The Ontario Political Landscape -- In The Dead Heat Of Summer

Toronto, ON - In the dead heat of one of Ontario's warmest summers on record a new Ipsos-Reid survey provided exclusively to CanWest Global and CFRB indicates Dalton McGuinty's Liberals and John Tory's Conservatives are knotted at 38% each of decided voter support, as Howard Hampton's NDP (18%) and Frank de Jong's Green Party (6%) trail.

When asked whether they believe Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals have Ontario on the "right" or "wrong" track, Ontarians are split: Half (48%, -2 points since January 2005) say they have Ontario on the "right" track, while the other half (47%, +4 points) say they have Ontario on the "wrong" track.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll conducted from July 12th to July 14th, 2005 and provided exclusively to CanWest Global and CFRB. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 758 adult residents of Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual population of Ontario according to the 2001 Census data.
Liberals (38%, +1 Point) And Conservatives (38%, +3 Points) Knotted In The Lead - NDP (18%, Unchanged) And Green Party (6%, -3 Points) Trail Distantly...

If a provincial election in Ontario were held today, the Liberals (38%, +1 point since January 2005) and the Conservatives (38%, +3 points) would be tied in total decided voter support, while the NDP (18%, unchanged) and the Green Party (6%, - 3 points) trail.

Among all Ontarians, 8% are undecided or refused to say whom they would vote for if a provincial election were held.

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• Conservative Party support is highest Central (43%, +8 points) and Eastern Ontario (41%, +8 points), and is lowest in Northern Ontario (29%, +3 points). 183
• Liberal Party support is highest in Eastern Ontario (42%, +7 points) and the GTA (41%, -1 point). 183
• Conservatives still tend to have higher support in rural areas than in urban areas (42% vs. 37%), while Liberals still have higher support in urban areas than in rural areas (40% vs. 33%).

Ontarians Split When It Comes To McGuinty Government's Direction: Half Say It's On Right Track (48%, -2 Points) And Half Say Wrong Track (47%, +4 Points)...

When Ontarians are asked whether they believe the provincial government of Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals has Ontario on the right or wrong track, half answer "right" track (48%, - 2 points) and the other half answer "wrong" track (47%, +4 points). The remaining 5% of Ontarians say they "don't know".

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• Residents of Eastern Ontario (52%, -1 point) and the GTA (50%, -2 points) are the most likely to say the Liberals have Ontario on the right track. 183
• Residents of Northern Ontario (55%, +16 points) and Southwest Ontario (52%, +6 points) are the most likely to say the Liberals have Ontario on the wrong track.

  Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.

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  For more information on this news release, please contact:
  
  John Wright
  Senior Vice-President
  Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
  (416) 324-2900