In Presidential Election, Canadians Would Elect Democrats (55%) in Landslide Victory over Republicans (17%) and Independent Candidates (28%)

Toronto, ON - If Canadians could vote in the US presidential election, they would hand the Democrats (55%) a landslide victory over the republicans (17%) and independent candidates (28%), according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News. Even among Canadian Conservative Party voters, the Democrats (41%) would defeat the Republicans (36%) and independent candidates (23%) if they could vote.

In every region of Canada, a majority or plurality would vote for the Democrats, leading with 63% in BC, followed by those in Quebec (57%), Ontario (53%), Atlantic Canada (52%), Alberta (51%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (44%). The Republicans are strongest (but still defeated) in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (23%), followed by Ontario (19%), BC (17%), Alberta (17%), Atlantic Canada (15%) and Quebec (14%).

Ipsos has often polled Canadians about US politics, and Canadians continue to endorse the Democrats. In November of 2012, nine in ten (90%) Canadians believed Barrack Obama would retain the presidency, and 86% would have voted for him if they could. Around the time of President Obama's first inauguration, three quarters (76%) of Canadians believed that the election of Barack Obama as President of the United States was a `good thing' --up a full 50 points compared with data collected on the eve of President George W. Bush's second inauguration in 2004 when only 26% thought his re-election was a `good thing'.

While Canadians are likely watching the US Republican Primary campaign with a mix of amusement and amazement, the poll has found that if Canadians could vote in the Republican Primary election, Donald Trump would still be the lead candidate.

While most (69%) Canadians say they don't know who they'd vote for in the Republican primaries, among those who have an opinion, Donald Trump (38%) is well ahead of his closest rival Jeb Bush (22%), while all other candidates barely register.

Among Canadians who chose a candidate for the Republican Primary election, the following table outlines the candidates tested and their respective share of the popular vote received.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between August 24 to 26, 2015 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians eligible to vote was interviewed online via the Ipsos I-Say Panel. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

About Ipsos in Canada

Ipsos is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos' marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

With offices in 86 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,669.5 ($2,218.4 million) in 2014.

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos' offerings and capabilities.