Premier Wynne Making Good First Impression,
But Ontario Liberals Appear to Have Lost Their Lustre
If a provincial election were held tomorrow, 37% of decided voters would support Tim Hudak and the Progressive Conservative Party. Andrea Horwath's NDP (29%) and Kathleen Wynne's Liberals (28%) are in a dead heat for second place, while 6% would vote for some other party, including the Green Party. Nearly two in ten (17%) Ontarians, overall, don't know who they would support or lean towards, meaning that there is opportunity for things to change significantly going forward. It's likely that Wynne and Horwath aren't yet clearly defined in the electorate's mind, and so the campaign and the ballot questions which define these two leaders will be crucial in determining the outcome of an election.
It is worth noting that in the lead up to the fall 2011 General Election in Ontario, Tim Hudak's Tories were as high as 42% support in Ipsos Reid surveys conducted in the summer of 2011. So while the PCs are ahead, they're still far off their highs of 2011 in an election they ended up losing. In contrast, this is the highest that the NDP have polled in the province in a very long time, having only reached support in the mid-20's in the last election cycle. This is setting the province up for a three-way dog fight - similar to the current dynamics in the federal political scene.
That the Liberals are not doing well, despite Kathleen Wynne's initial popularity, is likely due to two fundamental things:
- A majority (54%) of Ontarians believe that the province is `headed in the wrong direction' compared to 46% who think things are `on the right track'.
- Two thirds (66%) of Ontarians more closely believe that it is `time for another political party to take over', while just one in three (34%) believe the `government has done a good job and deserves re-election'.
Reflecting on Kathleen Wynne...
Kathleen Wynne took over the reins of the Liberal Party in February 2013. Reflecting on her performance in the past two months, six in ten (59%) `agree' (12% strongly/48% somewhat) that she is `doing a good job'. Conversely, a minority (41%) `disagrees' (13% strongly/28% somewhat) that she is `doing a good job'.
Ontarians think positively about Premier Wynne in other respects as well:
- Two in three (66%) `agree' (14% strongly/52% somewhat) that she is `fair and reasonable', while one in three (33%) `disagree' (10% strongly/23% somewhat) with this assessment.
- A majority (54%) `agree' (11% strongly/43% somewhat) that she is `addressing the issues that matter most to me', while a minority (46%) `disagrees' (16% strongly/30% somewhat) that she is.
- A majority (53%) `agrees' (12% strongly/41% somewhat) that she `has a style I like', while a minority (47%) `disagrees' (17% strongly/30% somewhat) that she does.
Comparing the Party Leaders...
Highlighting the potential for a tight three-way race in Ontario is that there is no clear front-runner that Ontarians perceive as the best Premier. In fact, all three major party leaders are statistically tied. Three in ten (32%) believe PC Leader Tim Hudak or current Premier Kathleen Wynne (32%) would make the best Premier of Ontario, while similar proportions believe the same about NDP Leader Andrea Horwath (30%). Six percent (6%) believe that Mike Schreiner, leader of the Green Party, would make the best Premier of Ontario. Ontarians were asked to identify which party leader is best described by various traits, and in many areas there is basically a three-way tie. Below is how Ontarians rated the various party leaders:
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between April 12 to 17, 2013, on behalf of the National Post, Global Television and CFRB Radio NewsTalk 1010. For this survey, a sample of 1,360 Ontarians, from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3 percentage points had all adults in Ontario been surveyed. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]
About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.
About Ipsos
Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world's third largest market research company.
With offices in 85 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,789 billion (2.300 billion USD) in 2012.
