Ontario Liberals Poised for Historic Three-Peat Majority

Toronto, ON - With less than two days left before Ontario voters head to the polls, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for Global News, CFRB NewsTalk 1010 and the Ottawa Citizen suggests that the Ontario Liberals are headed back into government at Queen's Park with an assured minority and poised for a potential historic three-peat Majority.

Regardless of what transpires over the next 48 hours, the McGuinty Liberals will govern the province after a third straight election.

The Liberal Party, led by incumbent Premier Dalton McGuinty, would receive 41% among decided voters if the election were held tomorrow, up 3 points since the start of the campaign one month ago. The Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak would receive 31% of the vote, down 6 points since the campaign started. Andrea Horwath and the NDP would garner 25% of the vote (up 1 point), while Mike Schreiner's Green Party would receive just 3% of the vote (up 2 points). One percent (1%) of voters are voting for some other party, and 6% remain undecided in the final days of the campaign.

While the campaign officially began in September, the parties have been actively campaigning since before the summer began. In July, an Ipsos Reid poll showed Hudak with an eleven-point lead, saying that it was Hudak's election to lose. Over the course of the last three months, Hudak's Tories have dropped 11 points, while McGuinty's Liberals have gained 10 points, a complete reversal in fortunes. It is now the incumbent Liberals who are poised for a third-straight majority government.

Examining the vote by region reveals underlying Liberal strength in many areas of the province, including the seat-rich GTA:

• In Toronto proper, the Liberals (47%) hold a commanding lead over the second-place NDP (29%), while the PCs (23%) are running third. The Green Party (1%) trails.
• In the 905 GTA area code surrounding the city, the Liberals (42%) lead the Tories (32%) and the NDP (21%), while the Green Party (4%) lags behind.
• In Central Ontario, the Liberals (36%) and the Progressive Conservatives (35%) are tied, with the NDP (24%) and Green Party (4%) behind.
• In Eastern Ontario, the Grits (50%) lead the Tories (35%), NDP (13%) and Green Party (2%).
• In South-western Ontario, the Liberals (36%), NDP (34%) and PCs (28%) are in a tight three-way race, with the Green Party (1%) trailing.
• In Northern Ontario, the NDP (40%) have the lead with the Liberals (28%) and PCs (28%) tied for second place and the Green Party (2%) behind.

The Liberals are in reach of a majority government, but the deciding factor on Election Day will be the ability of each party to mobilize its supporters and get out and vote. While the majority (59%) of decided voters, overall, are `absolutely certain' that the party they currently support will be the one they support on election day, Tory voters appear most committed to their choice with 66% indicating they're absolutely certain that this is the party they will support, compared with fewer Liberal (62%), NDP (50%), and Green Party (54%) supporters who say they're locked in. However, the gap in overall support is likely too large for the PCs to close, even with the most committed voters in the electorate compared with a less enthusiastic Liberal base.

Four in ten (39%) Ontarians say that `the Liberal government under Premier Dalton McGuinty has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected' (up 1 point since the start of the campaign), a number that typically closely mirrors the proportion of the popular vote for the incumbent government. However, in August of last year, just 30% thought that the Government deserved re-election, meaning that the Premier has convinced enough Ontarians in the last year that his government has done a good job and deserves another term. Conversely, half (53%) currently say that `it is time for another provincial political party to take over and run the province' (down 4 points), but this vote will be split among all the other parties. One in ten (7%) don't know with which statement they most closely identify (up 2 points).

Likely explaining why the Liberals are poised for their third straight victory, a majority (54%) of Ontarians believe that Ontario is `on the right track' (down 4 points), compared to just four in ten (39%) who say its `headed in the wrong direction' (up 5 points). One in ten (7%) aren't sure either way (down 1 point). By comparison, last year, most (68%) Ontarians thought the province was headed in the wrong direction, and few (32%) thought it was headed on the right track.

Absent any major issue that dominated the campaign, this contest was often framed around leadership, and Dalton McGuinty (37%, -2 points) bests his rivals Tim Hudak (27%, -4 points) and Andrea Horwath (25%, +5 points) when it comes to the person Ontarians believe would make the best Premier of the province. One in ten (11%) aren't sure which of the leaders would make the best Premier of Ontario (up 1 point). By comparison, in 2010, Ipsos Reid polling showed Hudak (37%) in the lead over McGuinty (29%) and Horwath (21%).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between September 30 and October 3, 2011, on behalf of Global News, CFRB NewsTalk 1010 and the Ottawa Citizen. A representative, randomly-selected sample of 1,020 adults living in Ontario (including 70 interviews of cellphone sample) was interviewed by telephone. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]

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