Passing Fad or Next Big Thing?

Making Wi-Fi a household word

Technology buffs always seem to be looking for the `next big thing.' Much of the buzz of late has been about Wireless Fidelity or Wi-Fi.

Wi-Fi enabled computers can send and receive data wirelessly anywhere within the range of a base station. Wi-Fi can be several times faster than even the speediest cable modem connection.

However, our research shows that very little is known or understood about Wi-Fi. Our recent survey of more than 1,000 Americans found that two-fifths (41%) of respondents were aware of Wi-Fi when described as `a technology that allows people to wirelessly connect computers to the Internet at high speed.' Additionally, three-fifths (58%) indicated an awareness of Wireless Home Networking.

Yet among those who were aware of Wi-Fi or Wireless Home Networking, only 6% were very familiar with Wi-Fi, and 32% were somewhat familiar. The largest percentage of those who were aware `have heard of the name only' (58%).

Not surprisingly, younger Americans, people in high-income households, and males were significantly more likely to be aware of Wi-Fi and Wireless Home Networking.

So, what is Wi-Fi's future? Our research shows that ease of installation and high speed access are two marketing messages that have already been well received by people aware of Wi-Fi - and those messages certainly can be built upon in future marketing campaigns.

However, the general public's understanding of Wi-Fi's installation costs, security issues and the availability of public access points must increase if the technology is to grow, our research shows.

How big is Wi-Fi at the moment? We estimate that about 3% of Americans have Wi-Fi at home. Of those aware of the technology, 14% said they would acquire a Wi-Fi system this year.

Clearly, these numbers are not as high as manufacturers and marketers of Wi-Fi products would like. Although Wi-Fi awareness is very high for an early stage technology, its benefits and capabilities are much less well understood. Educating the public will be key.

That said, we believe that the basis for a Wi-Fi take-off is evident. Here's why Wi-Fi is poised to be "the next big thing:"

• Convenience. The sheer convenience of accessing the Internet without tethers in the home or public locations;
• Speed. Faster connection speeds than even today's fastest broadband offerings;
• Affordability. The cost of both hardware and software is reasonable, typically less than $150;
• Ease. Most new hardware will be Wi-Fi equipped.

Where does Wi-Fi go from here?

Making people more aware of Wi-Fi public access points in a variety of places--coffee shops and airports, for example--should speed up adoption.

More consumers should begin to learn about Wi-Fi as more manufacturers embed the technology into more products.

Wireless Internet service providers will have to provide attractive pricing plans if the technology is to develop broad appeal--well beyond the corporate world. These service providers will be competing for disposable income already being spent on home Internet access, wireless phones, cable and a host of technology gadgets.

We believe that this will be a telling year for Wi-Fi technology. Why?

As more public areas add "hot spots"--and more people adopt wireless routers for the home, Wi-Fi technology should leave its current nascent stage and firmly take root.

If the cost of entry continues to fall, and public understanding of it grows, Wi-Fi should become a household word by 2005.