in August, while the Tories have dipped from 39% support in the GTA in June to 34% currently. This represents a 10% point spread between the Liberals (44%) and Progressive Conservatives (34%) in the GTA.

In the rest of Ontario, though, the Tories are pulling slightly ahead of the Liberals. The PCs have moved from 34% support in June to 39% support currently, while the Liberals have dipped slightly from 39% to 37% support. The New Democratic Party under Howard Hampton has the support of 17% of Ontarians, while support for the Green Party under Frank de Jong is receiving the support of 6% of decided voters. Since June, the NDP is holding steady, while the Green Party has dropped 1% point.

A majority of Ontarians (52%) agree that it is `time for another provincial party to take over' in Toronto, while four in ten (40%) believe that `the McGuinty government has done a good job and deserves re-election'. One in ten (9%) do not know with which statement they most closely identify.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television from Aug 7 to Aug 16, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data.

Province-wide, Tories And Grits Move In Lockstep...

The Liberals and the PCs are moving in lockstep, province-wide, with the Liberals under Dalton McGuinty receiving the support of 40% of Ontarians, while John Tory's Progressive Conservatives are in close striking distance with the support of 37% of Ontarians. Since Ipsos Reid's last poll released in June of 2007, both the Grits and the Tories have only managed to increase their support by 1% point each province-wide.

The New Democratic Party under Howard Hampton has the support of 17% of Ontarians, while support for the Green Party under Frank de Jong is receiving the support of 6% of decided voters. Since June, the NDP is holding steady, while the Green Party has dropped 1% point.

Within The GTA...

Within the GTA, the Liberals have moved from 38% in June of this year to 44% support in August, while the Tories have dipped from 39% support in the GTA in June to 34% currently. This represents a 10% point spread between the Liberals (44%) and Progressive Conservatives (34%) in the GTA.

• In the 905, the Liberals have the support of 47% of Ontarians. The PCs trail significantly at 34% support, and the NDP have the support of 13% of Ontarians living in the 905.
• In the 416, the Liberals are still ahead, but by a smaller margin, with the support of 40% of Torontonians. The Tories have the support of 35% of Torontonians, with the NDP trailing at 20% support.

Outside Of The GTA...

Outside of the GTA, the Progressive Conservatives have pulled slightly ahead of the Liberals. The PCs have moved from 34% support in June to 39% support currently, while the Liberals have dipped slightly from 39% to 37% support.

• In Central Ontario, the Liberals have 34% support, while the PCs have 39% support.
• In Eastern Ontario, the Liberals have 44% support and the Progressive Conservatives have 37% support.
• In South-western Ontario, the Liberals have 35% support, while the PCs have 39% support.
• In Northern Ontario, the Progressive Conservatives have pulled ahead, with 41% support, compared to the Liberals 34%. The NDP have 22% support.

Those Most Likely To Support the Liberals...

Below is an analysis indicating those who are more likely to support the Liberals under Dalton McGuinty:

• Women (42%) are more likely than men (37%) to support the Liberals.
• Younger Ontarians, aged 18 to 34, are more likely to support the Liberals (47%) than middle-aged (37%), 35 to 54, or older Ontarians (37%), 55 and older.
• Those with a university degree are most likely (46%) to support the Liberals, compared to those with some post-secondary education (31%) or only a high school diploma or less (44%).

Those Most Likely To Support The Progressive Conservatives...

Below is an analysis indicating those who are more likely to support the Progressive Conservatives under John Tory:

• Men (41%) are more likely than women (33%) to support the PCs.
• Older Ontarians, aged 55 and older, are more likely (44%) to support the Progressive Conservatives than middle-aged Ontarians (41%), aged 35 to 54, or younger Ontarians (24%), aged 18 to 34.
• Those with some post-secondary education are more likely (42%) than those without any post-secondary education (33%) or a university degree (33%) to support the Tories.

Majority (52%) Believe It's Time For A Change...

When presented with two differing opinions of the McGuinty government, a majority (52%) of Ontarians agree that `it is time for another provincial party to take over' in Ontario. On the other hand, four in ten (40%) believe that `the McGuinty government has done a good job and deserves re-election'. One in ten (9%) do not know with which statement they most closely identify.

• 49% of Ontarians with a university degree believe that the McGuinty government has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected, and just 44% of Ontarians with a university degree believe that it is time for change in Ontario. This demographic group is more likely than any other group studied to have this favourable appraisal of the McGuinty government.
• Ontarians aged 18 to 34 are more likely (47%) than Canadians aged 35 to 54 (36%) or Canadians aged 55 and older (37%) to indicate that the McGuinty government has done a good job and deserves re-election.
• Residents of South-western Ontario are most likely of all regions to claim that it is time for another provincial party to take over (55%).
• Middle-aged Canadians are more likely (56%) than younger Canadians (45%) or older Canadians (52%) to agree that it is time for another provincial political party to take over.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

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